There’s numerous ways to get your regular fix from The Baseball Opinion.

How to follow us:

• Add our RSS feed.
• Bookmark the mobile version of TBO on your phone.
• Add us on Twitter.
• Become a fan on Facebook.

How to utilize the site:

• Learn more about TBO in our About page.
• Contact us to send in a link, question, or other request. 
• Submit a well thought out article to possibly get your opinion published.
• Check out Over a Beer and Peanuts to read interviews and discussions with other baseball blogs.
• Read through reviews of prior trades, drafts, and other historical events that made some GMs cry Over Spilled Milk.
• Browse through profiles of prospects in Rookies to Look For.
• Check out TBO’s opinion on recent trades and who could be traded in Trade Bait.

Outside Links:

• Cot’s Baseball Contracts - a great reference for contracts information.
• FanGraphs – goes beyond just the basic stats.
• MLB Trade Rumors- Everyone’s favorite site for rumors floating around baseball (it’s an addiction)

Still scratching my head on the Prince Fielder signing, I decided to peruse through old posts to take my mind off of it. But what caught my eye was a post about another major left-handed first base bat that changed uniforms over six years ago. In late November 2005, the New York Mets, then under control of GM Omar Minaya, traded for Carlos Delgado to add more thump to their lineup.

This story also relates to this year as the deal dealt with the then named Florida Marlins, who were trying to clear payroll through a fire sale. Something completely opposite of this winter’s antics and possibly something we’ll see again in a couple years.

At the time I stated:

“Minaya got the power bopper that he wanted, Delgado reached 30 homers for the ninth consecutive season this past year and is an RBI machine.  Carlos also gives protection in the batting order to another Carlos….Beltran, last  year’s big signing.  Delgado’s bat is feared more than Cliff Floyd’s and the protection should improve Carlos Beltran’s statistics.

By grabbing Delgado and signing Billy Wagner Omar Minaya not only added a significant amount of payroll, but placed the Mets into serious contention to take the NL East division from the Braves for the first time in 14 years….” 

My last statement was correct as the Mets ended the following season with 97 wins, running away with the NL East crown. Delgado was a 3.0 win player, as figured by WAR, in 2006. Although he would come close to replicating that performance in 2008, he didn’t hit as well in 2007 and was injured for much of 2009. Overall, Delgado amassed a 7.2 WAR for his four seasons in a Mets uniform.

In return for Carlos, the Mets sent pitcher Yusmeiro Petit, first baseman Mike Jacobs, and third-baseman Grant Psomas to the Marlins.

At the time, Petit was the prize of the deal for the Marlins. He was the Mets’ top pitching prospect at the time. But the Mets’ farm system wasn’t exactly in its prime at the time and Petit was only projected to be a mid-rotation starter at best. He didn’t even turn into that though. After a mediocre 2006 season in the minors, Petit came up and pitched in 26.1 innings of ugly (9.57 ERA) relief late that season.

Then, on March 26, 2007 he was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Jorge Julio. He would spend parts of the next three seasons bouncing between the minors and majors and from starting to relief. He never posted an ERA below 4.00 during his stretches in the majors. In 2010 he was claimed off waivers by the Mariners, but hasn’t pitched in the bigs since.

As for Jacobs, most of his worth was wrapped up in his bat. Mike nabbed a 0.8 WAR for the 2006 season, but that was brought down by poor fielding statistics. He knocked in 20 home runs and 77 RBIs that season. His best season in a Marlins uniform could be considered by many his Carlos Pena-like 2008 season that showed him hitting .247/.299/.514 with 32 home runs and 93 RBIs, but his defense was putrid that season with a -16.4 UZR.

After that season Jacobs was traded to the Kansas City Royals for reliever Leo Nunez. Mike’s poor contact numbers would finally catch up with him in 2009 when he hit only .228 on the season. He would go on to bounce around to the Mets, Blue Jays, Mets (again), and ending up with the Rockies last season. He has tested positive for HGH and will be serving a suspension in relation to that violation, but the Arizona Diamondbacks have signed him to a minor league deal anyway.

Nunez would have some up and down seasons for the Marlins, but he has closed out 92 games for the Marlins in his four seasons there….in addition to getting a name change.

When acquired, Psomas had just put up a promising .301/.339/.517 season with 37 doubles and 20 home runs for two “A” levels in the Mets farm system. He would go on to have a decent season at High-A the next year, but it all fell apart when he saw advanced pitching at Double-A and higher. His strikeout rates shot up above 30% and his hitting overall fell apart. He was eventually released and signed on with an independent league team for the 2009 season, but hasn’t played professionally since.

Just by WAR alone, this deal was an upset by the Mets:

Mets:

6.9  Carlos Delgado

Marlins:

-0.9 Yusmeiro Petit
0.0  Mike Jacobs   
0.0  Grant Psomas
2.1  “Leo Nunez” – Juan Oviedo
-1.1  Jorge Julio 

That’s a net 0.1 WAR ladies and gentlemen. I’m not a big fan of defensive metrics and their impact on the overall WAR of a player, but regardless the Mets came out on the plus side of this deal.  Most of the Marlins’ worth came at the fleecing of Leo Nunez (or whoever he is) from the Royals for Jacobs, a mostly separate transaction.

Regardless of the prospects the Marlins received in return, the move was a salary dump through and through. It’s tough to judge who got the better end of things when that aspect is thrown into the mix. But Delgado was a still a good hitter when he was traded and should have nabbed more in the initial trade than what the Marlins received.

Recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Yankees hope to address their need for a DH through trying to deal A.J. Burnett for salary relief or a “DH type”. With the Yankees’ recent additions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda, the team has three pitchers vying for the 5th spot in the rotation and another couple starting pitcher prospects nearly knocking on the door. There seems to be enough of a surplus to deal from, but the question remains, “Who would take A.J. off the Yankees’ hands?”.

Burnett is in the midst of a 5-year contract worth $82.5 million. Right now there are two remaining years (’12-’13) at $16.5 million each. But Yankees fans want him gone yesterday. Although A.J.’s first season in New York resulted in a 13-9 record with a 4.04 ERA, his last two seasons have been pretty ugly compared to his career statistics. 

But a case can be made for a team like the Padres, Pirates, Athletics or Mariners to take on A.J. and a portion of his remaining contract. Burnett’s Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP) has been roughly 0.40 lower than his ERA the past couple seasons. Also his HR/9 has increased since joining the Yankees with a 1.1 in 2009, a 1.2 in 2010, and a 1.5 in 2011. Moving out of Yankee Stadium and into a more pitcher-friendly ballpark should help to shift those averages down towards his career average of 0.9 (which has been increased by the past three seasons). Getting out of the spotlight of an overly critical media that resides in New York wouldn’t hurt either.

Sure, GM Brian Cashman and the Yankees will have to eat a large portion of the contract to get a deal done, but a bargain hunting GM may get a decent #3 pitcher for a scrap heap back of the rotation starter’s price. It’s certainly something to look into, it just depends how bad the Yankees want him off the roster.

The Detroit Tigers have sent shudders throughout the baseball world. With the signing of Prince Fielder to a 9-year, $214 million contract, Fielder is set to become the Tigers next first baseman.

Of course, becoming the team’s next first baseman is the head-scratcher. The team already happens to have a hitter by the name of Miguel Cabrera that just happened to come in 5th in the AL MVP race in 2011 (and that was with many Detroit-centric votes that would go towards him shifted the to actual winner, Justin Verlander). Sure, Cabrera’s only had one positive UZR at first in four seasons, but Fielder’s no Kieth Hernandez. According to FanGraphs, he’s actually been worse at first over the past four seasons than Cabrera.

But let’s not forget Victor Martinez, at least we haven’t, but Tigers management apparently has. With Martinez returning next season, the Tigers will have three DH types and only one DH spot to fill. Even before Alex Avila‘s emergence, Martinez was already destined to spend more time at DH and first base than behind the plate. Now what?

• Trade Cabrera, his contract, and his past personal issues after the season….who needs leverage in trade talks?
• Move Cabrera to 3B (and put on a blindfold), where he hasn’t played an inning since 2008?
• Move him to left field (and double-up the blindfold), where he hasn’t played since 2005?
• Sign David Ortiz next winter to have four of a kind. It’s at least a good poker hand….

…and let’s not even get started on the length of Fielder’s contract. I already addressed the issue of a lengthy contract for Fielder in a previous post about him. The last two to four seasons are not likely to be pretty.

But hey, it’s the owners that want to be nostalgic and bring Cecil’s son to the Motor City, it’s just Dave Dombroski’s job to make the rest of the roster fit. Good luck Dave!

MLB.com has recently started rolling out it’s list of the top 10 players from each position. They started with starting pitching, to which I had little desire to rebuke. But once it got to the top 10 first basemen, that’s when I thought it was time to put in my two cents.

Here’s my list:

1. Anthony Rizzo
2. Yonder Alonso
3. Jonathan Singleton
4. Matt Adams
5. C.J. Cron
6. Clint Robinson
7. Neftali Soto
8. Chris Carter
9.  Joe Terdoslavich
10. Alex Dickerson
11. Daniel Vogelbach

Although I agree with the site’s top three picks, there’s  some discussion about those further down the line. Adams switches places with Cron in this lineup. He’s proven himself against more advanced pitching and has established a proven track record of hitting everywhere he goes. Cron may have a much higher ceiling, but he also has to prove himself out of the the Pioneer League, which should have been a walk in the park for him at 21.

Possibly one of the biggest surprises is that Chris Parmelee is completely off this list. Chris put up better numbers in 2011, but he was also repeating Double-A. Also, although he has a good walk rate, I highly doubt he will hit for average in the majors and he doesn’t hit for much power.

His replacement at #6 may be just as surprising. Clint Robinson doesn’t get enough credit in my eyes. Sure, he’s 26 and doesn’t field well, but a team willing to put up with his defense or has an open DH spot should take a long look at him.

Like Parmelee I doubt Soto’s ability to hit for an average or to take a walk, but there’s no doubting his power. Regardless of the thunder in his stick, I am tempted to move him down near the basement of this list. I just don’t think he’ll hit major league pitching. That could also be said for Carter who hasn’t proven himself in the majors yet, but I still believe that he has the ability to hit well enough to be valuable to a team….especially if he settles in to a single defensive position.

The next two I somewhat liken to each other. Terdoslavich is one year further along than Dickerson at this point and we’ve seen the results out of the switch hitter so far. Although Dickerson disappointed some with his lack of power, check out Joe’s power numbers from his age 21 season. Alex could easily move past Joe this year.

I couldn’t just round out the list at 10 though, Vogelbach intrigued me. He put up some very nice numbers in a limited scope in 2011. Dan could certainly move up past Soto’s spot in this list by the end of the 2012 season. But the numbers are too limited right now to move him higher.

It’s rare that a Yankees’ starting pitching prospect hangs around long enough to reach professional maturity for the major league club. Most of their starting pitching prospects are traded for an established impact starter. But lately the Yankees have been a little more patient with their pitching prospects, somewhat out of mid-season injury/inconsistency necessity, but also, they have some talent to try out. Ivan Nova established himself in the Yankees rotation last season. Phil Hughes has had the talent to become a regular member of the starting staff, he just hasn’t put it all together for a full season yet. Then there’s the top two pitching prospects in their minor league system, Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos.

The latter of the two is a lefty that is knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. He flaunts three good pitches; a 91-95mph fastball, a very good change with sinking, screwball-like action when on, and a nice curve.

Yet, for all the talent, Banuelos has some issues with his command. Some say that he could still develop into a Gio Gonzalez-type who thrives despite his control issues. MLB.com even ranks him as the second best lefty starting prospect in the game. I’m not as high on Banuelos. Though I agree that he is one of the top left-handed starting pitching prospects in the game, I’m not sold on his long-term projection. He seems to be a future #3 starter, or #4 on a team like the Yankees. He’ll likely have a few peak seasons that will put his value higher, but the lack of control is an issue that cannot be overlooked. Just as I think Gio Gonzalez due for a reality check, Manny will have issues with patient lineups.

As for the 2012 season, the Yankees’ mid-January moves have set back Manny’s chances at a regular rotation spot for the season. The recent acquisitions of Michael Pineda and Hiroki Kuroda have shifted two of Freddy Garcia, A.J. Burnett, and Phil Hughes to the bullpen. They will likely lean whoever is moved to the pen for spot starts and long-term injury replacements during the season. This will give Banuelos the entire season to hone his craft on a regular basis in Triple-A, allowing him to work on improvements to his control before possibly getting a chance next season. Kuroda and Garcia will be free agents at the end of the season and taking on a portion Burnett’s contract may be more palatable to another team with only the 2013 season remaining. It’s highly possible that Manny toes the rubber on a regular basis in the Bronx in 2013.

The recent MLB Winter Meetings, combined with the trade that sent Carlos Quentin to the Padres reminded me of the last time that Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes hooked up in a Quentin trade, the 2007 Winter Meetings. Only one “major” trade took place during the meetings, but the four other trades had impacts of their own down the road.

1. Tigers Trade for Miguel Cabrera

Tigers Received:
3B Miguel Cabrera
LHP Dontrelle Willis

Marlins Received:
OF Cameron Maybin
LHP Andrew Miller
C Mike Rabelo
RHP Eulogio De La Cruz
RHP Burke Badenhop
RHP Dallas Trahern

This was obviously the deal of the Winter Meetings. Cabrera has been an offensive powerhouse for the Tigers and has been mentioned in the AL MVP vote about every season he’s been there. Willis is another story, he fell apart after moving to Detroit and was never the dominant pitcher he once was. Regardless, Dombrowski extended him and paid dearly for it. He found limited success last season, but not with the Tigers.

Maybin struggled in Florida, but a change of scenery in San Diego has helped. The Marlins received to relievers on their end for him. Andrew Miller was ineffective and has since been traded to Boston. Rabelo spent some time as a backup catcher for the Marlins, but never hit enough to hold the position long enough.

Cruz was bounced around in a number of roles and found him self on the Padres and the Brewers after the trade. He did have some success this season in Milwaukee’s pen, though it was a Bey limited sample. Badenhop has been the most useful of the three eighties in this deal, pitching over 50 innings out of the pen the past couple seasons before being traded to the Rays this winter. Trahern never hit his stride and therefore never reached the majors.

This trade was an obvious win for the Tigers, even with Willie’s ineffectiveness and contract as well as Cabrera’s off field issues.
2. White Sox pick up Hard Hittin’ Carlos Quentin

White Sox Received:
OF Carlos Quentin

Diamondbacks Received:
1B Chris Carter

Since Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes teamed up to trade Carlos Quentin again this winter, reviewing this trade seems appropriate. From a player to player comparison, Kenny Williams obviously won this trade for the White Sox as Quentin has been a productive middle of the order bat for the team since he was traded for. His defense on the other hand….

Carter was D-Back property for 11 days as he was flipped to Oakland as part of a trade for Dan Haren. Although Byrnes didn’t win by value for value, he used Carter’s value at the time as a piece to land Haren, Carter’s value has since dropped. Chris has since had some decent seasons in the minors, but hasn’t excelled in the majors. He will have to push past a potential “Four-A” hitter label this season if he wishes to have a Major League career.

3. Nationals obtain Clippard

Yankees Received:
RP Jonathan Albaladejo

Nationals Received:
SP Tyler Clippard

The Yankees were looking for a pitcher to fill a middle relief role. Albaladejo was a hard thrower that performed well in an audition with the Nationals in 2007, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. But the walks hit him hard in New York and he never posted a WHIP below 1.50 in parts of three seasons with the Yankees. Clippard on the other hand would eventually move into a role that the Yankees would’ve loved for Albaladejo to develop into. He has become the setup man for the back-end of the bullpen and has even closed a few games. Tyler has excelled in relief and had his best season yet in 2011 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.838 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 and an All Star Game appearance.

4. Braves Snatch Infante

Braves Recieved:
IF Omar Infante
LHP Will Ohman

Cubs Recieved:
RHP Jose Ascanio

The Braves filled their short-term needs with this deal. Ohman was a vaible lefty out of the pen in 2008 and saw a career high in innings pitched, along with career lows in BB/9 and HR/9. He left via free agency after the season. Infante had three very good seasons as a utility infielder in Atlanta, including an All Star selection in 2010. He was then used in the Dan Uggla deal after that season.

Ascaino’s 2007 season at Double-A proved to be an abberation and he wasn’t successful  in various trips to the Majors with the Cubs and then the Pirates.

5. Nationals pick up Hazardous Dukes

This was a tough one to decide on as the rest of the trades didn’t really help any team much. The Freddy Guzman for Chris Shelton trade was intriguing as I was always interested in Guzman and his speed (90 SB in the minors in 2003). But both players became “Four-A” players during their peak. The Tigers traded Jose Capellan to the Rockies for Denny Bautista. Everyone drooled over Bautista’s strikeouts during his career, but his walks were loathsome. Although he pitched to a 3.32 ERA in Detroit, his 1.526 WHIP didn’t make him a keeper. Finally, it was settled that the Elijah Dukes to the Nationals trade had the biggest impact, in more ways than one.

Nationals Received:
OF Elijah Dukes

Rays Received:
LHP Glenn Gibson

Dukes was known for his hot head as much as his potential talent. The Nationals gave him his best chance in the Majors and he hit a respectable .256/.359/.430 in two seasons, including an .864 OPS in 2008. He didn’t hit that well in his second season there and spent plenty of time in the minors. Dukes hasn’t been back to the Majors since.

Gibson fell apart after moving to the Rays. He displayed a very nice 1.069 WHIP in Low-A for Nationals system before being shipped out, but a 1.894 for the Rays the next year. He never returned to the success he had in 2007.

Each month TBO provides the Kila Ka’aihue Award to one ball player who’s path to the majors has been blocked by an existing player in his position, or just by the sheer…..general discretion of the front office staff. Sure, the player may never result in a regular in the majors, but they should at least get their chance somewhere.

Starting pitching is a relatively tough area to award a Kila Ka’aihue Award to. If you pitch well enough, you are more than likely good enough to replace the major league team’s fifth starter, become an injury replacement, or will fit into the bullpen. Pitching is always needed and a decent starting pitcher is rarely blocked. But perusing through the PCL statistics I found one starter that should get an extended chance in the majors, Brandon Dickson of the Memphis Cardinals.

Amongst qualifying starting pitchers in the PCL, ”Cotton” was third in the league in WHIP (1.28) and 5th overall in ERA (3.95). Although those stats are decent, but not mind-boggling good, they have to be taken in context, the PCL is a hitter-friendly league.

FutureRedbirds.net has a very good write-up on Dickson from 2010 and he seems to have improved since then. With a low-90s sinking fastball, a curve, and an “improving changeup”, Dickson has a three pitch mix that has gotten him to Triple-A and a cup-of-coffee in St. Louis. His strikeout rate has increased each season since 2008 and his walk rate has each season since then as well.

In a recent post on Minor League Ball, John Sickels provided a preliminary ranking of the Cardinals prospects for 2012. Dickson came in 18th on the list. Sickels noted:

18) Brandon Dickson, RHP, Grade C+: You probably won’t see him this high on other lists, as an older prospect without first-class stuff. But he throws strikes, and could surprise us with a surprising run of success if given a little luck and defensive support. There are many guys with higher upside in the system that you could list here instead, but I wanted to draw notice to Dickson.

All that said, would Dickson survive as a 5th starter? It’s possible, on a poor team, but more likely he would fit in a big league team as a relief pitcher. With a move to the pen it is possible that Brandon could add a couple mph to his fastball. When combined with his already very good ground ball tendencies, Dickson may be a decent middle-relief arm in the pen down the road. He just needs an extended chance.

Anyone getting the feeling that the major league front offices are starting to become one big fraternity? Theo Epstien’s regime, that came from Boston, just traded with a GM in San Diego (Josh Byrnes) who used to be an assistant under Theo as well as the current Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, for a player who was originally drafted by Boston.

Recently, the Cubs traded young pitcher right-hander Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na to the San Diego Padres for first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right-hander Zach Cates.

Rizzo, of course, is the centerpiece of this deal as he was a notable portion of the Adrian Gonzalez trade from the Padres to the Red Sox last winter and he has recently been displaced by the Mat Latos deal that brought Yonder Alonzo to play first base in San Diego. Though I’m not convinced he’s going to hit for a good average, he should be a good middle of the order hitter for the Cubs down the road.

Cates didn’t make Baseball America‘s top 10 list for the Padres for 2012, nor did he make the top 25 on Minor League Ball‘s preliminary list, though he was mentioned under “others”. But he ranked 16th on Minor League Ball’s prospect list for the Cubs (posted after the trade), stating that he has a live arm and could be a breakout candidate. He has a good fastball with a plus change, but he’s still working on his curveball.

Cashner is a power arm that could be an could be a candidate for the rotation, but that is doubtful anymore with his injury history. It is more likely that Cashner settles in towards the back of the bullpen for San Diego. But it is not all bad, he has the stuff that he could eventually be pretty good out of a setup role and possibly close out games.

Na is an outfielder with virtually no power and was caught in 1/3 of his stolen base attempts. On the good side, he’s only 19, very young for a player at Double-A and he produces a good walk rate. Regardless, he seems to be a forth or more likely fifth outfielder at this point. There’s an outside chance that he learns to steal bases efficiently and hits for a higher average as he matures, but I’d rather bet on Cates’s chance at success.

Anyone can tell you that if you can trade a reliever for a position player, do it. That adage is true with even this trade. If I had a belief that Cashner could stay healthy in a starting role, this trade would be much closer, but Andrew hasn’t sold me on that in his short career. The most interesting part of this trade though is that the Cubs intend to give first base to Bryan LaHair after his tremendous season at Triple-A last year, giving Rizzo a little more seasoning in the minors. Maybe they’re hopeful that LaHair will be able to produce well enough to draw some trade interest at some point during the season before they bring Rizzo up.

Once again, the Miami Marlins are making a big splash in an effort to improve their team for 2012. They are hoping to catch lightening in a bottle by trading for the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano. It is an interesting move considering “Big Z’s” explosive personality and the fact that he hasn’t pitched as dominantly has he has in the past.

The Miami Marlins will only have to pay Zambrano $2.5 million of the $18 million he is owed. There’s also been a restructuring of his contract, Carlos has agreed to waive the vesting option for 2013 and they have also negotiated a $100,000 incentive into his contract if he becomes the 2012 Comeback Player of the Year. Regardless of how much they pay him, the Marlins should hope that he isn’t a negative impact on the team and that fellow Venezuelan Ozzie Guillen can keep him focused and on the right track throughout the season.

In return the Cubs receive former first round pick Chris Volstad. The 6′-8″ righty has eaten plenty of innings for the Marlins over the past few seasons, but has always been hittable and carried high ERAs. They have control over him for another couple seasons, allowing them to take their time with some of their younger pitching prospects in the minors. A change of scenery may be good for Volstad as well, but moving from the spatious park that the Marlins used to have to Wrigley doesn’t bode well for him if he is already struggling.

This is a decent trade for both sides. The Cubbies gutted their rotation even more, though they needed to get rid of Big Z from a PR standpoint. The move helps them start fresh, even though they have to pay most of his salary for the 2012 season. They need the gutting, not just of their entire rotation, but of the entire system. The Cubs need to be rebuilt from the ground up.

As for the Marlins, I’m getting worried about TEAM make up. It will be a tall order for Ozzie this season to balance all the personalities in the clubhouse, from the explosive Zambrano, to the nonchalant and now quietly disgruntled Hanley Ramirez, to Logan Morrison, who can’t keep his mouth shut he’ll have his hands full with just three players of a 25-man roster.