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Rookies to Look For: Marc Rzepczynski
It’s a good thing this is just a blog and I don’t have to pronounce today’s Rookie to Look For verbally. Toronto pitcher Marc Rzepczynski’s name is not exactly commonplace. But neither is his career ground ball rate (64.6 GB%).
Marc was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the fifth round of the 2007 draft. The lefty has been increasingly impressive as he has moved up the ladder of the Jays’ minor leagues. Armed with a low-90s devastatingly sinking fastball, a good slider, and a change up that falls off the table, Marc has emerged as a ground ball king. Although his pitches may be breaking some bats, more may be broken each season over the knee of the frustrated batters that he faces.
Marc has the stuff to be a decent #3 pitcher in the majors. Whether it is with the Jays, or some other team, that remains to be seen. The Jays are suddenly over-running with pitching with all their pitchers returning from injury. He may be one of the more enticing pieces of trade bait for the rebuilding Blue Jays.
Below is a video of Marc pitching for the Fisher Cats and a brief post-game interview with him.
I would hate to be the TV announcer that would have to cover games that had Marc pitching to Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Imaging the pitch-by-pitch call on that.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/210491-mark-rzepczynski-unpronounceable-name-great-prospect
Grady Fuson to the A’s
Grady Fuson, who made his name with the Athletics, has made it back to the A’s and Billy Beane. A guy with a calling card earlier in his scouting/player development years of drafting the Big 3 (Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder), Grady has bounced to a couple other organizations before returning home to the A’s. Now he’s reunited with Billy Beane in the desire to revamp their lackluster farm system.
Fuson originally helped Beane assemble a perennial contender with young talent such as Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Eric Chavez. He was then lured away to the Texas Rangers in an Assistant GM role. While there, the Rangers tried to develop their own Big 3 under Fuson’s direction. The DVD trio of John Danks, Edinson Volquez (in the system before Fuson was there), and Thomas Diamond were expected to be the team’s future front-line rotation. But Danks and Volquez were traded before they blossomed into stars and Diamond is struggling with his control in the minors. The team also drafted Eric Hurley, Wes Littleton, Scott Feldman and Ian Kinsler during his tenure there.
But after a falling out in Texas, Fuson moved on to San Diego and was reunited with Sandy Alderson, who was with the Athletics when Fuson was in Oakland. At the time, the Padres were was ranked 27th by Baseball America’s organizational talent rankings. While in San Diego, Fuson has nabbed Chase Headley, Nick Hundley, Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, and prospects Donavan Tate and Simon Castro. Although the farm system isn’t a whole lot better, it’s mainly because needs at the major league level have pushed many of their prospects to the majors. Sometimes too early.
With Jed Hoyer taking over the GM position in San Diego, Fuson was on his way out. Now he’s reunited with the GM he made a name for himself with. But he’s also with the GM that, as Fox Sports’ Tracy Ringolsby points out, belittled his efforts in the now famous Moneyball book. You have to wonder if everything is patched between the two or not, but you also have to believe that other teams with ugly farm systems had to be chasing him and he still went back to Beane and the Athletics. Hopefully Fuson will work well with Beane and Eric Kubota, the Director of Scouting, to return the A’s farm system to the splendor it was during the team’s seemingly regular pennant runs when the Big 3 were around.
Fall out of the Felipe Lopez Signing
The St. Louis Cardinals recently brought back infielder Felipe Lopez on a one year contract. But his contract has more ramifications than your typical backup infielder.
After a drop in offensive production while with the Washington Nationals, Lopez was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals in the summer of 2008. He responded under Tony LaRussa and produced a .385/.426/.528 line after the trade. That performance landed him a $3.5 contract from the Arizona Diamondbacks last off-season. He hit well for the Diamondbacks and was traded last summer to the Milwaukee Brewers, who needed to plug a hole with Rickie Weeks out for the season. Now the Cardinals are welcoming the 29-year-old back into the the fold.
According to reports, Lopez will become the backbone of the backup infielders for the Cardinals with Julio Lugo. Both players were recently starters and have both played well in a St. Louis uniform. But there are more ramifications because of this signing. Julio Lugo is obviously upset that he’ll get less playing time because of Lopez’ signing. Although Lopez will likely get most of the starts at shortstop while Brendan Ryan is nursing his wrist back to health, once Brendan is back Lopez will be regulated to sharing time with Lopez at second, short, and third.
The signing may mean marginally less time at second base for Skip Schumaker. This would allow LaRussa to rest the oft-injured Ryan Ludwick and give the young Colby Rasmus time off if he struggles. It can be expected that both outfielders will receive a few less at-bats from this signing. But it won’t be much less, unless either player succumbs to a major injury or decides that they can’t hit.
With the experience and skill level of Lugo and Lopez on the bench, the Cardinals have really good depth as they push their way into the conversation of NL Central favorites once again. But it’ll be interesting to see who on the team will have their ego hurt at some point during the season….and how it affects the team.
Justin Upton Locked Up
Justin Upton has been locked up. Not in jail, but to a six-year deal for $51.25 million. It is a very team-friendly deal for the Arizona Diamondbacks as Upton, who hit .300/.366/.532 last season as a 22-year-old, should be worth much more than the contract value if he isn’t besieged by injuries.
FanGraphs calculated his value last season to be worth $20.4 million. If Upton played as well as he did last season over the length of the contract, he will surpass the contract value in approximately 2-1/2 years. Over the six-year span, the Diamondbacks will have received $122.4 million in value for his services. You also have to take into account that Upton started slowly last season and is still only 22, bigger numbers are likely to come from him in the near future.
Joe Pawlikowski, over at FanGraphs, wrote an article in mid-February that expected a five-year, $58 million deal to come out of the long term deal talks. The one that Upton is signing is obviously much more team-friendly. Joe also notes how old Upton will be when he hits free agency. Based on a six-year deal, Upton will be 29-years-old when he hits free agency, in-line for a massive contract.
Although there is a slight amount of worry that he’ll flounder like his older brother BJ in Tampa, scouts have always been higher on his potential than his brother’s. This looks like a very good contract for Josh Byrnes.
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Rookies to Look For: Brian Matusz
The Baltimore Orioles have done well to rebuild their farm system over the past few years. Through trades and good drafts, there are a few quality prospects that are nearly ready in the minors to go with the budding stars in the majors (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones). Lefty Brian Matusz is another star that is on the verge of playing regularly in the majors.
Matusz, 23, was taken by Baltimore in the first round of the 2008 draft. The Orioles put Brian in High-A ball to start his first full professional season in 2009. He didn’t fail to impress. In 11 starts, Brian pitched to a 4-2 record with a 2.19 ERA. He gave up only 56 hits in 66.2 innings while striking out 75.
Even with a mediocre walk rate, the aggressive Orioles pushed Brian up to Double-A, where he proceeded to get even better. In eight starts, Brian posted a 7-0 record with a 1.55 ERA. He also posted 46 strikeouts in 46.1 innings, while maintaining an impeccable 0.91 WHIP.
With Matusz’ dominance in the minors, the Orioles took it one step further and brought him up for eight more starts as the season wore down. The jump from Double-A to the Majors was a tougher one for him though. Although he had a 5-2 record on a team that was near the back of the pack in the AL, his 52 hits given up in 44.2 innings showed that he wasn’t a flawless phenom. But the jump from Double-A to the Majors can be a big one to overcome for some.
Here’s a YouTube video of Matusz pitching in the majors from different camera angles.
Matusz throws four good pitches; an 88-94mph fastball, a plus curve ball, a slider and a change-up. With some typical adjustments to pitching in the Majors, Matusz ceiling is pretty high. The lefty could end up the team’s ace by the end of the season.
Ed Wade’s Reign of Rediculousness Extended
Honestly, I laughed when I read the news that Houston Astros GM Ed Wade had his contract extended through 2012. This was not a slight against the suffering Astros fans who have watched their team decay under Wade’s reign, it was pure bewilderment over how the team’s ownership could continue to support Wade.
His supporters will point out that he obtained Michael Bourn in a trade for Brad Lidge. But Bourn has had only one good season so far, let’s see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him (Lidge has a ring now by the way). They also point to the signing of LaTroy Hawkins and a mid-season trade for Randy Wolf (the Astros were 10 games back in the NL Central at that point….by the way).
But that’s only part of the picture.
ESPN’s Jason Stark recently polled “20 baseball wisemen” on numerous questions. Guess who’s free agent signing ranked as the worst of the off-season? Yes, Ed Wade’s 3-year, $15-million contract to Brandon Lyon ranked atop the worst. There’s also been these signings in the past year alone:
Kaz Matsui – .302 OBP
Mike Hampton – 5.30 ERA
Darrin Erstad - .194 AVG,
Ivan Rodriguez - .280 OBP, and
Brian Moehler - 5.47 ERA
That’s $13,050,000 in wasted salary last season.
Then there’s Baseball America’s annual organizational rankings…the Astros have been last the past two years. Admittedly, most of that has been due to the scouting of the prior administration, but Ed’s staff hasn’t even moved them up from last in the past two years?
At least he gives me something to write about whenever he pulls off a transaction, but I’ll eventually go bald with all the head-scratching.
Over a Beer and Peanuts: The Friarhood
‘Over a Beer and Peanuts’ is a section on The Baseball Opinion where I have a frank question and answer session with a fellow blogger to get their opinion on issues related to the area of baseball that they cover. Steve Adler, over at The Friarhood, has accepted our most recent installment of this posting. His well designed (and written) blog goes into depth on numerous issues related to the San Diego Padres.
1. What are your thoughts on outfielder Kyle Blanks?
This guy is a monster! The issues with Blanks are, if will able to hit anything other than a fast ball and if manager Bud Black will put him in a position in the line up to see fastballs. If Black hits Blanks in front of Adrian Gonzalez, you can bet that Blanks will see plenty of fast balls, if Blanks is buried (protected) in the six or seven spot if could be a rough year for the youngster.
2. How about prospect Matt Latos?
Latos is an ace waiting to happen, but not yet. It sounds more and more like the Latos is going to have to blow everyone else out of the water to earn the #5 spot. I think that the Padres start Mat in AAA because of factors outside of his ability.
3. In limited time at the hot corner last season, Chase Headley posted a nice 4.4 UZR. With Chase likely heading back to his natural position at the hot corner full time next season, do you see him settling in and taking off offensively? This is a make or break year for Headley. The Padres have a lot of organizational depth at 3B, and it’s time to see if Headley can be the savior as he was advertised to fans. I do think that Headleywill hit better this season, but he won’t remind anyone of Ken Caminitti at the plate. Expect Kouzmanoff type numbers with a slightly higher average and OBP.
4. How do you see the starting rotation filling out?
Jon Garland
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Clayton Richard
Gallagher or Stauffer (both are out of options)
5. This past year has been tough for Padre faithful. The Padres have decided not to bring back Trevor Hoffman, to trade Jake Peavy, and to replace storied GM Kevin Towers. How do you like new GM Jed Hoyer and his moves so far?
It has been rough on Padres fans, any time you send away players that the fans identify with it hurts. With that said, I think the “Jedi” is doing a great job. The only move that I question is the Yorvit Torrealba move, I would have preferred he went after a better defensive option such as a Rod Barajas. I think I’m nit picking about a back up catcher, otherwise I think Hoyer has done an outstanding job.
6. We can’t have a discussion about the Padres without bringing up Adrian Gonzalez. Do you see him signed long-term or traded? If you see him traded, what team do you believe matches up best with the Padres on such a blockbuster?
This is a question that only Adrian himself can answer. If he is willing to take less than $15M a year, then I do believe something could be worked out, but that’s not what non Padres fans want to hear. How the Padres play will determine if/when AGON is moved, if this team keeps it interesting, which could happen, Adrian will stay the entire season. If not, then he will be moved the team willing to give up the farm, literally! We hear all the chatter from Red Sox fans about how they feel they are entitled to AGON, but sign-ability will not be an issue when the trade happens, I also feel that minor league players from large markets tend to be over hyped. I see the Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners as the strongest candidates at this point. The Padres will be looking for high end arms and major league ready every day players, specifically at Catcher, Shortstop and Center Field.
Thanks to Steve for taking the time to answer some Padres questions today.
Tiger Fans Beware!
Beware Tigers fans! The Johnny Damon that you have recently signed will not put up the offensive numbers that you saw from him in 2009. This, combined with his decaying defensive abilities may make this contract look ugly, even though it’s for a relatively decent $8 million.
Johnny Damon hit a very nice .282/.365/.489 for the Yankees last season, smashing 24 home runs and stealing 12 bases in the process. Typically, a player that hit that well would command an 8-figure, multi-year salary in free agency. But not Johnny Damon, only four teams were interested in Damon when it came down to it, and none of them were interested in him for more than one gauranteed year.
Why? Let’s take a look at his home-away stats. These stats have already been pointed out by some of his detractors:
Home: .279/.382/.533, 17 home runs
Away: .284/.349/.446, 7 home runs
Typically, a player tends to hit better at home than away, but not significantly. In Damon’s case, the launching pad that is the new Yankees Stadium helped him immensely. His OBP was 33 points higher there, his slugging percentage was 87 points higher as well. If you are to double his away line, you’d get the production of a borderline starting outfielder for most teams, not a game-changer.
But let’s look at it another way. Let’s check his stats after the All-Star break.
Before: .276/.362/.510, 16 home runs
After: .290/.369/.462, 8 home runs
Although he hit better, his power took a major drop. There are some that will provide the rebuttal that Damon’s speed is more his game than his power. But Damon stole only 12 bases last season and only four of those were in the second half.
This is just fair warning, don’t expect a .282/.365/.489 line with 24 home runs and 12 stolen bases next season.
USA Today’s List of Names You Need to Know
Each year USA Today puts out a list of the 100 Names You Need to Know, a list of the prospects you should know of going into the upcoming season. It’s not a top-100 list, as many prospects in the top-100 will not be ready during the upcoming season. As I see it, the list is more of a “what rookies will have the most impact” in the upcoming season.
It’s an interesting list that gives you a little background on each of the prospects and when they might start making an impact at the Major League level. But I do have my own opinion on some of the rankings:
Pedro Alvarez(7): Though a great prospect, he still has some work left he needs to do in the minors. Andy LaRoche also took a good step forward (finally) in the second half last season as well. I could see Neal Huntington letting the market develop and see if he can get much for LaRoche (unless he plans on moving him to second, as rumored) before bringing up Alvarez.
Jon Niese(12): Niese is over-ranked in this list. His positive impact on the Mets will be significantly less than some of the others lower on this list. Many media outlets are high on him, but I have my doubts.
Brett Wallace (27): I really think that Brett’s going to force his way into the Jays’ lineup at some point early in the season. He could have a bigger impact than Daniel Hudson or Jeff Clement.
Stephen Stasburg (31): Stephen is underrated at 31. Although the Nationals will have him settle in during a short period in the minors, they’ll likely be itching to bring him up mid-season. He’s good enough to make the jump and possibly pitch as well as Tommy Hanson did last season for the Braves.
Desmond Jennings (59): He’s a little underrated here. If Jennings performs well enough and B.J. Upton continues his sluggish hitting of 2009, the Rays could hook Upton at mid-season.
David Freese(60): Barring a significant change (Like a Felipe Lopez signing), Freese will likely get the majority of the playing time at third base. He could have a bigger impact on the Cardinals’ overall offense than some of the players above him on this list.
These are just the more notable arguements about the rankings in this list. But there’s players that USA Today left off this list that I haven’t mentioned. Who’s been left off that deserves to be on this list more than Allen Craig (100)?
