The Baseball Opinion

Royals Need New Blood

Chris — Tue, 08 May 2012 13:00:10 +0000

Those poor Kansas City Royals. The subject of numerous jokes over the past couple decades, the Royals have mired in the basement of the American League standings with limitations on payroll and mediocre player development hampering team building. But lately things have been looking up for the Royals. After the 2010 season, their farm system was regarded as the best in baseball and now some of those players are playing in the Majors. Yet with the notoriety also comes expectations, many of them unwarranted. Most of their young potential star player don't even have a full year of service time in the majors and most of the pitching talent is still in the minors. Regardless, people start seeing the names on the backs of the uniforms and want immediate results. During their recent and admittedly lengthy losing streak Sam Mellinger of Kansas City.com crafted a diatribe on the state of the Royals. One of the most profound statements in his post read: "Building the Greatest Farm System In The History of Upright Man is apparently no cure for historic stink, and the Royals deserve every bit of venom you can muster for a franchise that’s been a ubiquitous letdown for most of the last two decades." Ouch. Is this one of those, "It's gonna hurt you more than it hurts me," types of drubbings? His hand had to have hurt after slapping the Royals with that rant. But if you analyze the numbers a little further, there's more to their failures than just the fact they've played badly. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently did a little statistical analysis of the Royals recently and it seems that the team performs well....except under pressure. To quote Cameron: "With the bases empty, the Royals have posted a .333 wOBA, fourth best in the American League. With men on base, that’s fallen to .298 – third worst in the league. With runners in scoring position? .275, ahead of only the Oakland Athletics." As goes the pitching, here are the BABIP splits as Cameron deduced: Bases Empty: .295 (t-10th in AL) Men On Base: .317 (11th in AL) RISP: .369 (14th in AL) The Royals just haven't been playing well in the clutch. Dave Cameron points to regression to the mean, meaning that these poor numbers under pressure should revert to average numbers over time and the team should be playing more like a .500 team. After all, shouldn't the fans just be expecting the team to play .500 ball as they are so young? Throw in the fact that many of their top pitching prospects are still on the farm and it becomes even more obvious. Still, results are results and there may be more to the lack of ability for a team to play well in the clutch. A manager is supposed to provide confidence in his players that they can excel under pressure. A manager is supposed to pull the right triggers to squeeze a little more run production out of the offense when it struggles. A manager must appropriately recognize pitching situations that his young staff is getting into and adjust who's on the mound accordingly. For those reasons, shouldn't we ask: "Is it time for Ned Yost to go?"

Kellogg tries out for the NFL

Chris — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 13:00:24 +0000

"With their first pick in the draft, the Baltimore Ravens take Umpire Jeff Kellogg." The above statement is one of the main reasons I would not be a good baseball game announcer. Umpire Jeff Kellogg would've given me the chance to voice that remark over the loudspeakers that would've likely gotten me a pink slip by the Orioles staff. But it would've been fun to make that statement after Kellogg's recent tackle of a streaker in Baltimore: [media id=36 width=320 height=240] Technically speaking, Jeff was supposed to stay back from the streaker running on the field and let security take care of everything. Taking things into your own hands is the quickest way to find yourself listed in a lawsuit. THIS OF COURSE IS VERY UNFORTUNATE AND A PATHETIC REFLECTION ON WHAT OUR SOCIETY HAS BECOME. Yes, I just yelled there. But it is completely warranted. This lawsuit-crazy society has resulted in the handcuffing of many of the better people from personally policing the vapid lawbreakers around us. But enough of the rants on the current state of society. Kellogg's tackle was great to watch. Notice how he played it calm until the streaker was walking away from him. He wrapped up the streaker and planted him into the ground with a move that would bring a smile to Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis. Note that he still held his face mask in his hand while tackling the streaker, he didn't even need to drop his gear to be effective. Jeff then held the perp down until the police arrived and walked away from the scene. Thankfully, there was one aspect that looked very little like an NFL sack, he didn't provide some celebratory dance, just went back to the game at hand. This is apparently the fourth time this young season that an Orioles game has been interrupted by streakers. Outfielder Adam Jones had an interesting idea of having a K9 unit on the field to strike fear into would-be streakers. However, maybe they should just hire more umpires to provide security.

Philip Humber’s Perfection is Everyone Else’s Loss

Chris — Wed, 25 Apr 2012 13:00:17 +0000

Philip Humber's recent perfect game was great to watch (and great for my fantasy team). It's also good to see Humber take the additional attention with a level of humbleness. Then again, it's easy to explain why he is so humble in the midst of the accolades surrounding him, until recently he's been waiver bait. The well-spoken Dave Cameron recently wrote an article about Humber in the wake of his perfecto and noted the changing of his repitoire under pitching guru Don Cooper. This is a very interesting read and highly suggested. But what it also points out, is that Humber was waiver bait until just last season. Check out this list of organizations he's been in: Mets Twins Royals Athletics White Sox In total, it's a mix of five teams in roughly four years. Each one of the first four teams could have nurtured the former 3rd overall pick into a viable starter, but they didn't. The most notable being the Minnesota Twins, who picked him up as a major part of a package that was sent to them for Johan Santana. I have written about the implications of that trade twice since the original Trade Bait article. Most recently about Omar Minaya's end of the deal, but also earlier about the Twins' lack of return in the deal (including Humber). Although I was high on his ability early on, his poor peripheral statistics soured my later opinions. So credit Kenny Williams on taking a flyer on Humber, Don Cooper for the magic he works with his pitchers, and Humber for the effort that it takes to improve. Humber's evolution is no fluke, his natural ability has been there, it just had to be refined and honed into something capable of pitching the 21st perfect game in Major League history.

Fearless Predictions – 2012

Chris — Sat, 07 Apr 2012 19:38:59 +0000

Every year the major media outlets make their "bold" predictions as to who will win it all. I go a step further and predict the final standings and some other predictions along the way.

Submit an Article

Chris — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 14:00:20 +0000

Have a you desire to write an article about a specific signing or trade that has gone down, but don’t have your own website? Spot a quirky statistic that might suggest a player’s breakout in the coming season, but have no place to talk about it? The Baseball Opinion is trying something new, at least for this website. The "Your Opinion" page was created to allow readers to submit their own articles for possible publishing on the site. If you're interested, head over to the "Your Opinion" page to find out more information.

Rookies to Look For: Neftali Soto

Chris — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 13:55:48 +0000

Recently the Cincinnati Reds shipped off first base prospect Yonder Alonso in a trade to acquire pitcher Mat Latos. With All-Star first baseman Joey Votto already entrenched in Cincy, Alonso was blocked and became a viable piece of trade bait. But Alonzo wasn't just blocked from his approach to the Majors, he was being pushed from behind as well. First baseman Neftali Soto just completed his first full season at Double-A and was knocking on the door of Triple-A, where Alonzo has been playing first. There's no doubt that Soto's bat is his calling card. More specifically, his power, as he crushed 31 home runs last season in the minors. He's a definite power source that has turned it on as he has risen through the minors and learned to hit to opposite field. There are some doubts about his ability to hit in the high minors and more notably in the majors though. He's still learning how to hit, but his patience at the plate has been paltry all along. Except for a couple lower outliers, his walk rate has been relatively steady in the 5.5-6.0% range, not a good indicator of future success. Defensively, it's an uglier picture. He's went from shortstop, to third, to catcher, and now first base. According to the reports I have read, he's adequate at first base at best. That type of response makes you wonder about the look on scouts faces when they watched him field at short. In Neftali's defense though, he only 18 when he was drafted and has grown significantly since. As for his future, I can see him as a cheap replacement at first base when Joey Votto is either shipped out of town via trade or leaves on his own accord via free agency. Whether he can last with his lack of plate discipline is a another question that can only really be answered in time. He still has time to refine his eye at the plate, but at this point I see him as more of a Four-A hitter.

TBO has been Mobilized

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Over Spilled Milk: Harden to the Cubs

Chris — Thu, 01 Mar 2012 23:15:17 +0000

Earlier this week the Oakland Athletics announced that Scott Sizemore tore his ACL and would be out for the entire 2012 season. As the Athletics don't have many other options, they stated that they are going to try converted catcher Josh Donaldson at third. The notion rose an eyebrow here as Donaldson's has had experience at the hot corner, in the past, but overall it is pretty limited. Then again, they brought Scott Hatteburg out from behind the plate a decade ago, so "why not"? (They don't have Ron Washington around anymore to tutor him though) Regardless, Donaldson's name piqued my interest as he was involved in a trade a few seasons ago. As we neared the trade deadline in 2008, the Milwaukee Brewers were in a division title race with the Chicago Cubs. In a bold move, the Brewers traded for ace starting pitcher CC Sabathia. With little on the trade market of Sabathia's caliber, the Cubs took what they could get and acquired Rich Harden, a starting pitcher that had been known to possess the stuff to compete with Sabathia, but never put it all together for a completely healthy season. At the time I stated,

"Rich Harden is a game changing starter when healthy, when rarely healthy that is. He has electric stuff, but he really hasn't turned into a star because of his injuries. Although he's only pitched 77 innings so far, it's the most since 2005. But he's also dominated this season as he has carried a 2.34 ERA with 92 strikeouts, while compiling a 5-1 record."

That level of dominance was enough to draw the Cubs' interest with the hope that he'd stay healthy the rest of the season. Then GM Jim Hendry traded Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher and the aforementioned Josh Donaldson for Harden and and reliever Chad Gaudin. Harden would go on to post 12 more starts in a Cubs uniform, with even more dominant numbers (5-1, 1.77 ERA, 0.972 WHIP, and 89 K in 71.0 IP). The Cubs certainly got what they were looking for and it helped keep them in the lead in the NL Central, ending with a league-leading 97 wins. However, the Cubs were swept by the Dodgers in the first round of the playoffs that season. Harden came back the following season, but didn't pitch as well. In 26 starts, Rich only gave up 122 hits in 141 innings, while striking out 171. But he also gave up 67 walks, pushing his WHIP up to 1.34 and his ERA to 4.09. Between the increased walks and the fact that Harden still couldn't get close enough to the 200 inning plateau, it was being realized that Harden couldn't become the dependable ace that the Cubs envisioned. He was granted his free agency in the winter of 2009 and posted two seasons of 5.00+ ERAs with the Rangers and the Athletics since. Gaudin had bounced between starting and relief in Oakland and the Cubs were intent on keeping him in the pen. But things didn't work out as Chad posted a 1.427 WHIP and a 6.26 ERA after the trade. He was released by the Cubs in the spring of 2009 and has bounced around to five other teams since. The Cubs' return on the trade was a post-season birth that they (would likely have gotten to anyway), a 4.0 WAR for 1.5 seasons of Harden and a -0.5 WAR from Gaudin. Outfielder Matt Murton was the first player mentioned in the Athletics' return for Harden. He showed some promise for the Cubs, producing good OBPs early on, but lacked the power to really be considered a starting corner outfielder. But in 2008 he fell apart and the Athletics must've thought they were buying low with the thought that Murton would bounce back. Yet he sank even lower, batting .100 with a .262 OPS (-0.2 WAR). In February of the following year he was dealt to the Colorado Rockies for infielder Corey Wimberly. Like Murton, Wimberly had interesting OBPs in the minors, but never received a call-up. He recently signed a minor league contract with the Mets. Eric Patterson rose through the Cubs system as a second baseman and put up some good OBPs along the way (see a trend here?). However some scouts questioned his defense and, although he has spent some time there in the majors, much of this time defensively has been in the outfield. Cast into a utility role, the Athletics kept him around for three seasons to see how well he fit into that role for them. Although he wasn't hitting well when he was traded, Eric fell apart at the plate after the move to Oakland, batting .174 with a .269 OBP. He rose to a career-bast .287/.373/.394 line in 110 AB in 2009. Yet he hasn't hit above .226 since and he's shuffled around to Boston and San Diego as a result. The Athletics received Fabian Williamson from the Red Sox for Patterson in a December 2010 trade. The lefty hasn't been able to post a WHIP below 1.70 since he was traded to the Athletics. Gallagher was a right-handed starting pitcher that was at one time highly regarded. Yet Sean gave up too many hits and had some control issues. After the trade to the A's, Sean gave up 9.5 H/9 and 5.7 BB/9 that resulted in a 5.88 ERA. He was switched to relief the following season and his statistics didn't show an improvement from at as he was pounded to a 1.953 WHIP. He was eventually shipped off to San Diego in a package with two others in a trade for Scott Hairston. Sean has since moved around and is now with the Cincinnati Reds on a minor league contract. That brings us to the man of the hour, John Donaldson. Donaldson is a former first round draft pick (48th overall) of the Cubs. A catcher since he was drafted, Donaldson has been tried out in the infield and outfield corners since he was traded for by the A's. He's displayed some pop in the minors and seems to be progressing with the bat overall. So far, he's played a total of 53 games at third base in the minors, so his defense is surely in question at this time. As it sits, Donaldson is Billy Beane's best chance at coming out ahead on this deal, and the chances are slim. Although moving back out from behind the plate may allow for Donaldson's bat to improve, I'm not sure if he will hit enough to warrant regular playing time. So far Beane's efforts have resulted in a -2.6 WAR from the four players, much of it from Gallagher's struggles. At the time of the trade I stated in a post:

"Although other writers are claiming this an even trade for the teams or even a win for the Athletics, I believe that the Cubs will come out the winners if Harden can stay healthy long enough to get the Cubs into the playoffs."

For this trade I give Jim Hendry a hearty B+ due to the fact that Harden was instrumental to the Cubs reaching the playoffs that season and that he didn't give up anyone that has moved on to produce even league average in the majors. The grade would've been higher if there was a decent impact beyond 2008. As for Beane, this trade gives him a D grade that could quickly drop to a D- if he's unable to get anything out of Donaldson. The players he traded had a cumulative negative WAR impact on the ball club. His only saving grace is the fact that he likely wouldn't have been able to keep Harden after the 2009 season, especially if Rich had stayed healthy.

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Where to go Oswalt?

Chris — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 14:00:07 +0000

A couple seasons ago Roy Oswalt was a well-regarded starting pitcher and synonymous with the word "ace" in Houston. Now pitchers and catchers have reported to spring training and he is still without a job. But Oswalt still has good stuff, when he's healthy. It seems like a regular occurrence that Roy is on the DL for at least a little time during the season, usually with a back issue. So, who's going to look past his injury history to sign the talented pitcher? I've always been a fan of Oswalt, mainly for his relatively small size. Though the 6'-0" pitcher is taller than the writer of this post, he's somewhat short when profiled against the prototypical starting pitcher. Regardless of his size, Roy still has the ability to be viable mid-rotation starter when healthy. There have been four main teams linked with Oswalt this winter. The first, the Washington Nationals, have capped off their notable rotation improvements this winter with a one-year deal with Edwin Jackson. They are seemingly out of the running as their rotation is more than full and have been even shopping around John Lannan. The Boston Red Sox have been interested in signing Oswalt, especially after dealing off Marco Scutaro. However, Oswalt didn't seem interested for geographical reasons. The Cardinals and Rangers have full rotations, but both have been rumored to be interested in Oswalt as a reliever. Yet there are rumors that the Rangers are trying to offload Koji Uehara to free up the funds and roster space for Oswalt. The Mississippi native seems interested in staying in or near the southeast and obviously wants to play for a potential contender as he is in the twilight of his career and wants to take home a ring before it too late. That leaves the options limited. Beyond those already listed, the Astros are rebuilding; the Braves and the Rays have rotations that are overflowing; the Marlins' rotation seems full; the Reds, Royals, and Pirates seem too far away and possibly too far away from contention. The choices are certainly limited for Oswalt, but some team will find the payroll room to sign him. There's just too much talent left in his arm to not sign the former Astros ace.