The Detroit Tigers have sent shudders throughout the baseball world. With the signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million contract, Fielder is set to become the Tigers next first baseman.

Of course, becoming the team’s next first baseman is the head-scratcher. The team already happens to have a hitter by the name of Miguel Cabrera that just happened to come in 5th in the AL MVP race in 2011 (and that was with many Detroit-centric votes that would go towards him shifted the to actual winner, Justin Verlander). Sure, Cabrera’s only had one positive UZR at first in four seasons, but Fielder’s no Kieth Hernandez. According to FanGraphs, he’s actually been worse at first over the past four seasons than Cabrera.

But let’s not forget Victor Martinez, at least we haven’t, but Tigers management apparently has. With Martinez returning next season, the Tigers will have three DH types and only one DH spot to fill. Even before Alex Avila‘s emergence, Martinez was already destined to spend more time at DH and first base than behind the plate. Now what?

• Trade Cabrera, his contract, and his past personal issues after the season….who needs leverage in trade talks?
• Move Cabrera to 3B (and put on a blindfold), where he hasn’t played an inning since 2008?
• Move him to left field (and double-up the blindfold), where he hasn’t played since 2005?
• Sign David Ortiz next winter to have four of a kind. It’s at least a good poker hand….

…and let’s not even get started on the length of Fielder’s contract. I already addressed the issue of a lengthy contract for Fielder in a previous post about him. The last two to four seasons are not likely to be pretty.

But hey, it’s the owners that want to be nostalgic and bring Cecil’s son to the Motor City, it’s just Dave Dombroski’s job to make the rest of the roster fit. Good luck Dave!

MLB.com has recently started rolling out it’s list of the top 10 players from each position. They started with starting pitching, to which I had little desire to rebuke. But once it got to the top 10 first basemen, that’s when I thought it was time to put in my two cents.

Here’s my list:

1. Anthony Rizzo
2. Yonder Alonso
3. Jonathan Singleton
4. Matt Adams
5. C.J. Cron
6. Clint Robinson
7. Neftali Soto
8. Chris Carter
9.  Joe Terdoslavich
10. Alex Dickerson
11. Daniel Vogelbach

Although I agree with the site’s top three picks, there’s  some discussion about those further down the line. Adams switches places with Cron in this lineup. He’s proven himself against more advanced pitching and has established a proven track record of hitting everywhere he goes. Cron may have a much higher ceiling, but he also has to prove himself out of the the Pioneer League, which should have been a walk in the park for him at 21.

Possibly one of the biggest surprises is that Chris Parmelee is completely off this list. Chris put up better numbers in 2011, but he was also repeating Double-A. Also, although he has a good walk rate, I highly doubt he will hit for average in the majors and he doesn’t hit for much power.

His replacement at #6 may be just as surprising. Clint Robinson doesn’t get enough credit in my eyes. Sure, he’s 26 and doesn’t field well, but a team willing to put up with his defense or has an open DH spot should take a long look at him.

Like Parmelee I doubt Soto’s ability to hit for an average or to take a walk, but there’s no doubting his power. Regardless of the thunder in his stick, I am tempted to move him down near the basement of this list. I just don’t think he’ll hit major league pitching. That could also be said for Carter who hasn’t proven himself in the majors yet, but I still believe that he has the ability to hit well enough to be valuable to a team….especially if he settles in to a single defensive position.

The next two I somewhat liken to each other. Terdoslavich is one year further along than Dickerson at this point and we’ve seen the results out of the switch hitter so far. Although Dickerson disappointed some with his lack of power, check out Joe’s power numbers from his age 21 season. Alex could easily move past Joe this year.

I couldn’t just round out the list at 10 though, Vogelbach intrigued me. He put up some very nice numbers in a limited scope in 2011. Dan could certainly move up past Soto’s spot in this list by the end of the 2012 season. But the numbers are too limited right now to move him higher.

It’s rare that a Yankees’ starting pitching prospect hangs around long enough to reach professional maturity for the major league club. Most of their starting pitching prospects are traded for an established impact starter. But lately the Yankees have been a little more patient with their pitching prospects, somewhat out of mid-season injury/inconsistency necessity, but also, they have some talent to try out. Ivan Nova established himself in the Yankees rotation last season. Phil Hughes has had the talent to become a regular member of the starting staff, he just hasn’t put it all together for a full season yet. Then there’s the top two pitching prospects in their minor league system, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos.

The latter of the two is a lefty that is knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. He flaunts three good pitches; a 91-95mph fastball, a very good change with sinking, screwball-like action when on, and a nice curve.

Yet, for all the talent, Banuelos has some issues with his command. Some say that he could still develop into a Gio Gonzalez-type who thrives despite his control issues. MLB.com even ranks him as the second best lefty starting prospect in the game. I’m not as high on Banuelos. Though I agree that he is one of the top left-handed starting pitching prospects in the game, I’m not sold on his long-term projection. He seems to be a future #3 starter, or #4 on a team like the Yankees. He’ll likely have a few peak seasons that will put his value higher, but the lack of control is an issue that cannot be overlooked. Just as I think Gio Gonzalez due for a reality check, Manny will have issues with patient lineups.

As for the 2012 season, the Yankees’ mid-January moves have set back Manny’s chances at a regular rotation spot for the season. The recent acquisitions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda have shifted two of Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes to the bullpen. They will likely lean whoever is moved to the pen for spot starts and long-term injury replacements during the season. This will give Banuelos the entire season to hone his craft on a regular basis in Triple-A, allowing him to work on improvements to his control before possibly getting a chance next season. Kuroda and Garcia will be free agents at the end of the season and taking on a portion Burnett’s contract may be more palatable to another team with only the 2013 season remaining. It’s highly possible that Manny toes the rubber on a regular basis in the Bronx in 2013.

The recent MLB Winter Meetings, combined with the trade that sent Carlos Quentin to the Padres reminded me of the last time that Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes hooked up in a Quentin trade, the 2007 Winter Meetings. Only one “major” trade took place during the meetings, but the four other trades had impacts of their own down the road.

1. Tigers Trade for Miguel Cabrera

Tigers Received:
3B Miguel Cabrera
LHP Dontrelle Willis

Marlins Received:
OF Cameron Maybin
LHP Andrew Miller
C Mike Rabelo
RHP Eulogio De La Cruz
RHP Burke Badenhop
RHP Dallas Trahern

This was obviously the deal of the Winter Meetings. Cabrera has been an offensive powerhouse for the Tigers and has been mentioned in the AL MVP vote about every season he’s been there. Willis is another story, he fell apart after moving to Detroit and was never the dominant pitcher he once was. Regardless, Dombrowski extended him and paid dearly for it. He found limited success last season, but not with the Tigers.

Maybin struggled in Florida, but a change of scenery in San Diego has helped. The Marlins received to relievers on their end for him. Andrew Miller was ineffective and has since been traded to Boston. Rabelo spent some time as a backup catcher for the Marlins, but never hit enough to hold the position long enough.

Cruz was bounced around in a number of roles and found him self on the Padres and the Brewers after the trade. He did have some success this season in Milwaukee’s pen, though it was a Bey limited sample. Badenhop has been the most useful of the three eighties in this deal, pitching over 50 innings out of the pen the past couple seasons before being traded to the Rays this winter. Trahern never hit his stride and therefore never reached the majors.

This trade was an obvious win for the Tigers, even with Willie’s ineffectiveness and contract as well as Cabrera’s off field issues.
2. White Sox pick up Hard Hittin’ Carlos Quentin

White Sox Received:
OF Carlos Quentin

Diamondbacks Received:
1B Chris Carter

Since Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes teamed up to trade Carlos Quentin again this winter, reviewing this trade seems appropriate. From a player to player comparison, Kenny Williams obviously won this trade for the White Sox as Quentin has been a productive middle of the order bat for the team since he was traded for. His defense on the other hand….

Carter was D-Back property for 11 days as he was flipped to Oakland as part of a trade for Dan Haren. Although Byrnes didn’t win by value for value, he used Carter’s value at the time as a piece to land Haren, Carter’s value has since dropped. Chris has since had some decent seasons in the minors, but hasn’t excelled in the majors. He will have to push past a potential “Four-A” hitter label this season if he wishes to have a Major League career.

3. Nationals obtain Clippard

Yankees Received:
RP Jonathan Albaladejo

Nationals Received:
SP Tyler Clippard

The Yankees were looking for a pitcher to fill a middle relief role. Albaladejo was a hard thrower that performed well in an audition with the Nationals in 2007, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. But the walks hit him hard in New York and he never posted a WHIP below 1.50 in parts of three seasons with the Yankees. Clippard on the other hand would eventually move into a role that the Yankees would’ve loved for Albaladejo to develop into. He has become the setup man for the back-end of the bullpen and has even closed a few games. Tyler has excelled in relief and had his best season yet in 2011 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.838 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and an All Star Game appearance.

4. Braves Snatch Infante

Braves Recieved:
IF Omar Infante
LHP Will Ohman

Cubs Recieved:
RHP Jose Ascanio

The Braves filled their short-term needs with this deal. Ohman was a vaible lefty out of the pen in 2008 and saw a career high in innings pitched, along with career lows in BB/9 and HR/9. He left via free agency after the season. Infante had three very good seasons as a utility infielder in Atlanta, including an All Star selection in 2010. He was then used in the Dan Uggla deal after that season.

Ascaino’s 2007 season at Double-A proved to be an abberation and he wasn’t successful  in various trips to the Majors with the Cubs and then the Pirates.

5. Nationals pick up Hazardous Dukes

This was a tough one to decide on as the rest of the trades didn’t really help any team much. The Freddy Guzman for Chris Shelton trade was intriguing as I was always interested in Guzman and his speed (90 SB in the minors in 2003). But both players became “Four-A” players during their peak. The Tigers traded Jose Capellan to the Rockies for Denny Bautista. Everyone drooled over Bautista’s strikeouts during his career, but his walks were loathsome. Although he pitched to a 3.32 ERA in Detroit, his 1.526 WHIP didn’t make him a keeper. Finally, it was settled that the Elijah Dukes to the Nationals trade had the biggest impact, in more ways than one.

Nationals Received:
OF Elijah Dukes

Rays Received:
LHP Glenn Gibson

Dukes was known for his hot head as much as his potential talent. The Nationals gave him his best chance in the Majors and he hit a respectable .256/.359/.430 in two seasons, including an .864 OPS in 2008. He didn’t hit that well in his second season there and spent plenty of time in the minors. Dukes hasn’t been back to the Majors since.

Gibson fell apart after moving to the Rays. He displayed a very nice 1.069 WHIP in Low-A for Nationals system before being shipped out, but a 1.894 for the Rays the next year. He never returned to the success he had in 2007.

Each month TBO provides the Kila Ka’aihue Award to one ball player who’s path to the majors has been blocked by an existing player in his position, or just by the sheer…..general discretion of the front office staff. Sure, the player may never result in a regular in the majors, but they should at least get their chance somewhere.

Starting pitching is a relatively tough area to award a Kila Ka’aihue Award to. If you pitch well enough, you are more than likely good enough to replace the major league team’s fifth starter, become an injury replacement, or will fit into the bullpen. Pitching is always needed and a decent starting pitcher is rarely blocked. But perusing through the PCL statistics I found one starter that should get an extended chance in the majors, Brandon Dickson of the Memphis Cardinals.

Amongst qualifying starting pitchers in the PCL, ”Cotton” was third in the league in WHIP (1.28) and 5th overall in ERA (3.95). Although those stats are decent, but not mind-boggling good, they have to be taken in context, the PCL is a hitter-friendly league.

FutureRedbirds.net has a very good write-up on Dickson from 2010 and he seems to have improved since then. With a low-90s sinking fastball, a curve, and an “improving changeup”, Dickson has a three pitch mix that has gotten him to Triple-A and a cup-of-coffee in St. Louis. His strikeout rate has increased each season since 2008 and his walk rate has each season since then as well.

In a recent post on Minor League Ball, John Sickels provided a preliminary ranking of the Cardinals prospects for 2012. Dickson came in 18th on the list. Sickels noted:

18) Brandon Dickson, RHP, Grade C+: You probably won’t see him this high on other lists, as an older prospect without first-class stuff. But he throws strikes, and could surprise us with a surprising run of success if given a little luck and defensive support. There are many guys with higher upside in the system that you could list here instead, but I wanted to draw notice to Dickson.

All that said, would Dickson survive as a 5th starter? It’s possible, on a poor team, but more likely he would fit in a big league team as a relief pitcher. With a move to the pen it is possible that Brandon could add a couple mph to his fastball. When combined with his already very good ground ball tendencies, Dickson may be a decent middle-relief arm in the pen down the road. He just needs an extended chance.

Anyone getting the feeling that the major league front offices are starting to become one big fraternity? Theo Epstien’s regime, that came from Boston, just traded with a GM in San Diego (Josh Byrnes) who used to be an assistant under Theo as well as the current Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, for a player who was originally drafted by Boston.

Recently, the Cubs traded young pitcher right-hander Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na to the San Diego Padres for first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates.

Rizzo, of course, is the centerpiece of this deal as he was a notable portion of the Adrian Gonzalez trade from the Padres to the Red Sox last winter and he has recently been displaced by the Mat Latos deal that brought Yonder Alonzo to play first base in San Diego. Though I’m not convinced he’s going to hit for a good average, he should be a good middle of the order hitter for the Cubs down the road.

Cates didn’t make Baseball America‘s top 10 list for the Padres for 2012, nor did he make the top 25 on Minor League Ball‘s preliminary list, though he was mentioned under “others”. But he ranked 16th on Minor League Ball’s prospect list for the Cubs (posted after the trade), stating that he has a live arm and could be a breakout candidate. He has a good fastball with a plus change, but he’s still working on his curveball.

Cashner is a power arm that could be an could be a candidate for the rotation, but that is doubtful anymore with his injury history. It is more likely that Cashner settles in towards the back of the bullpen for San Diego. But it is not all bad, he has the stuff that he could eventually be pretty good out of a setup role and possibly close out games.

Na is an outfielder with virtually no power and was caught in 1/3 of his stolen base attempts. On the good side, he’s only 19, very young for a player at Double-A and he produces a good walk rate. Regardless, he seems to be a forth or more likely fifth outfielder at this point. There’s an outside chance that he learns to steal bases efficiently and hits for a higher average as he matures, but I’d rather bet on Cates’s chance at success.

Anyone can tell you that if you can trade a reliever for a position player, do it. That adage is true with even this trade. If I had a belief that Cashner could stay healthy in a starting role, this trade would be much closer, but Andrew hasn’t sold me on that in his short career. The most interesting part of this trade though is that the Cubs intend to give first base to Bryan LaHair after his tremendous season at Triple-A last year, giving Rizzo a little more seasoning in the minors. Maybe they’re hopeful that LaHair will be able to produce well enough to draw some trade interest at some point during the season before they bring Rizzo up.

Once again, the Miami Marlins are making a big splash in an effort to improve their team for 2012. They are hoping to catch lightening in a bottle by trading for the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano. It is an interesting move considering “Big Z’s” explosive personality and the fact that he hasn’t pitched as dominantly has he has in the past.

The Miami Marlins will only have to pay Zambrano $2.5 million of the $18 million he is owed. There’s also been a restructuring of his contract, Carlos has agreed to waive the vesting option for 2013 and they have also negotiated a $100,000 incentive into his contract if he becomes the 2012 Comeback Player of the Year. Regardless of how much they pay him, the Marlins should hope that he isn’t a negative impact on the team and that fellow Venezuelan Ozzie Guillen can keep him focused and on the right track throughout the season.

In return the Cubs receive former first round pick Chris Volstad. The 6′-8″ righty has eaten plenty of innings for the Marlins over the past few seasons, but has always been hittable and carried high ERAs. They have control over him for another couple seasons, allowing them to take their time with some of their younger pitching prospects in the minors. A change of scenery may be good for Volstad as well, but moving from the spatious park that the Marlins used to have to Wrigley doesn’t bode well for him if he is already struggling.

This is a decent trade for both sides. The Cubbies gutted their rotation even more, though they needed to get rid of Big Z from a PR standpoint. The move helps them start fresh, even though they have to pay most of his salary for the 2012 season. They need the gutting, not just of their entire rotation, but of the entire system. The Cubs need to be rebuilt from the ground up.

As for the Marlins, I’m getting worried about TEAM make up. It will be a tall order for Ozzie this season to balance all the personalities in the clubhouse, from the explosive Zambrano, to the nonchalant and now quietly disgruntled Hanley Ramirez, to Logan Morrison, who can’t keep his mouth shut he’ll have his hands full with just three players of a 25-man roster.

The GM of the Month Award has been on hiatus for a while, but it seems appropriate to start it up again.

December is always a busy month for GMs as the annual Winter Meetings take place and numerous trades and signings go down. With the flury of activity this winter, there are plenty of candidates for the Award. One could argue for Miami Marlins GM Michael Hill with all of that rejuvinated team’s signings. You could also point out Jerry DiPoto’s work in Los Angeles since taking over the reigns this fall.

However, the GM of the Month Award will be going to Billy Beane of the Oakland Athletics. He has been tasked with the development of a team that would be able to compete in three years to coincide with a stadium that hasn’t even been approved of yet. Once again, the team must itself down and reconstruct itself for anotehr run. Considering how tough Texas and L.A. are going to be next season, it may be better to set the A’s up for contention as players on those teams start to show their age.

Also, trades carry a greater weight (good or bad) in my eyes when considering the winner of the award. Over the past month, Billy Beane has traded away pitchers Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey for 10 players. In Cahill, Beane received a potential rotation anchor in Jarrod Parker, a fringe starting outfielder (one of my favorites of this type though) in Collin Cowgill, and a decent relief prospect in Cook. With the Gonzalez trade, Beane picked up three solid pitchers including A.J. Cole who could front the A’s rotation with Parker in the future. They also receive Derek Norris, a former top catching prospect that many think (though I’m not one) will still develop into a viable hitter. Finally, Bailey brought the A’s another outfielder for the near term along with a couple lower level prospects with decent upsides.

For this masterful dealing of the month, Billy Beane wins the December 2011 GM of the Month Award.

There’s plenty of talent still out there on the free agent market. Here are 20 of the top names remaining and where TBO believes they will go. But it’s all essentially just a shot in the dark…..isn’t it? Feel free to pick some of your own, but you might have a better chance at the lotto.

HITTERS:

Catchers

Jason Varitek – Giants: Tek’s days of regular starting are virtually over, but he would be a very good instructor to a young catcher if he doesn’t retire. Though I think he’d be a great fit as a tutor in K.C. or San Diego, he may want one more shot at a title. That leaves San Francisco and Milwaukee as playoff potential teams with young catchers and limited backup options. With worries about Buster’s knee, I can see in in the bay area.

First basemen

Prince Fielder - Mariners: The Mariners need offense, badly. Jack drafted Fielder while in Milwaukee and he fits in with what the Mariners need. Second place to the Washington Nationals, they still seem interested, despite what Rizzo says to the media.

Carlos Pena - Cubs: The Cubs will likely stay away from committing too much money to a player that will likely eventually need to stay in a DH role (his defense isn’t even that great now).

Third basemen

Wilson Betemit – Rockies: Right now Jonathan Herrera is penciled in the depth chart as the starter at third base. He is more suited for a utility role, opening a spot for Betemit.

Eric Chavez – Mariners: Chavez is a tough one to pick. The Yankees would have interest again if they can’t work anything out with their Japanese import. But I can see him platooning with Alex Liddi while mentoring him and Kyle Seager on defense. It would also allow Seager to have a little more seasoning in the minors.

Outfielders

Juan Pierre - White Sox: With few options in their system and Carlos Quentin rumored to be traded, the White Sox will try to keep some stability in their outfield. Keeping Pierre around will maintain a leadoff presence as well.

Coco Crisp - Giants: The Giants have been rumored in connection with Crisp for a while.

Yoenis Cespedes – Marlins: With what they’ve bid on C.J. Wilson and Albert Pujols, it seems that they are willing to spend even more money than they already have. Scouts believe he is a best fit in right field, but the Marlins will wedge him into center where he could be passable.

Designated hitters

Johnny Damon - Athletics: Yes, a return engagement for Damon in Oakland. Johnny helps to fill the outfield void for Billy Beane, is experienced at DH, and has shown he can be a leader for a young team.

PITCHERS

Starting pitchers

Edwin Jackson - Marlins: Starting pitching is one of their main focuses this winter and they have the money to do it.

Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees: Kuroda has let it be known that he’s not really interested in playing for other teams. If he’s still in the Majors, he’s still with the Dodgers.

Roy Oswalt - Red Sox: The Sox still need to add an arm to their rotation after fixing their bullpen. With the ownership limitations on payroll, they are unlikely to go after an Edwin Jackson. With the two trades for relievers, they’ve cut out plenty of trade bait for a top starting pitcher. Oswalt may be the route to go.

Javier Vazquez – Retires.

Hisashi Iwakuma - Twins: The Twins had interest in Iwakuma last winter, their need for pitching may put them there again.

Paul Maholm - Cubs: It is sounding more and more like Matt Garza will be gone soon. Although they’ve acquired Wood, the Cubs may still be interested in an innings eater like Maholm.

Bartolo Colon - Baltimore: Colon proved last season that he still has the stuff to pitch in the AL East….at least until he wore down late in the season.

Jeff Francis - Padres: Francis may be a good fit in the spacious Petco park.

Joel Pineiro - Pirates: A return to the NL may be best for Pineiro and the Pirates are looking for experience in their rotation again.

Closers/Relievers

Ryan Madson – Angels: Madson’s choices have fallen apart on him through a very deep closer free agent and trade market.

Francisco Cordero – Reds: With little else out there, Cordero will likely return.

Billy Beane has continued his assault on the complete tear down of his roster. The team’s closer, Andrew Bailey, has been shopped around for a while and is now in the hands of the Boston Red Sox. The Sox also land outfielder Ryan Sweeney in the package that sends Josh Reddick, Miles Head, and Raul Alcantara to the Athletics.

Bailey brings the Red Sox a solid closer and pushes new acquisition Mark Melancon to a setup role, a good 1-2 punch late in the game. There is speculation that the Sox will now move Daniel Bard to the rotation, taking them out of the Matt Garza bidding. I guess Ben Cherington’s old boss is asking too much for the Cubs’ starter.

The Red Sox also obtain outfielder Ryan Sweeney in the deal. Once a top prospect, Sweeney is now more of a fourth or fifth outfielder on a good team. He should passify as replacement for Josh Reddick‘s defense in Boston.

Josh Reddick had a very nice debut in Boston last season, but I’m not too fond of his minor league statistics. His offense may struggle in the spacious ballpark in Oakland. Josh is still young though and can develop into a reliable offensive cog, but don’t look for stardom out of him. Defensively, Reddick will fit in fine for the Athletics, some scouts say he has the range for center but his arm is perfect for right field.

Miles Head is a 20-year-old first base prospect that hit .299/.372/.515 between A and High-A ball last season. He was drafted as a third baseman and some dream that he could return there with his good arm strength, but the reality of his range, or lack thereof, forces him to stay at first rather than third or a corner outfield spot. Right-handed 1B/DHs with limited range seem to be a dime a dozen, Beane has collected more than his share alone in his tenure. But he will have to excel in the upper levels to remain a viable prospect.

If he develops as hoped, pitcher Raul Alcantara could be the catch of this deal. At 6′-3″ and 180 pounds, the young hurled has some projectabilty to his body. He already throws in the low to mid 90s, but it he has been unable to sustain high velocities, something that should be resolved as he fills out. He has two mediocre off-speed offerings, but he’s also plenty young and could improve on those relatively fast. He could turn into a starter, but I see him as more of a two-pitch reliever down the road.

In addition to the prospects brought back, the Athletics will clear out nearly $5 million in salary with this deal. Bailey’s projected $3.5 million and Sweeney’s projected $1.6 million post-arbitration figures will be coming off the books, with only Reddick’s currently on the major league roster.

With concerns over Bailey’s elbow and the reliever market overflowing, Beane wasn’t going to get top dollar in return for his closer. But he did marginally improve his outfield while taking a gamble on a couple risky low-level young prospects with upside. All that while shedding some salary as well. If Bailey’s arm holds up, Boston made out really well too. They now have a very strong back end to their bullpen. I’m just not sold on Daniel Bard possibly moving into the rotation.