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Padres Contenders?
Sure, you are thinking that I slipped and fell in the shower today and bonked my head, yet listen to the following reasoning before jumping to conclusions. After one of Adam Eaton’s rather dominating performances recently it started the ole’ noggin thinking about next year. Yes, the Padres are far from contending this year, but a quantum leap is entirely possible next year.
After numerous problems from voter support to naming rights, the new stadium for the Padres will open at the beginning of the 2004 season. Although not the significant boost to a team’s payroll as it once was back in the Jacob’s Field / Camden Yards era, the new stadium should provided a decent influx of funds into the team for a short time.
Let us first take a look at the current team. Gary Bennett is a decent backstop, but the team wants Wiki Gonzalez to develop like they thought he would. His ability to handle a staff has yet to be seen though. If he doesn’t develop, they might see something in Mike Rivera, a power hitting catcher that could be decent behind the plate for San Diego. As it will be mentioned numerous times later in the article, the Padres will have a good amount of funds to spend on free agents this off-season. Has Ivan Rodriguez crossed your mind?
Phil Nevin or Ryan Klesko will be manning first base and be significant contributors, as they usually are.
Second base is an interesting position. Jake Gautreau has been deemed as the successor to the position, as soon as next year, but he has recently been added to the DL yet again for a recurring intestinal disease. The significant amount of funds that Towers will have available to him this off-season could point to second base. This off-season there will be some significant free agent second basemen available including Fernando Vina, Luis Castillo, and Roberto Alomar. Any of those three could give an immense boost to a lineup void of a significant leadoff candidate. However, Vazquez, who is has played short for the past couple years, has also played second base and could move back there again, providing a cheap alternative to free agent signings.
Moving on to shortstop, Padres GM Kevin Towers has been drooling over Khalil Greene ever since he drafted him. Greene might get pushed to play there next year.
Third base has Sean Burroughs staring down the barrel of a gun. There has always been high expectations put on this son of a former major leaguer. Cornerstone offensive leader Phil Nevin has stated more than once that he would prefer to play third, beginning rumors of a Burroughs trade. Yet Nevin’s defense at the hot corner has been atrocious in the past, while Sean can snag it pretty well there.
In left field, let’s predict Nevin to return to the order in force and adjust to playing the outfield like Chipper Jones has done in Atlanta. He has stated in the past that he would rather play third, and the injury that he suffered this year happened in the outfield, further complicating things. Yet he still is one of those cornerstone players and is not being paid compared to what others that produce as much as him.
Center field is an interesting position. Mark Kotsay is a good, hard-nosed player that will hit plenty of doubles into the gaps. He is somewhat overpaid right now and he will see an adjustment this winter when he becomes a free agent. They may resign him, but they have a young hitter in the minors tearing it up. Jason Bay has exploded this year at AAA (as of the start of May), although scouts haven’t talked about him playing in center, he has played there this season. If they do decide to trade Nevin or Burroughs, moving Bay to a corner spot, could they sign a decent free agent centerfielder?
Right field is expected to be Xavier Nady’s for the next few years. He will provide some good power from that position, although I doubt that he will carry a high average, he should be a good .280/25-30HR/80-90RBI type of 5-6 hole hitter. Due to some arm problems from the past there are some beliefs though that he will eventually move to left.
As for the pitching staff, Kevin has done a pretty good job gathering talented arms within the organization. Although he’s not the ace that some are saying he is, Brian Lawrence should be a very good 3-hole starter for this rotation. So who’s at the top? Adam Eaton had been touted before blowing out his arm, now he is back and although he may tire later this season, he should become the staff ace that this team needs. He definitely has the stuff. By next year, either Jake Peavy or Oliver Perez should be second in the rotation and dominating many hitters. Of course Ben Howard cannot be forgotten in the gathering of this rotation as well.
The open wallet comes to mind as well when it comes to the rotation. Rumors floated last off-season that Maddux would be interested with signing with the Padres due to their proximity to Las Vegas. That veteran presence for a couple years could solidify this young rotation into dauntless winners.
As for closer, this is a touchy subject. Trevor Hoffman is just coming off of major surgery and it is yet to be seen if he will be the same dominant closer he was. He is also a free agent at the end of the year and the Padres will have to decide if nearly $10 million is worth keeping Hoffman. You know teams like the Mets will be interested. The hometown discount will be the only way to get him back in a Padres uniform. If not, they have thrown out rumors of Dennis Tankersley or Oliver Perez for the position.
But beware, they also have to plan for arbitration and long term contracts.
Lets look at the potential lineup:
2B L. Castillo / R. Alomar / F. Vina / R. Vazquez
C/SS Ivan Rodriguez / Khalil Greene
1B Ryan Klesko
LF Phil Nevin
RF Xavier Nady
3B Sean Burroughs
CF Jason Bay
SS/C Khalil Greene / Mike Rivera
STA Greg Maddux????
STA Adam Eaton
STA Brian Lawrence
STA Jake Peavy
STA Oliver Perez
ALT STA Ben Howard
CLO Trevor Hoffman
