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Trade Bait: Bucs and Mariners make Seven Player Deal
A rather interesting deal fell into place today as the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Seattle Mariners made a seven player deal. The Pirates will be sending shortstop Jack Wilson and pitcher Ian Snell to the Mariners for catcher Matt Clement, infielder Ronny Cedeno, and right handers Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.
The Mariners will receive the slick-fielding Wilson to fill the hole vacated by Yunieski Betancourt when he was traded to Kansas City. (It was a hole before he was traded, but that’s beside the point). Although he doesn’t bring much to the plate offensively, the Mariners pitchers should appreciate his defense behind them. He’s getting paid $7.25 million in salary for 2009 (Pirates will be paying all but $400k), with a team option at $8.4 million for 2010. You should be able to get someone with his characteristics on the free agent market in the winter for less.
Snell has been ugly this season and desperately needed a fresh start with a new team as he frustrated Pirates coaches. Sent down to Triple-A, he’s had a 0.96 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 37.1 innings in Indianapolis. He’ll likely start off in Tacoma, but once called up, Snell should benefit from spatious Safeco Field. Snell’s owed $4.25 million in 2010 and then has two club options for 2011 and 2012. But the Pirates paid all of this season’s salary except for $400k, like Wilson.
Matt Clement is the most notable name of the players the Pirates will receive. The former top prospect has had knee problems and problems hitting southpaws. His value has dropped considerably over the past couple years. If Ryan Doumit stays behind the plate, Clement could be slotted into first base and platoon with Steven Pearce until he figures out left-handed pitching.
Ronny Cedeno is a decent defensive infielder who hasn’t hit well in the majors. He might battle it out with prospect Brian Bixler to see who will be amongst the poorest hitting regular shortstops in the majors next season if the team wants Ramon Vazquez coming off the bench.
Aaron Pribanic is a good ground ball pitcher with a fastball that reaches up to 94 mph, an average slider (at times), and a decent changeup. In the Midwest League this season he’s given up two earned runs or less in 12 of his 13 outings. But he’s without a good enough arsenal to remain in the starting rotation in the majors. He does have the stuff to be a decent reliever though.
Lorin relies on his good command and a decent breaking ball. His fastball is only average right now and sits in the low-90s, but he’s tall and hasn’t pitched that long, leading to a possible improvement in his fastball as he fills out. He also has an improving curve ball. If the Pirates move him along slowly, Lorin could possibly turn into a 4th starter if he adds a few ticks to his fastball.
Adcock has a low-90s fastball and a good curve, but suffers from command problems. He also gets a high amount of ground balls. Pirates staff will have to improve his command for him to go any further though.
Overall, this looks like a decent deal for the Pirates as they actually got something for an overpaid, under-hitting shortstop and a pitcher that has struggled mightily lately. Still Clement will have to start hitting lefties to be of good value to this team and, although they are all decent pitching prospects, the righties that the Pirates received are not that great of prospects. But Jack Zduriencik may have found a diamond in the rough in Snell. We shall see.
Trade Bait: Garko to Frisco
The San Francisco Giants have been in need of an infusion of offensive talent since before the season even began…the 2008 season. Yesterday GM Brian Sabean tried to patch part of the team’s offensive woes by trading for Cleveland Indians first baseman Ryan Garko. Garko, who is having a .285/.362/.464 season with 11 HR and 39 RBI in 273 at-bats, is a definite offensive improvement over Travis Ishikawa at first.
But is he really that much of an improvement for the team as a whole? If healthy Garko could produce 15-20 HR and 60-75 RBI somewhat regularly in a decent lineup. But that’s relatively mediocre for a first baseman. His bat doesn’t really portray the offensive respect needed to protect somebody in the lineup in front of him.
The Indians received left-handed pitching prospect Scott Barnes in return for Garko. Barnes was an 8th round pick in 2008. He’s a lefty that relies on good control and his off-speed offerings. Scott’s fastball usually sits around 90mph on the gun. He uses his changeup as his out pitch and his decent curve to keep hitters off balance. Barnes currently has a 2.85 ERA in 18 starts with High-A San Jose. Baseball America rated him the Giants’ 9th best prospect coming into the season.
Essentially, Sabean traded a decent pitching prospect for a right-handed first baseman with mediocre production. Sure, he has Garko under control for the next three years, but his value will likely not climb as fast as his arbitration raises.
It’s Just Speculation: Halladay to the Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are in dire need of another arm at the top of their rotation. They are also the team best situated with the talent needed to land Halladay if the Blue Jays decide to deal Halladay away. On the final day of the soft deadline (as set by the Jays) of the sweepstakes, the Phillies are the most talked about team in the hunt.
Apparently Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi has asked for a package of prospects that includes starter Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown, as well as starter J.A. Happ. But that was turned down by the Phillies and countered with a package of Happ, starter Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald, and outfielder Michael Taylor, to which they were rebuffed.
Can the two teams find some middle ground?
The Blue Jays look like they are interested in two starters. But what the Phillies want to give up and the the Jays desire are two different things. If the Jays value Drabek more than Happ, could middle ground be found by having a package that included Drabek and Carrasco?
One position that Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi specifically noted that he wanted to address in a possible trade was shortstop. Current Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins is locked in for a while, leaving prospect Jason Donald blocked at the major league level. Although he likely wouldn’t be the top prospect traded, Donald could be enticing.
This would present a scenario that would have Drabeck, Carrasco and Donald heading to Toronto for the perennial ace. Based on the reports above, it is likely not enough. An additional couple prospects may be needed to lure the Blue Jays down from Happ to Carrasco and Brown to Donald.
If the Blue Jays are uneasy about J.P. Arencibia‘s ability to hit for average in the majors, they may be interested in catching prospect Lou Marson.
Then there’s a list of “C” prospects that might be able to round out a deal.
- Anthony Gose – Speedster outfielder has 56 stolen bases so far this season in A-ball.
- Mike Stutes – Innings eater that is 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA at Double-A.
- Joe Savery – 12 wins at Double-A.
But it may be Jason Knapp that could nail down the trade for the Phillies. Knapp only has a 4.01 ERA in A-ball, but he’s given up only 63 hits in 85.1 innings and has struck out 111.
A package of Drabeck, Carrasco, Donald, Marson and Knapp? That’s prospects #2, 3, 4, 5 and 9 in Baseball America’spreseason prospect list for the Phillies. It would be a tough proposal push through. Sure, they’d be able to keep Happ, Brown and outfielder Jason Taylor, but most of the rest of the farm system would be cleaned out. Could Ricciardi be enticed with a package that switched out Knapp for Stutes? It would still have four of the team’s top five prospects (as ranked before the start of the season).
It’s looks less and less likely that Halladay will get traded. But it’s fun to speculate about the possible groupings of prospects that may entice the Jays to trade him and how the prospects could help Toronto. Phillies fans, what would you give up for a year and a half of Roy Halladay?
Trade Bait: Holliday to the Cardinals
Tony LaRussa has been pushing for the Cardinals to acquire a bat to protect Albert Pujols in the lineup. He got his wish today as St. Louis acquired Oakland A’s outfielder Matt Holiday in a four player trade. The Cards will send top prospect Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson, and pitcher Clayton Mortenson to the Athletics.
In Holliday, Pujols gets some protection in the lineup. Although Matt’s home run production drop has been heavily discussed, he’s still hitting .338/.413/.574 in July and has put up decent numbers since the beginning of May. Interestingly, Pujols’ current protection Ryan Ludwick, is having an even better July. But his entire season has been relatively streaky.
But is Holliday enough protection for Pujols? Teams are probably nearly as likely to walk Pujols in a tight situation and pitch to Holliday. Protection works best if the protector produces somewhat near the production of the player he’s protecting. Still, Holliday’s better than what Pujols had before.
In Wallace the A’s get a true hitter. He won’t hit 30+ home runs, but he should hit for average, walk well, and have 20 home run power eventually. Defense is by far his biggest weakness as he is very limited in range and should eventually move to first base. Brett may be up next season if Chavez doesn’t recover and eventually slide over to first base or DH. If Chavez is healthy, they will have a definate log jam at first/DH as they may have most of they players they have there now, and have Chris Carter coming along as well.
Shane Peterson was ranked the Cardinals 23rd overall prospect by John Sickels at the start of the season. He hits for a decent average and has gap power, but he’s looking like more of a fourth outfielder at this point.
Clayton Mortenson is a right-handed pitcher at Triple-A. He was ranked amongst the team’s top 10 prospects this past off-season, but he’s been relatively mediocre this season. Clayton has a 4.35 ERA on the season with 103 hits given up in 105 innings. He’s given up 34 walks, while striking out 82. According to FutureRedbirds.net, he has a low-90s four seam fastball, a good sinker, a ‘weak’ slider and a good straight change. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but the sinker and change enduce a good amount of ground balls. They profiled him as a mid-rotation starter, but I believe that he looks more like a middle reliever.
Although I am not raving about how great of a bounty that the A’s got in the trade as much as some analysts, I do believe that the A’s got a great return for Holliday. Just comparing this trade to the one that sent Teixeira to the Angels last season makes it a definate win for the Athletics. Teixeira was hitting better on the season at the time and the Braves only received Casey Kotchman and a reliever that might make it to the bigs. But the Cards are already benefitting from the trade as well as Holliday went 4-5 with a run, an RBI, and a stolen base in his first game playing for St. Louis.
It’s Just Speculation: Halladay to the Cardinals.
The St. Louis Cardinals have been heavily interested in Roy Halladay since rumors broke that the ace pitcher was available. The Cardinals would be able to head towards the playoffs with Halladay, Wainwright, and Carpenter fronting what would be a really good rotation down the stretch.
But do the Cardinals have the prospect depth that will be needed to attract J.P. Ricciardi to trade his ace? They have a few prospects, but enough elite players to draw J.P.’s interest?
No trade will likely be completed without probably the Cardinal’s most elite prospect, third baseman Brett Wallace. He’s a nearly Major League ready hitter that may eventually have to move to first base. But the Jays will need replace Scott Rolen soon and he’ll be ready to slide right in. The Cardinals have been rumored to be willing to part with Wallace to obtain outfielder Matt Holliday from the Athletics, so his status as an “untouchable” may be in question if the right deal comes along.
But the Blue Jays are said to be looking for a long-term solution at shortstop. Yet other than the light-hitting infielders Brendan Ryan and Tyler Greene, the Cardinals have only one other shortstop in their system of relative worth. Pete Kozma, a 21-year old that has struggled mightily in Double-A this season, would likely be the target. He’s relatively young for his first assignment to Double-A ball, so an improvement may be seen if whatever team he’s on practices enough patience in his development.
The Jays are also looking for big-league-ready pitching as well. The Cardinals do not have any true standouts in this category to head a trade with Wallace. Here are a few pitchers that might be of some interest:
- Jason Motte – power-arm reliever in St. Louis
- Jess Todd – has excelled in the pen, but may still be the PTBNL for DeRosa trade
- Mitchell Boggs – starter at Triple-A, seen time in the bigs this season
- Blake Hawksworth – decent starter at Triple-A, used in relief in majors
- Lance Lynn – starter at Double-A
- Francisco Samuel - reliever with MAJOR control issues at Double-A
- Fernando Salas - reliever at Triple-A
Just by looking at this crop of possible trade bait in the Cardinals system, it doesn’t look like the team has the pieces needed to deal for Halladay.
Trade Bait: Red Sox also Grab Duncan
The busy Boston Red Sox made a second trade on July 22nd. After trading for Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Adam LaRoche, the Sox also traded for St. Louis Cardinal outfielder Chris Duncan. But the trade wasn’t so much about getting the left-handed slugging outfielder, it was more about getting rid of infielder Julio Lugo.
Much like Orlando Cabrera and Edgar Renteria before him, Julio Lugo struggled in his time at shortstop for the Red Sox. With Jed Lowrie returning from an injury, GM Theo Epstein decided to clear the roster spot that Lugo was occupying by designating him for assignment. At that time we discussed Lugo in depth.
A change of scenery may help Lugo like it did Cabrera and Renteria once they left the Sox. He comes to St. Louis with no salary commitment from the Cardinals and will likely split time with Brendan Ryan at short. Interestingly, Khalil Greene is no where in the picture at short right now even though he’s about to return from the disabled list.
The Cardinals took on the struggling Felipe Lopez last season from the Washington Nationals and it worked out well as Lopez hit .395/.426/.538 in 156 at-bats after the trade. Nabbing Lugo may be a good pick up for the Cards too, not to the extent as Lopez, but he should bring offense to a position that has lacked it in St. Louis for some time.
Chris Duncan has little value anymore. Although his left-handed power was intriguing when he came up, Chris’ inability to make consistent contact eventually produced ugly batting averages. He’ll likely be stashed away in Triple-A as insurance, allowing a new set of coaches to work with his swing to see if they can eventually make him a usable bench player again. The Cardinals will also give up a player-to-be-named-later (PTBNL), or pay part of Lugo’s salary if the Sox don’t eventually pick a player.
Although this deal doesn’t look that good for Epstein, he was backed into a corner and was forced to pay all of Lugo’s salary to get anything at all in return for him. As for the Cardinals, they have Lugo through next season for no cost (unless the Sox do not pick the PTBNL). The Cards can fit him in at second or shortstop as they so desire and should get relatively decent offense out of him. A good trade for Mozeliak.
Trade Bait: Adam LaRoche to the Red Sox
With the Yankees starting to take a decent lead in the AL East, Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox made a move today to improve their offense for the stretch run. The Red Sox traded pitcher Hunter Strickland and shortstop Argenis Diaz to the Pirates for first baseman Adam LaRoche.
LaRoche is a left-handed power bat that should be a decent addition to the bench. He can play decent defense at first base. His UZR statistics differ from that opinion, but I’ve watched a few innings of his play personally and will argue that he’s a better defender than his UZR lets on. With Mike Lowell’s hip issues, the Red Sox will now be able to move Kevin Youkilis over to third base occasionally, letting LaRoche to get an occasional start. This has been a down season for LaRoche, but some of his struggles can presumably be attributed to the lack of protection he has in the lineup. He has nearly matched his 2008 total for intentional walks and his overall walk rate is 1.3% higher this season than last as well.
| Season | AB | 2B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| Total | 2646 | 192 | 123 | 370 | 426 | 278 | 627 | 0.269 | 0.338 | 0.486 |
| 2007 | 563 | 42 | 21 | 71 | 88 | 62 | 131 | 0.272 | 0.345 | 0.458 |
| 2008 | 492 | 32 | 25 | 66 | 85 | 54 | 122 | 0.270 | 0.341 | 0.500 |
| 2009 | 324 | 25 | 12 | 46 | 40 | 41 | 81 | 0.247 | 0.329 | 0.441 |
Strickland is a young righty with a low-90s fastball and mediocre off-speed stuff. His hit rate has increased and his strikeout rate has dropped since his promotion from Low-A ball. Neither are good signs especially at such a low level of the minors. SoxProspects.comhas a good review of Stickland on their site. Here are Hunter’s base statistics from FanGraphs:
| Season | Team | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO |
| 2007 | Red Sox (R) | 0 | 2 | 6.04 | 25.1 | 40 | 4 | 22 |
| 2008 | Red Sox (A-) | 5 | 3 | 3.18 | 70.2 | 67 | 17 | 59 |
| 2009 | Red Sox (A) | 5 | 4 | 3.35 | 83.1 | 85 | 13 | 51 |
Diaz is a slick fielding shortstop with a lackluster bat. The Providence Journal’sJoe McDonald compares Diaz to former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez and has an interview with him on Projo.com.
| Season | Team | AB | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2007 | Red Sox (A) | 405 | 62 | 40 | 36 | 92 | 5 | 9 | 0.279 | 0.342 | 0.380 |
| 2008 | Red Sox (A+) | 256 | 31 | 29 | 20 | 60 | 3 | 2 | 0.281 | 0.330 | 0.363 |
| 2008 | Red Sox (AA) | 139 | 20 | 23 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.417 |
| 2009 | Red Sox (AA) | 277 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 60 | 7 | 4 | 0.253 | 0.309 | 0.310 |
Essentially, Huntington got a possible future middle reliever and a possible bench infielder. It is questionable however that either player will reach the majors. It’s not much of a haul, but it’s probably the best he could get for two months of LaRoche in the midst of a down season from his averages. (You couldn’t match this deal Brian Sabean?!)
Twins Give Grudzy a Try
One move that has had very little press is the Twins’ signing of Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league deal the other day. Sure, Mark’s no ‘spring chicken’, but the 39 year old second baseman still has the ability to play. He won’t hit home runs (90 in his 14 year career), steal bases (6 in the past three years combined), or walk much (typically around a 5% BB%), but he does play decent defense and will hit for average.
Recently, the Twins have been playing Alexi Casilla at second base. On the season, Casilla had been hitting .340/.379/.449 at Triple-A, but he’s struggled in his time in Minneapolis. You rarely last long as a starting position player on a playoff hopeful team when you are batting .171. Check out these statistics on the two players (using Mark’s 2008 season):
| Season | Team | AB | R | RBI | BB | SO | SB | AVG | OBP | |
| Mark G. | 2008 | Royals | 331 | 36 | 24 | 19 | 41 | 2 | 0.299 | 0.345 |
| Alexi C. | 2009 | Twins | 125 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 3 | 0.176 | 0.237 |
Although I am not that big of a fan of UZR yet, it is clear that the seasoned vet has a clear advantage there as well.
| 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | |
| Mark G. | 10.9 | 5.3 | |
| Alexi C. | -8 | -0.8 | -21.1 |
Even though I am not a big fan of GM Bill Smith’s moves in the past, this looks like a good, cheap, low risk signing that could help the team more than the typical fan will notice.
Trade Bait: Brewers get Lopez
In the second of what could be many moves to dismantle the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, GM Josh Byrnes traded second baseman Felipe Lopez to the Milwaukee Brewers for two players. The Brewers will send outfielder Cole Gillespie and reliever Roque Mercedes in the deal.
The Diamondbacks had high hopes coming into the season after a good run in 2008 and many players seemingly coming into their prime. But injuries and under-performance have resulted in the team falling 19 games out of the lead for the NL West and far behind the pack in the NL Wildcard. Byrnes had already traded reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox and now they are trading their second baseman, just the first two of a few more that could leave town over the next couple weeks.
Felipe Lopez has rebuilt his value significantly since he was traded from the Washington Nationals last season. His time in a Nationals’ uniform was easily his worst tenure of his career. But a resurgence with the St. Louis Cardinals late last season increased his value enough for the Diamondbacks to sign him in the off-season and he has performed well for them as well. At the time of the trade, Felipe was hitting .301/.364/.412 with six home runs and six stolen bases. With Rickie Weeks on the shelf for the rest of the season (after getting off to a great start), the Brewers needed to fill the hole at second base. The nearly 39-year-old Craig Counsell and rookie Casey McGehee have done a good job filling in, but Counsell is best used coming off the bench and McGehee is needed more at third base with Bill Hall hitting below the Mendoza Line and Mat Gamel not hitting well in his first try at the majors. Additionally, Lopez will provide more offense than Counsell and better defense than McGehee at the position down the stretch.
Cole Gillespie was a hitting star for Oregon State University and played in the College World Series. But he hasn’t dazzled much since being a 3rd round draft pick of the Brewers in the 2006 draft. Although he has great patience at the plate (hasn’t had a OBP under .378 in the minors until this season), he lacks the ability to make contact and hit for the power needed of a corner outfielder without standout speed on the basepaths. He may still become a decent fourth outfielder though.
Roque Mercedes has had a breakout season this year in High-A, allowing just 26 hits in 41-2/3 innings. He has also struck out 45. His K/9 rate has also increased each season since 2006. He has a low-90s fastball and an above-average slider. Roque may be a decent middle reliever down the road.
There have been some immediate speculation that this is a precursor to a trade with the Blue Jays as some are thinking that the Brew Crew will package shortstop J.J. Hardy with some prospects to get Roy Halladay. But would J.P. Ricciardi accept a shortstop that has slumped all season (albiet with a plus bat) and deep into his arbitration years instead of prospect Alcides Escobar? Doubtful, but interesting to ponder.
It does look like a decent deal for both teams as Byrnes grabbed mediocre talent that could eventually be useful and the Brewers received a decent hitting infielder that can play multiple positions.
Julio Lugo DFA’d
The Boston Red Sox have recently designated infielder Julio Lugo for assignment. This will bring an end to Lugo’s time in Boston. A time that was fraught with disappointment as Lugo never really hit as well as he did with previous team, Tampa Bay.
Lugo hasn’t been all that bad in Boston this year. He’s hitting .284 with a .352 OBP in 109 at-bats. Below are some statistics from FanGraphs, including a calculation for a 600 at-bat season based on his current numbers.
| Season | AB | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP |
| Career | 4325 | 225 | 28 | 78 | 635 | 439 | 187 | 0.271 | 0.335 |
| 2007 | 570 | 36 | 2 | 8 | 71 | 73 | 33 | 0.237 | 0.294 |
| 2008 | 261 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 22 | 12 | 0.268 | 0.355 |
| 2009 | 109 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0.284 | 0.352 |
| 09 – 600AB | 600 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 44 | 17 | 0.284 | 0.352 |
There’s a few teams out there that would appreciate this type of production from their middle infield position at this time. The St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, and the San Francisco Giants could all use some offensive assistance at one or both of their middle infield positions. What may make him even more enticing to these teams is the recent history of under-performing shortstops in Boston. Both Edgar Renteria and Orlando Cabrera flopped in a Red Sox uniform, but started hitting well again outside of Boston.
As these teams may just wait until he clears waivers, Theo has little bargaining power in any trade proposal. He’d likely have to eat all of the salary owed to Lugo in his current deal, just to get a marginal prospect, rather than get nothing for him at all by letting him be released.
What is confusing to me is where was Dayton Moore amongst all this? Although he received some funds in the Betancourt trade to pay for his salary, he may have had Lugo for even cheaper in salary commitment AND in prospects.
