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Rainy Day Reading: Should the Giants Back off Lincecum?
Once in a while, while reading the various articles that Bottom9 Baseball links to, I come across an article that relates back to what I’ve already discussed. This was the case, in a way, about an article by Harry Pavlidis at Beyond the Box Score.
He wrote about how the San Francisco Giants should back Tim Lincecum off to protect his arm for the future. This reminded me of an article I wrote about the reigning Cy Young last season entitled Lincecum to have Two more Starts. In the article I referenced yet another article by another blog that was clamoring for the team to protect Lincecum’s arm.
Chris, over at Bay City Ball, has written an article about some somewhat alarming observations he has seen recently about Lincecum. The PITCHf/x numbers that are broken down about half way through the article show that Tim may be wearing down and it may not be a good time to stretch him out.
So reading this article is somewhat of a deja vue moment for me. In Harry’s article, he did a great speed plot of Tim’s pitches over the season, showing a decline over the latter part of the season. This provides even more reasoning why the Giant should look towards protecting their investment rather than pressing for a shot at the playoffs that they do not reasonably have a chance at. That is unless you actually think that a .397% chance, as calculated by Baseball Prospectus, is a chance.
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Get real Frisco. Rest your star pitcher and let Buster Posey get used to playing in the major leagues. With some key acquisitions this team could compete better next season. But at this point we all know that Sabean doesn’t have that ability.
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes: Nationals Clinch!!
With the Pittsburgh Pirates win yesterday the Washington Nationals have clinched the worst record in the majors and thus, the first overall pick in the 2010 draft. The Bryce Harper Sweepstakes may finally be over!
It is immediately assumed that the Washington Nationals will select the prized outfielder in next year’s draft. Here’s a few YouTube videos of the phenom in action:
Will he be future star like Alex Rodriguez or a projected star that busts like Todd Van Poppel? There’s also the impact of instant stardom. Maybe some time talking to Josh Hamilton would help him avoid pitfalls. On the surface they are similar….toolsy outfielders with good power that are projected as top picks right out of high school.
Be ready Bryce….be ready.
It’s Just Speculation: Vazquez for Fielder
The Milwaukee Brewers have the worst rotation ERA in the the National League and GM Doug Melvin has recognized the need to address the issue. But it will be hard for a team with the Brewers’ limited resources to outbid other teams for the limited crop of #1 or #2 type starters this off-season (see C.C. Sabathia). The Brew Crew may need to deal from a position of strength this winter and trade away a slugger.
With the emergence of Casey McGehee at third base, the Brewers can move offensive powerhouse prospect Mat Gamel to first base. This will hide his sub-par defense and allow him to concentrate on hitting a little more. Such a move would open the team up to trading prized first baseman Prince Fielder for pitching. Although Prince is under contract next season for $10.5 million, the following year (his last before free agency) he will be arbitration eligible and will likely command a rather large salary. Signing him long term would be tough with Scott Boras his agent. It would also be an unwise signing for the Brew Crew. In a long term contract, his knees (like his father) or other parts of his body will likely start to breakdown if he stays in the field. Prince belongs in the AL, where he can DH at least part of the time.
The Atlanta Braves have a great pack of starting pitching and could possibly have them all next season. If they pick up Tim Hudson’s option, they’ll that Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Tommy Hanson. The Braves could possibly trade one of those six and still have a very strong rotation. Javier Vazquez is having one of the best seasons in his career and has been rumored by many to be on the trading block after the season is over.
With their need for additional offense, the Atlanta Braves could try to trade Vazquez for Fielder. This looks like a good match up for both teams. Of course other players may need to be added with Vazquez to balance out the trade, but the basics of the trade are there. But it is probably the players that would be added that would be the stumbling block for such a trade.
Could it happen? Who else would be thrown in to even out the trade?
Bryce Harper Sweepstakes: 9/25/09
Roughly few weeks ago we went over the basis behind the Bryce Harper Sweepstakes. It’s a good time to look at the standings for the Sweepstakes again as we move toward a third of the way through the last month of the season.
Although teams aren’t intentionally losing with the desire to grab the top spot in next season’s draft, it is fun to watch it all fold out. Below is the rankings in the “race” for the worst record in the majors.
| Team | W | L | PCT | GB | L10 | STRK |
| Washington | 52 | 101 | 0.340 | – | 1-9 | L2 |
| Pittsburgh | 57 | 96 | 0.373 | 5.0 | 1-9 | W1 |
| Baltimore | 60 | 93 | 0.392 | 8.0 | 4-6 | L8 |
| Cleveland | 62 | 91 | 0.405 | 10.0 | 3-7 | W1 |
| Kansas City | 63 | 91 | 0.409 | 10.5 | 4-6 | L3 |
| Arizona | 66 | 88 | 0.429 | 13.5 | 4-6 | L2 |
| New York (NL) | 66 | 88 | 0.429 | 13.5 | 3-7 | W1 |
The Washington Nationals have led the Sweepstakes the entire time. But since we last checked in on 9/9/09 the Nationals have actually lost ground on their lead. Another 1-9 plunge has helped them keep ahold of first place.
But it is not the Kansas City Royals that are in second place anymore. The Pittsburgh Pirates have continued their downward plunge and are now in sole position of second place. But their recent 1-9 streak still can get them caught up to the Nationals and they will likely not overtake them for first place.
Baltimore and Cleveland have both really taken major dives recently. Baltimore is currently on an eight game slide and Cleveland recently lost 11 in a row. They too have moved ahead of Kansas City in the sweepstakes.
So how about those Royals? Their recent lack of significant losing has vaulted them into fifth place and out of the race for Harper.
Tejada wants to Stay
A little while ago Miguel Tejada told Richard Justice of the Houston Chronicle that he’d like to resign with the Houston Astros after his contract is up after the season. He’s even open to moving over to third base to suit the Astros’ needs.
Needless to say the Astros, nor any other team will offer him close to the $13 million that he made this season. But the Astros have lacked offensive production at third base since Morgan Ensberg’s big 2005. Tejada’s defensive issues lately have been range-related (according to FanGraphs), so a move to third base may get him back to an above average fielder. Miggy is also a very positive clubhouse presence.
But should the Astros do this? They don’t really have an option at the hot corner right now. Prospect Chris Johnson was supposed to man the spot at some point this season. But with only 21 walks and 90 strikeouts in 384 Triple-A at-bats, Johnson doesn’t look as if he’s able to handle major league pitching.
Hopefully the Astros are not considering him for shortstop though, his defense will only get worse as age creeps up on him. The Astros do have prospect Tommy Manzella in Triple-A who could probably step into the spot. Tommy got 530 at-bats in for Triple-A Round Rock this season for a line of .281/.323/.461. His 99 strikeouts are a little troubling as his 18.7% strikeout rate is the highest he’s held in the minors. He’s not much of a prospect, but Manzella could get the Astros by as they try to cut payroll down.
The Astros could also go for a low-priced free agent shortstop like John McDonald and Adam Everett. Neither infielder hits all that well, but they would provide a defensive boost to what could be a young pitching staff until Manzella develops further or another alternative can be found.
If Miggy can be had relatively cheap, keep him around Houston.
Rookies to Look For: Eric Young Jr.
The Colorado Rockies are trying out a new face in the field, but not an entirely new name. Eric Young Jr. was recently called up by the team who had his father starting at second base when the team started playing in 1993.
Like “EY”, Eric Young Jr. has blazing speed and gets on base well. Over the past four seasons he’s had an OBP under .387 only once. Most managers would give their left…. let’s just say they’d really like to have that type of OBP at the top of their lineup. His strikeout rates are a little high for a lead off hitter though.
| Season | Team | AB | R | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | BB% | K% |
| 2006 | Rockies (A) | 482 | 92 | 67 | 75 | 0.295 | 0.391 | 12.20% | 15.60% |
| 2007 | Rockies (A+) | 540 | 113 | 46 | 105 | 0.291 | 0.359 | 7.80% | 19.40% |
| 2008 | Rockies (AA) | 403 | 74 | 61 | 77 | 0.290 | 0.391 | 13.10% | 19.10% |
| 2009 | Rockies (AAA) | 472 | 118 | 56 | 79 | 0.299 | 0.387 | 10.60% | 16.70% |
Another problem with Jr. is his propensity to get caught stealing bases. Even though he stole an amazing 87 bases in 2006, Eric was caught 31 times for a 73.7% success rate. That’s decent but not efficient enough to be really successful in the bigs.
| SB | CS |
| 87 | 31 |
| 73 | 18 |
| 46 | 16 |
| 58 | 14 |
There’s also the fact that Young is blocked in the majors. Scouting reports have him as average to just below average at second base. From the video that I’ve seen, he looks a little stiff at the position. For three weeks before his call up, the Rockies tried him out in centerfield. This expands his usefulness as a pinch-runner off the bench if the Rockies make it to the post-season.
Lisa Winston of got milb? has a interview with Eric up on her site.
When talking of the future, the Rockies have a few candidates to play second and outfield. Young may not be a fit, but he might be decent trade bait with his expanded defensive options. A team in need of some speed and on-base ability at the top of their lineup should keep their eyes on the younger Young.
A “Wild” Ending for Triple-A
The Memphis Cardinals and the Durham Bulls squared off on Tuesday in a battle of the top two teams in Triple-A. Memphis, the Pacific Coast League winner, and Durham, the International League winner, played in a one game winner-take-all battle for the Triple-A crown. It was a good game to watch too…except for the end.
Both teams came into the game stacked with talent. The Cardinals trotted out sluggers like Allen Craig at DH with his 34 home runs, .322 batting average, and .921 OPS. They also had Mark Hamilton at first (.308 AVG/.906 OPS), David Freese at third (.300/.894), and Jarret Hoffpauir at second (.291/.843). Essentially, the Cardinals had a very potent lineup, like their parent organization in St. Louis.
Leading the Bulls’ offense was prospect Desmond Jennings in centerfield. Between two levels this season Jennings had a .318 AVG, an .888 OPS, and 57 stolen bases. They also had recent second base acquisition Sean Rodriguez (who hit a hard liner home run in the game). But it was the team’s pitching that got them to the playoffs. Pitchers like Wade David, Jason Cromer, and Carlos Hernandez and Tuesday night’s starter Jeremy Hellickson made their mark on the International League this year.
The two teams battled it out through 11 innings of great baseball. But all unraveled in the bottom of the 11th as the Durham Bulls’ catcher Michel Hernandez (hitting .196 on the season) smacked a double to start the inning. He was then replaced by pinch runner Rashad Eldridge. Soon after, pitcher Royce Ring threw a wild pitch to the backstop, allowing Eldridge to move to third. Needing outs, the Cards intentionally walked Ray Olmedo.
It gets worse. Instead of bringing in their closer Pete Parise, the Cards brought in Oneli Perez. Perez promptly threw the second wild pitch of the inning and Eldridge speeds home to score the winning run.
Such a great game of two good teams has to end in such an ugly way. Congrats to the Durham Bulls, tops of the Triple-A teams.
Angel Villalona Arrested
Angel Villalona, once the top prospect in the San Francisco Giants’ system, has been arrested in relation to a murder investigation. Although he has pleaded not-guilty, Villalona is the main suspect in the case and could face 20 years in jail.
Angel was signed in 2006 for a club record $2.1 million and was immediately tabbed as one of the best prospects in the system. MLB.com ranked him as the 48th overall prospect in all of baseball, even after a lackluster 2008 that saw him hit .263/.312/.435. This season he hit .267/.306/.397, further regressing as he moved up to High-A.
Things have gone downhill for him on the field and now things are going downhill for him in his personal life. Sure, youth typically means you do stupid things, but there’s limits. Yet we are seeing things like this every once in a while and the frequency seems to be increasing.
If I had $2.1 million reasons and potential to have many more, I’d be sleeping at the ballpark.
Milton Bradley Suspended
Chicago Cubs outfielder Milton Bradley has been suspended by the team for the rest of the season as they seem to be fed up with his attitude and mouth. ESPN quoted Cubs GM Jim Hendry as saying:
“Recently, it’s become intolerable to hear Milton talk about our great fans the way he has,” general manger Jim Hendry said. “We pride ourselves on having the greatest fans in baseball, so at this time we felt it was best to send him home for the rest of the season.”
Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune (hat tip to MLBTR) got quotes from several players on this and none of them were really in defense of Bradley. The closest was Aramis Ramirez’s quote:
“I’ve never seen that before,” Ramirez said. “I’ve never seen a GM suspend a player for something he’s been doing or something he said in the paper. But Jim (Hendry) has a point. if you don’t want to be here, send him home.”
All I can say to this is:
“Finally!”
It was only a matter of time until Bradley would crack even further than he already has and do something REALLY ugly.
The sad thing is that Bradley is stuck in Chicago. It will be very hard to dish off someone with his temperament and $10 million per season salary (for the next two seasons) to another team. Like Steve Phillips stated in the video clip linked above, he belongs in a smaller market. Milton’s best three OPS seasons were:
2008 – Rangers: .999
2007 – Athletics/Padres: .947
2003 – Indians: .923
That’s three OPS seasons you can’t just disregard. Maybe a smaller market team can talk the Cubs into trading Bradley while paying a significant portion of his salary. Just throwing out wild ideas here, but why not a trade of annoyances like Milton Bradely for Jose Guillen, with the Cubs kicking in a notable portion of Bradley’s salary?
Royals Sign Crow
The Kansas City Royals and righty Aaron Crow have come to terms on a three-year major league contract. He’ll earn $3 million and up to $4.5 million if he’s in the majors for a significant portion of the contract. This means I was wrong back in August when I said that he’d eventually sign for $3 million or less. Although many of the moves of the Royals recently have made me scratch my head, my wrong assumption isn’t so bad for the team.
For those of you who don’t about Crow, he was prized as probably the top righty in the 2008 draft class. The Washington Nationals picked him with their top pick, but he didn’t sign and played independent ball for the season. The Kansas City Royals weren’t afraid to take him in 2009 and, after significant discussions, signed him to a contract with a lower guaranteed amount than the Nationals’ rumored $3.5 million offer. He may earn more than what the Nationals offered him, but if he does, it means that Aaron’s performing well enough to be in the majors.
Crow has a mid-90s fastball with good sink and a hard slider that is a plus pitch at times. But he’ll likely have to improve his changeup to have success as a starter in the majors.
Even if he makes the full $4.5 million of his current contract, Crow has already lost out on the career earnings side. By sitting out a season, Aaron has pushed back his arbitration and free agency years one year.
