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Rookies to Look For: Cajun God of Baseball
Shortstop Reid Brignac was drafted in the second round of the 2004 draft and has steadily risen through the Rays’ farm system ever since. This shortstop was praised early on with his plate discipline and ability to hit for average with decent pop. In 2006 he started dazzling fans with a .328/.384/.560 performance at High-A ball, blasting 21 home runs and 26 doubles along the way. But many scouts believed that a position switch to second or third was probable down the line.
Reid suffered a down year at Double-A in 2007 as he hit .260 and racked up 94 strikeouts. But many said that his range at short had improved as he looked more like a shortstop prospect than in the past.
This season his batting average has improved to .286 so far, but his 8/40 walk to strikeout ratio is still ugly. If he can drastically improve his plate discipline over the next couple months, he could get a call-up and possibly play over the poor hitting Jason Bartlett.
Down the road the Cajun God of Baseball may turn into a viable major league shortstop if his plate discipline improves. If he can maintain a 2:3 walk to strikeout ratio, I can see him possibly hitting .280 with 20 home runs in the majors after a couple seasons of adjustments.
Rookies to Look For: Clayton Kershaw
Ever since he was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers with the seventh overall pick in the 2006 draft, he has been one of the team’s top prospects. This power-pitching lefty has great stuff and he displayed it as he shot through the Dodgers’ minor league system. Even though he’s still only 20 years old, the fact that he’s struck out more than a batter per inning at each stop in the minors says something.
Kershaw displays a very good fastball for being a lefty. It comes in with good movement at about 92-96 mph. He also displays a very good curveball that he many times uses as a strikeout pitch. For a third pitch, he’s learning a changeup. It’s still a work in progress, but he’s learning it fast. He tends to let his leading arm fly open too fast, leading to some wildness, but it’s not uncommon amongst young pitchers.
Baseball America did an interview with him in 2007. The young lefty seems to have a pretty decent head on him.
If Kershaw refines his changeup and lowers his walk rate with some improvement in his mechanics, he could be a very good #2 starter for the Dodgers, possibly even a staff ace.
Trade Bait: Baek to the Padres
Finally some interesting trade business going on! On Wednesday, the San Diego Padres acquired Cha-Seung Baek from the Seattle Mariners. Ok, so interesting went out the door, but it’s still a trade to review.
Baek, who turns 28 on Thursday, is a right-handed pitcher from Korea. Originally signed by the Mariners in 1998, Baek never held an ERA over 4.00 in the minors until he hit Triple-A. He supposedly has a high-80s fastball, a slider, curve, and a changeup. His slider is supposedly his best pitch, but the lack of velocity and the straightness of it means that he has to nibble with it to be effective. This season has been the first that Baek has been used mainly in relief and the results haven’t been too promising. Although his hits per nine has reduced, Baek’s walk rate has increased. But he hasn’t had a walk rate problem in the past and Padres have started to become famous for turning cast-offs into decent relievers.
The Mariners got reliever Jared Wells in return. Wells throws a low-90s fastball, and has a pretty decent slider. But his changeup is largely underutilized and he has poor control. Since he joined the Padres system in 2003, he has had only one season with a WHIP below 1.32. The Padres switched him to relief full time part of the way through the 2007 season, trying to turn him into a viable reliever, but his control problems have continued to hold him back.
Although it looks as if Wells has better overall stuff, Baek seems to be a more refined pitcher. Even though Mariners’ GM Bill Bavasi was backed into a corner to trade Baek after he DFA’d him, I believe that Kevin Towers still got a little better package in this trade that probably won’t amount to much anyway.
Over Spilled Milk: Urbina for Ohka, Rundles
In the infancy of The Baseball Opinion, I reviewed a trade of the once-dominating reliever Ugueth Urbina from the then Montreal Expos to the Boston Red Sox. Ugueth Urbina, or “Ugie”, was recovering from an injury in 2001, but was starting to show he was back to his dominant form, enough that he interested the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline.
Although Urbina carried a 4.24 ERA with Expos, he seemed to find his groove with the Red Sox, notching 9 saves while sporting a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings. He then went on to post 40 saves the following season for the Red Sox before leaving via free agency. Ugie went on to pitch for a few other teams until he ran into some severe legal problems (14 years of jail worth) in his native Venezula.
In return for Urbina, the Expos brought back pitchers Tomo Ohka and Rich Rundles. Ohka was a decent innings-eater for the Expos/Nationals from 2002-2005. Although he compiled a losing record (31-34) over that span, Tomo did have an ERA under 4.00 for three of those five seasons (or parts of seasons) with a team that carried a relatively unproductive offense. He was traded during the 2005 season for second baseman Junior Spivey in an attempt to fill the void left by an injured Jose Vidro. Spivey didn’t amount to much for the Nationals and Ohka started a downward spiral after leaving Washington.
Rich Rundles was a lefty that had a decent chance of making it to the majors based mainly on his left-handed arm and the low walk rates that he was posting for Boston’s Single-A Augusta team that year. He was putting up a 2.43 ERA in 115 innings, while walking only 10. He progressed slowly through the Expos/Nationals system, never really impressing after the trade. Rich has recently bounced from team to team the past couple years, showing his best success over the past couple seasons with the Indians after finally switching to full-time relief. His line so far this season is interesting as he has 24 Ks in 18.1 innings, but his 11 walks are a large reason why he has a 3.93 ERA. It doesn’t look as if he’s been used strictly as a lefty specialist though, an aspect that may be more intriguing.
Although at the time I proclaimed that the Red Sox would come out the victor of this trade, it looks somewhat different now. Urbina did help repair the Red Sox bullpen at the time and was pretty dominant as their closer in 2002. But, in rebuttal, Ohka was a solid innings eater for the Nationals for a few seasons. Essentially, I would call it closer to a tie for these two clubs. Even though Ohka was solid for the Nationals for longer than Urbina was in Boston, Ugie’s presence as closer during that short period of time was more impressive. Had Boston received a compensation pick for Urbina and he turned out well, or Rundles turned into something more, the scales would have tipped one way or another.
Rookies to Look For: Jay Bruce
“Rookies to Look For” is a new section that I will be starting as I diversify the sections of Baseball Opinion. I will be reviewing talent that is nearly ready to make the jump to the majors and others that have surprised some by their quick jump to the big leagues.
Going into this season, Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jay Bruce was looked at by many as the top prospect in all of baseball. Many even picked him as the favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year race.
Bruce is a veritable 5-tool talent. He hits for a high average (currently at .366 in Triple-A), 30-40 home run potential, 20-30 stolen base abilities, has a good arm, and plays good all-around defense. He still needs to improve his plate discipline (11/39 BB/K ratio in 164 at-bats) to really succeed in the bigs, but his current 1.059 OPS is not a fluke. If Bruce were to be called up before the All-Star Break this season, and plays the rest of the season in majors, I could see him putting up a .300/25 HR/25 SB season as soon as 2009.
Although he has come up as a centerfielder, some scouts believe that he is more suited for right field. He is blocked in that spot by a future hall-of-famer in Ken Griffey Jr. From the sounds of it, the Reds would love to shed Griffey’s contract. But with Griffey hitting a lackluster .252,with an ugly .368 slugging percentage, it looks as if the team would have to eat a large portion of his contract in a trade.
But Reds’ GM Walt Jocketty is a true master of trades and he might be able to scrounge up something for Griffey. Reports from numerous blogs have said that the Seattle Mariners have expressed interest in him and Griffey has said in the past that he would like to end his career there. The Mariners could conceivably move Raul Ibanez to DH and ask Griffey to play left field so that Wladimir Balentien could continue to settle in right field. Or, if the feel that Balentien is overmatched, he could be sent down for more seasoning.
He’s also expressed interest in the past of playing for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves currently have Gregor Blanco playing over a slumping Matt Diaz. Although Blanco has held an on-base percentage of over .400 for the past month, he has no power and his stolen base to caught stealing ratio last season at Triple-A was dreadful (23/18), leaving him as a basic fourth or fifth outfielder.
Wherever he goes, it looks like Junior is on his way out of town. The Reds may try to wait for him to hit home run number 600 before they pull the trade, but his days are truly numbered as the team cannot hold Jay Bruce back much longer.
Lester Fires No-Hitter
In an amazing story of recovery and resurrection, Boston Red Sox pitcher John Lester pitched a no-hitter on Monday night. John Lester missed the 2006 season with a rare form of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, he then came back in limited duty in 2007, eventually pitching 5 2/3 scoreless innings in the final game of the World Series. But it was his most recent start that was his greatest. On the night, Lester allowed only two base runners on walks and struck out nine batters with his mid-90s heat.
On the season, John is 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA, pretty good start for your first full season back from cancer. Red Sox GM Theo Epstein really knew what he was doing not giving up Lester in any of the various trade offers that has gotten. Lester was mentioned numerous times last off-season in possible deals for pitcher Johan Santana. He was also requested in a possible deal to get Andruw Jones from the Atlanta Braves.
Keep it up John, we’re rooting for you.
Slew of Long Term Deals
What is this, signing young star players to long term contracts week? After a few of these deals hit the wire late in spring training, it looks as if the Evan Longoria deal really got GMs thinking about locking up even pre-arbitration players to long term contracts.
First, rumors circulated that Hanley Ramirez would be signed to a long term deal. The deal turned out to be one of the most team-friendly deals to be seen this week due to Ramirez’ more proven abilities and that he carries no trade protection with the new deal.
Then came along Scott Kazmir of the Tampa Rays. It was often speculated that he would be eventually traded as the Rays have a wealth of pitching talent coming up through the minors and he could get some hole-filling offensive prospects in return. But the Rays locked up their ace pitcher, showing the rest of the AL East they are finally ready to play with big boys (sitting in first place also helps).
The Milwaukee Brewers put their foot in the ring by giving Ryan Braun an extension as well. They had already been rumored to be negotiating with Braun as well as Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy and even Rickie Weeks. But this was the first deal to fall into place. As the days go by, it seems less likely that they will sign Fielder long term, but Hart may be a definate possibility.
To round out the week the Royals decided to jump into the foray and signed their star closer Joakim Soria to an extension the bought out a couple free agency years.
Overall, these deals are generally team-friendly as they give each team some payroll certainty and the players will usually get less than they do in arbitration and their first year or two of free agency. But the players do get a little more up front and early on, while they also gain the assurance that the are gauranteed to be paid during the span of their contracts.
But it does make you wonder, with the rash of these deals done for young stars, which team will get burned? With this many deals happening, and many more to come, what player will get injured or become ineffective? It has got to happen to at least one team.
Ryan Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, has been awarded the largest contract in history, Milwaukee Brewers history that is.Ryan Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, has been awarded the largest contract in history, Milwaukee Brewers history that is.Ryan Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, has been awarded the largest contract in history, Milwaukee Brewers history that is.
Braun Gets Paid
Ryan Braun, the 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, has been awarded the largest contract in history, Milwaukee Brewers history that is. By signing the contract, Braun will be guaranteed $45 million, but escalators will likely push that number upwards. Braun will get $455,000 in 2008, $745,000 next season, $1 million in 2010, $4 million in 2011, $6 million in 2012, $8.5 million in 2013, $10 million in 2014 and $12 million in 2015. He could earn an additional $6 million if he qualifies as a super-two player after 2009, it’s an unlikely scenario though.
Given that Ryan Howard was awarded $10 million in his first year of arbitration alone, this deal is a steal for the Brewers as Braun is seen by many to have a similar offensive impact as Howard. That’s a $6 million difference between what his 2011 salary and what he could get through arbitration.
But the deal does give him a little more money up front and through the first three years of the contract than he would have if he waited. The financial security of having a contract like this is also nice to have as well.
But the Brewers are taking a risk to save some money in the long term. Braun’s plate discipline is worse than Ryan Howard’s and, if it catches up to him, the Brewers could be stuck with production similar to what Howard is putting up this season. A .185 batting average is not worth $10 million a year, let alone the $12 million allotted to Braun for 2015.
This Just In: Ankiel has an Arm!
It’s always been known that St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Rick Ankiel has an arm, but last night solified that belief to any non-believers. On two occurances last night Rick gunned out runners. The first, from deep left-center, he put his throw into thirdbaseman Troy Glaus’ glove, about 3 inches from where he needed to tag the runner. The second, Ankiel pegged a runner with a bullet from essentially against the wall in straight-away center.
Rick started out as a pitcher, actually a highly rated prospect with a cannon of an arm, having devastating off-speed stuff to go with it. But after injuries and Steve Blass Syndrome, Rick switched to the outfield and became a power-hitting outfielder. His struggle and rise back to the majors after all he’s been through has even brought teary eyes to Cardinals’ skipper Tony LaRusa.
Although his mediocre plate dicipline will keep him from putting up high batting averages, Ankiel should be a good source of power for the team as he provides good defense in center and eventually right field.
After watching last night’s highlights, it’s less likely that runners are going to try to test his arm. I hope they do, it’ll be fun to watch.
Zito Back in the Rotation
The San Francisco Giants are sending their team’s biggest drain on their budget back into the rotation. Barry Zito, the $126 million dollar man, will be back from his temporary banishment to the Giants pen. It was so temporary, he didn’t even make an appearance out of the pen.
Zito, the team’s highest paid player, also has the highest number of losses in the majors (0-6) and an ERA (7.53) explaining why. His main problem is his lack of velocity on his fastball. It is topping out in the mid-80s, something that he can’t get by with unless he has Greg Maddux’ control or movement on it.
Some are saying that the only way he’ll get better is if he’s reunited with his old pitching coach, Rick Peterson. But even Omar Minaya, in his wheeling and dealing ways, wouldn’t touch Zito at this point with a ten foot pole.
This is going to get ugly, worse than Mike Maroth in 2003 ugly.
