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Bedard Back to the Mariners
The Seattle Mariners re-signed pitcher Erik Bedard to an incentive laden contract recently. Bedard, who recently had surgery on his shoulder, will likely be out until at least May. At that time he will slot into the third spot in the rotation behind Felix Hernandex and Cliff Lee. It is a good low-risk, high-reward signing for Jack Zduriencik (with all the moves he’s done this off-season, you’d think I would have memorized how to spell his name by now).
So how does Seattle’s (May) rotation stack up with the other AL West teams?
Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
LA Angels
Jared Weaver
Joe Saunders
Ervin Santana
Scott Kazmir
Joel Pineiro
Oakland Athletics
Ben Sheets
Justin Duchscherer
Brian Anderson
Dallas Braden
Trevor Cahill
Texas Rangers
Scott Feldman
Rich Harden
Colby Lewis
Derek Holland
Tommy Hunter
Seattle’s top two looks like it is better than any other top two in the AL West. If Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer bounce back, they’ll combine with the emerging Brian Anderson to form a top three that could rival that of Seattle’s, but that’s asking a lot. The Angels have the most depth, at least by name status. Whereas the Rangers’ rotation looks the worst of these four. But you can’t under-estimate the stuff of Rich Harden, Derek Holland, and Neftali Feliz.
What’s your pick for the top rotation in the AL West?
Getting the Most out of TBO
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Outside Links:
- Cot’s Baseball Contracts - a great reference for contracts information.
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Justin Verlander signs Long Term
As you’ve heard by now, Justin Verlander has signed a 5-year, $80 million contract. Also, as other blogs are stating, he’s not worth more than Felix Hernandez or Zack Greinke. Still, it’s just $2 million more than Hernandez’ contract. But how does this impact the rest of the team moving forward?
As I discussed late last season, Tigers fans can be more at ease as they look forward to the coming years. After 2010, the Tigers will not have Nate Robertson ($10 million), Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5 million), potentially Brandon Inge ($6.6 million) and Magglio Ordonez ($18 million, $15 million vesting option for 2011 unlikely) on the payroll. That’s $44.1 million off the payroll before counting in arbitration raises and escalating contracts.
Going forward, the team should have a decent young team and money to fill in spots around them. Despite overpaying for Jose Valverde, the Tigers should have a good young bullpen nucleus of Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Phil Coke, and eventually Cody Satterwhite and Robbie Weinhardt.
Verlander will lead a young rotation that includes Max Scherzer, who could be a very good #2 pitcher if his arm holds together. Rick Porcello impressed quite a few people in his rookie season, and though it’s doubtful he’ll return to his 2008 form, Armando Gallaraga could be a viable innings-eater out of the fourth spot.
Offensively, Miguel Cabrera can be routinely trusted to be the offensive leader of this team. Ryan Raburn hit .310 with a .933 OPS after the break last season. But they also have young, cheap youth contributing around the diamond. Second baseman Scott Sizemore, catcher Alex Avila, and centerfielder Austin Jackson are decent talents, but are doubtful to break the bank as they eventually head through their arbitration years down the road.
That leaves possible holes at short, third, right field. Sure, Verlander’s salary is going to take up a chunk of the $44 million coming off the books. But the team should be out from under some bad contracts next winter and have the funds to fill the holes they need to, making them solid favorites to make a run in 2011 and for the next couple seasons after that.
That is, if Dave Dombrowski doesn’t pull a Dontrelle Willis / Nate Robertson between now and then.
Notes on Misc. Signings – 1/1/10 to 1/15/10
There have been a number of smaller signings that I haven’t had the ability to give their proper attention to in a single post, so I am going to look back at the first 15 days of 2010 and provide a quick opinion on each before I move on to the most recent signings. Comments on other previous signings can be found here or here.
Chicago Cubs sign Marlon Byrd - This is discussed in depth here.
Atlanta Braves sign Troy Glaus- The Braves needed a right-handed power bat, Glaus fits that mold. But he hasn’t played much at first and we’re not sure if he can still hit after recovering from last year’s injury issues. It’s a gamble, but a relatively low-cost gamble.
San Francisco Giants sign Juan Uribe- Although I am not a big fan of GM Brian Sabean’s moves, he got lucky with Uribe last season. Sabean didn’t spend too much to keep him around. With all the position players that Sabean signed this off-season, Uribe may be in a super-utility role a good 400 or so at-bat fit for him.
Philadelphia Phillies sign Danys Baez – Baez isn’t the setup man he once was, but he should be a decent role-player in the pen. Everyone will point out that he has closing experience, but most of it was a while ago.
New York Mets sign Jason Bay – This is discussed in depth here.
Washington Nationals sign Matt Capps- He has a long ways to go to prove that he’ll be a viable closer. The young Nationals starters need to have a solid presence at the back of that pen, Capps isn’t it.
Oakland Athletics sign Jack Cust- “Why can’t I quit you, Jack?” Beane has the younger, cheaper Fox, but just can’t quit Jack.
Boston Red Sox sign Adrian Beltre – This is discussed in depth here.
Kansas City Royals sign Scott Podsednik – GM Dayton Moore didn’t fulfill his new year’s resolution.
St. Louis Cardinals sign Matt Holliday – This is discussed in depth here.
Texas Rangers sign Vladimir Guerrero – Vlad can still hit, putting his bat in Arlington will give him some nice numbers if he stays out of the field. Good signing by Texas.
Cincinnati Reds sign Ardolis Chapman – This one still surprises me.
San Francisco Giants sign Aubrey Huff- Why didn’t you just keep Ryan Garko? Please Sabean tell me why?
Arizona Diamondbacks sign Adam LaRoche – Great bargain signing for the D-Backs if he puts up the overall total he had last season.
Notes on Misc. Signings – 12/21/09 to 12/31/09
There have been a number of smaller signings that I haven’t had the ability to give their proper attention to in a single post, so I am going to look back at the last ten days of 2009 and provide a quick opinion on each before I move on to this year’s signings. Comments on other previous signings can be found on an earlier post.
Baltimore Orioles sign Garrett Atkins – $4.5 million is a little hefty for a guy that didn’t hit well in the thin air of Colorado last season. Hopefully, Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes, or Brandon Snyder will emerge.
Texas Rangers sign Darren Oliver – Although aging, Oliver has been a solid lefty in the pen the last three seasons.
Washington Nationals sign Jason Marquis – This signing is talked about here.
New York Yankees sign Nick Johnson - The OBP machine gets to go back to the organization that drafted him. Surprisingly, Johnson had 457 at bats last season, the second most in his career. Still, keeping him at DH might keep him off the DL.
Oakland Athletics sign Coco Crisp – Still scratching my head on this one. Does Billy Beane have Zduriencik fever?
Los Angeles Angels sign Fernando Rodney – Look past the guy’s saves and he wasn’t that impressive. A 1.47 WHIP is not what you want from your setup man.
Washington Nationals sign Eddie Guardado – “Everyday Eddie” will get a chance….doubt he’ll close, but he’ll get a chance to stick in that pen.
New York Mets sign Kelvim Escobar – The only scouting report on Escobar that I’ve seen is good. This may be a decent signing for the Mets.
Arizona Diamondbacks sign Bob Howry – He threw well for the Giants last season, why not?
San Francisco Giants sign Mark DeRosa – This signing is talked about here.
Oakland Athletics sign Justin Duchscherer - A good, incentives-laden contract that gives him the make-good opportunity he needs to re-establish his value for when he hits the free agent market again after next season.
Arizona Diamondbacks sign Kelly Johnson – Good, low-end protection signing. Although the team would love to have Tony Abreu step up and take the second base position full-time, Johnson will be there if he doesn’t perform. Kelly’s ability to play the outfield and even short may make him a useful utility player if Abreu does step up.
Trade Bait: Taveras to Oakland
Yesterday the Oakland Athletics traded infielder Aaron Miles and a PTBNL to the Cincinnati Reds for outfielder Willy Taveras and infielder Adam Rosales. It was a move that had me intially thinking they were wanting to move to a professional softball league. The A’s were already overflowing with a batch of light-hitting 4th or 5th outfielders starting or coming in off the bench, why add another?
But Billy Beane quickly DFA’d Taveras, showing that he’d made the trade as essentially a $1.3 million purchase of Adam Rosales. Once Taveras likely reaches free agency, he’ll be available to become someone’s fourth or fifth outfielder, a position more fitting to his abilities.
The Reds have cleared $1.3 million in this move that presumably opened up payroll space for them to sign Orlando Cabrera to play short. Miles should be a somewhat useful utility infielder for the Reds and should hit closer to a .270/.315/.350 line if Baker doesn’t expose him too much. The trade also clarifies that centerfield is Drew Stubbs’ to lose.
But just when Beane put me at ease with his DFA of Taveras, he goes out and signs Gabe Gross. Billy Beane is officially off his rocker.
Rookies to Look For: Esmil Rogers
Colorado, once a barren wasteland for pitching, has been starting to churn out some decent young pitchers lately. One of the next in line to head to Denver is Esmil Rogers, a 23-year-old former position player – turned pitcher.
Rogers was originally signed by the Rockies as a shortstop out of the Dominican Republic in 2003. But after three years Esmil had only a .209 career batting average the Rockies were willing to try to convert him to a pitcher. He has continued to improve every season since switching to the mound in 2006. At Double-A last season Rogers allowed 87 hits in 94.1 innings, while striking out 83. The Rockies then promoted him to Triple-A, where he started to fall apart in the thin Colorado Springs air (7.42 ERA).
Esmil has a low-to-mid-90s fastball that can touch 97 occasionally, a good curve, and a change-up in the works. If he continues to improve the change, Rogers could see time in the back of the Rockies rotation by mid-season in 2010.
Rainy Day Reading: Bad Contract White Elephant
Dave Cameron’s work on FanGraphs is always a good read. A couple months ago I came across yet another good article from him called, “Bad Contract White Elephant“. In it, he gives a light-hearted suggestion for a bad contract version of the White Elephant gift exchange:
…..the 28 teams that don’t qualify for the World Series send their General Manager to a large conference room, not unlike what the NFL uses for the draft. Each GM brings one contract, places it in a pile, and prepares for Bad Contract White Elephant.
Read the entire article if you have a chance. It’s a funny concept but one that makes you really think….what would’ve the 28 teams not involved in the World Series brought to the table? Here’s some suggestions:
Red Sox – Mike Lowell, David Ortiz – Lowell’s defense has declined and he’s injured.
Rays – Pat Burrell
Blue Jays – Vernon Wells….Duh
Baltimore – Ty Wigginton
Twins – Matt Guerrier – Just arbitration eligible, but they don’t really have a bad contract.
Tigers – Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, etc. – There’s a number of bad contracts, but Willis’ is the worst.
White Sox – Scott Linebrink or Paul Konerko – Neither is awfully bad.
Indians – Travis Hafner, Kerry Wood, Fausto Carmona- Has to be Hafner.
Royals – Jose Guillen
Angels – Gary Mathews Jr.’s remaining salary - Silly Mets took the player and some of his salary already.
Rangers – Michael Young
Mariners – Milton Bradley
Athletics – Eric Chavez
Marlins – Logan Kensing – How can you cut and slash from a team without much for high played players?
Braves – Derek Lowe
Mets – Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo – Oliver Perez, hands down.
Nationals – Christian Guzman
Cardinals – Kyle Lohse
Cubs – Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Silva – Long, expensive contract or batting practice?
Brewers – Jeff Suppan
Reds – Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo – Similar contracts, similar inconsistent pitching.
Astros – Carlos Lee
Pirates – Paul Maholm – Not that bad of a contract, but most of their bad contracts are gone.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez? – His production has dropped, he’s not worth ~$20 million anymore.
Rockies – Todd Helton
Giants – Barry Zito
Padres – Chris Young – Only because they are cost-cutting and he’s injured too much.
Diamondbacks – Chris Young – Eric Byrnes was DFA’d, so it’s Young, who they’re stuck with for a while.
A few teams don’t have much for bad contracts. I had to pick arbitration eligible players on the Twins and the Marlins that have a chance to be non-tendered. There’s a few teams that you may actually have to think about it a little.
Ben Sheets’ Signing a Calculated Move?
Billy Beane is starting to go wild with this pitching and defense scheme he has this off-season. His recent signing of Coco Crisp setup an outfield of Rajai Davis, Coco, and Ryan Sweeney, three plus defenders. He’s also improved the team’s defense at the hot corner with Kevin Kouzmanoff. With all these moves the Athletics’ pitching staff must be ecstatic.
Now Billy Beane has put the crowning touches on his off-season moves with the signing of Ben Sheets. Ben, sat out all of last season with an elbow injury, impressed numerous scouts in a recent throwing session. It was enough to start a bidding war that ended up with Sheets signing a one-year $10 million contract.
If sheets really is as good as he looked to scouts, the A’s will have a formidable staff. Sheets will join re-sign Justin Duchscherer and the rest of the young, but talented Athletics rotation could have a good season ahead of them.
| ERA | WHIP | ||
| Ben Sheets | 3.09 | 1.15 | (2008) |
| Justin Duchscherer | 2.54 | 1.00 | (2008) |
| Brett Anderson | 3.48 | 1.19 | (After 2009 All-Star Break) |
| Dallas Braden | 3.89 | 1.36 | |
| Trevor Cahill | 4.63 | 1.44 |
Of course there’s a lot of hope in these figures. Hope that Sheets and Duchscherer can return to their 2008 form and hope that Anderson continues to develop into a star pitcher. But it is possible, especially considering the improved defense and the fact that Anderson, Braden, and Cahill are becoming more experienced.
But was this move really about the 2010 season? Sure the defense and pitching look decent, but the offense may be nearly as bad as last season. With the two injury recovery signings being one-year contracts, Beane may be setting up the two pitchers as trade bait. Looking closer at it, they are two pitchers that had very good 2008 seasons, will pitch in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, and will have a plus defense behind them. They are set up to excel and be traded at a premium for pieces that should help the team in the long-term.
You never know, the next Dan Haren could come out of the trade of one of these two.
Rookies to Look For: David Freese
With all the talk about Matt Holliday’s long term deal and how the Cardinals have little money left to fill the remaining holes in the roster, I felt it was appropriate to discuss in depth one of the spots the team is hoping that they won’t have to find a veteran bat to fill. Third base has been a tough spot for the Cardinals recently as Scott Rolen was shipped to Toronto (and then Cincy), Troy Glaus went down with an injury, and Mark DeRosa played with an injury after he was traded to the team last summer.
But all of those players are now off the roster and the team doesn’t have the financial room to chase a high-dollar free agent to fill the spot (Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins are gone anyway). But they do have a prospect waiting in the wings to take over the hot corner, David Freese.
Freese was drafted in the ninth round by the San Diego Padres. A first baseman in college, the Padres shifted him to third, thinking that he’d be at least average at the position. Freese hit well initially:
2006: Low-A – .379/.465/.776 in 71 PA
2006: A – .299/.371/.510 in 230 PA
2007: High-A – .302/.400/.489 in 592 PA
Although Freese graduated from high school in Wildwood, MO, in St. Louis County, it was his hitting that probably drew the interest of the Cardinals and they traded Jim Edmonds for him in December of 2007. He came over and played well for the Cardinals as well. Freese hit .306 with 26 homers and 91 RBIs at Triple-A in 2008, drawing many to believe that he’d take over for the injured Glaus out of Spring Training. But an ankle injury kept him from completing that task.
It’s of course his hitting skills that have drawn the interest of Cardinals fans. Although his strikeouts have risen to the point that they are a concern, Freese has shown that he can hit for a decent average and power. He’s not going to be a star, but .275 with 20-25 home runs may be his average season if he can control the strikeouts.
Defensively, he’s still a work in progress. He’ll be an improvement over Glaus, but he probably won’t ever obtain a Gold Glove. His arm is decent, hands are average, but his range is lacking. Freese still needs work on his overall technique as well.
Although David Freese won’t be a star, he should be a decent third baseman. He’s cheap too Cardinals fans.
