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It’s Just Speculation: Edwin Jackson back in Dodger Blue?
Tigers starting pitcher Edwin Jackson broke out this past season as he went 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA after coming to the team in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays. Many consider him and staff ace Justin Verlander a good 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. But the Detroit Tigers have been advertising lately that they need to trim some payroll. The vesting of Magglio Ordonez’ option for 2010 hadn’t helped things. Now Detroit GM Dave Dombrowski is considering parting out a few players off of his team to cut payroll. One of the first rumored players to be dealt has been Jackson. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi from FOXSports.com recently reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers have some interest in their former prospect.
Edwin Jackson was originally selected by the Dodgers with their 6th round pick in 2001. By 2004 he was ranked as the team’s top prospect and 4th overall in MLB by Baseball America. But the team quickly soured on Jackson after struggles in 2005 and 2006. They eventually traded him with Chuck Tiffany to Rays for relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter. Tampa edged him along and he honed his craft in the majors, throwing a mid-90s fastball and a high-80s slider.
In need of a long-term right field option, the Rays chose to trade Jackson to the Tigers after a decent 2008 season. Jackson had a good overall 2009 season, but he fell apart in the second half. Even with the second half downturn, Jackson will likely get a sizable raise through arbitration. With Jackson’s expected raise, Dombrowski may be interested in trading away the pitcher for a cheaper replacement with an eye to get the roster to a manageable level that he can add parts where he needs.
Although there are some that believe that the Tigers won’t be able to afford to sign both Jackson and Verlander long-term, it is entirely possible. As I mentioned in September, after 2010, the Tigers will not have Nate Robertson ($10 million), Jeremy Bonderman ($12.5 million), potentially Brandon Inge ($6.6 million) and Magglio Ordonez($18 million, $15 million vesting option for 2011 unlikely) on the payroll. That’s $37.1 million off the payroll before counting in arbitration raises and escalating contracts. Considering bothplayer’s current pay and what would be available, both extensions are possible.
But if the Dodgers or some other team has enough interest, I think Dombrowski will pull the trigger to trade him now. Edwin’s ugly second half and the possibility of getting some decent prospects back for him may be too enticing to walk away from. Could a package starting with James McDonald be enticing enough for Dombrowski hand Jackson over to the Dodgers? Are there any other prospects that could draw the interest of the Tigers more than McDonald?
Phillies Still Looking at Halladay?
Recently Scott Lauber over at Delaware Online discussed a few of the top Philadelphia Phillies prospects in his blog “Philled In”. In “A Look At The Prospects“, Scott provides some Baseball America quotes on prospects Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Travis D’Arnaud, and Trevor May, but it’s the quote from his own mouth….or fingers….that is most intriguing.
And with a new round of Roy Halladayrumors cropping up at the GM meetings in Chicago and likely sticking with us through the offseason (or at least until the Blue Jays do the inevitable and finally trade their ace), a good deal of attention will be paid to the Phillies’ prospects and which, if any, are worth trading.
Are the Phillies actually still interested in acquiring Roy Halladay? I know that playing in the World Series two years straight provides a decent financial windfall for a team, but can they afford last season of Halladay’s contract, let alone sign him long-term?
I think Ruben Amaro Jr. made a great deal for Cliff Lee, keeping his best prospects around in the organization, while nabbing a pitcher that they are more likely to sign long-term than Halladay. But if he were to trade for Halladay, the transaction would destroy the farm system. Frankly, even with all the good moves that he pulled in his first year at the helm, such a trade would likely overshadow the good moves rather quickly.
The Phillies have more pressing matters to tend to, like figuring out whether or not to stick with the volatile Brad Lidge at closer or not.
Six-Year Minor League Free Agents: 2009-NL
Each year Baseball America puts out a list of the 6-year minor league free agents. And each year I break down the list to players that are notable to me. I also have to comment on a few of the names I see. Here’s the NL players of note:
Arizona Diamondbacks (15)
RHP: Scott Dohmann (AAA), Seth Etherton (AAA)
3B: Ruben Gotay (AAA)
OF: Chris Roberson (AAA)
Etherton was a former first rounder for the Angels. Gotay had a very good season at Triple-A in 2009.
Atlanta Braves (12)
RHP: Bobby Brownlie (AA), Lance Niekro (R)
2B: Chris Burke (AAA), Antonio Perez (AA)
Brownlie and Burke were former first rounders that the Cubs and the Astros respectively had high hopes for. Niekro was drafted in the second round. He failed to hit in the majors, but has reinvented himself into a knuckleball pitcher like his father. But he hasn’t had his father’s success at it though.
Chicago Cubs (11)
LHP: Casey Fossum (AAA)
2B: Luis Rivas (AAA), Bobby Scales (AAA)
OF: John-Ford Griffin (AAA), Brad Snyder+ (AAA)
Fossum has bounced from club to club over the years. Rivas used to start for the Twins at second. Griffin was involved in the Ted Lilly/Jeff Weaver/Carlos Pena trade in 2002.
Cincinnati Reds (12)
RHP: Ben Davis+ (Hi A)
1B: Wes Bankston (AAA)
OF: Lew Ford (AAA)
Ben Davis was once a top catching prospect, now he’s reinvented himself as a pitcher. Ford was a scrapper outfielder for the Twins for a few seasons.
Colorado Rockies (15)
RHP: Ryan Speier (AAA)
LHP: Damian Moss (AAA)
C: Sal Fasano (AAA)
1B: Daniel Ortmeier (AAA)
2B: Mark Bellhorn (AAA)
OF: Ryan Harvey (AA), Paul McAnulty (AAA)
Moss won 12 games for the Braves in 2002. Sal’s been around FOREVER. Belhornhas seen time in the majors with a few ballclubs.
Florida Marlins (32)
RHP: Matt DeSalvo (AAA), Nate Field (AAA), Clay Hensley (AAA), Matt Peterson (AA)
Hensley won 11 games for the Padres in 2006. Peterson was once a key part of a Kris Benson trade.
Houston Astros (20)
RHP: Kenny Baugh (AA), Jose Capellan (AAA), Casey Daigle (AAA), Billy Sadler (AAA),
LHP: Mark McLemore (AAA), Andy Van Hekken (AAA)
2B: Drew Meyer (AA)
OF: Reggie Abercrombie (AAA)
Baugh and Van Hekken used to be Tiger prospects together. Capellan was once a closer propsect with a lightening arm. Abercrombie still has plenty of speed (26 SB last season).
Los Angeles Dodgers (34)
RHP: Travis Chick (AA), Tim Corcoran (AAA), J.D. Durbin (AAA), Scott Strickland (AAA)
LHP: Greg Miller (Hi A)
C: Danny Ardoin+ (AAA), J.D. Closser (AAA)
OF: Dee Brown (AAA)
Greg Miller was once the 8th ranked prospect in MLB, but injuries have gotten the best of him. Once a top prospect of the Royals, Brown is now just a nice piece to a Triple-A club at 31 years old (.905 OPS).
Milwaukee Brewers (14)
RHP: Matt Ginter (AAA), Wes Littleton (AA)
LHP: Chris Capuano++ (AAA)
SS: Michael Garciaparra (AA)
OF: Jon Knott (AAA)
Capuano hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2007 due to two Tommy John surgeries.
New York Mets (24)
3B: Mike Lamb (AAA)
OF: Chip Ambres (AAA), Jason Dubois (AAA)
Philadelphia Phillies (29)
RHP: Gary Majewski (AAA)
LHP:Gustavo Chacin (AAA)
1B: Andy Tracy (AAA)
2B: David Newhan (AAA)
3B: Terry Tiffee (AAA)
SS: J.J. Furmaniak (AAA), Jorge Velandia+ (AAA)
OF: Jason Ellison (AAA)
Chacinwon 25 major league games over a few seasons with the Blue Jays. Ellison keeps getting chances to be someone’s 5th outfielder, but he’s more of a farmhand type.
Pittsburgh Pirates (28)
RHP: Lincoln Holdzkom+ (AA), Jorge Julio (AAA)
LHP: Bobby Livingston (AAA)
1B: Tagg Bozied (AAA), Larry Broadway (AAA)
OF: Jamie Romak (Hi A)
Jorge Julio has bounced around to a few major league bullpens. Bozied was once a Padres prospect, now’s a decent Triple-A farmhand.
St. Louis Cardinals (7)
San Diego Padres (12)
RHP: Rocky Cherry (AAA), Jesse Orosco Jr. (R)
2B: Russ Adams (AAA), Edgar Gonzalez (AAA)
OF: Drew Macias (AAA), Val Pascucci (AAA)
Russ Adams was a first round pick of the Blue Jays. He saw some time in the majors, but never really hit well enough to stick around.
San Francisco Giants (23)
RHP: Matt Kinney (AAA), Shingo Takatsu (AAA)
1B: Josh Phelps (AAA)
3B: Dallas McPherson+ (AAA)
OF: Joe Borchard (AAA), Jackson Melian (AAA)
Phelps was once the Blue Jays’ top prospect. Borchard was the same for the White Sox. McPherson slugged 42 home runs in Triple-A in 2008, but he’s been injured this season.
Washington Nationals (22)
LHP: Justin Jones (AA), Horacio Ramirez (AAA)
1B: Brad Eldred (AAA), Daryle Ward (AAA)
3B: Kory Casto (AAA)
SS: Freddie Bynum (AA)
OF: Norris Hopper (AAA)
Daryle Ward has struggled each of the past couple seasons, his time as a decent bat off the bench for a major league team is essentially over.
Six-Year Minor League Free Agents: 2009-AL
Each year Baseball America puts out a list of the 6-year minor league free agents. And each year I break down the list to players that are notable to me. I also have to comment on a few of the names I see. Here’s the AL players of note:
Baltimore Orioles (22)
RHP: Scott Chiasson (AAA)
C: Robby Hammock (AAA), Steve Torrealba (AA)
1B: Eric Crozier (AA)
3B: Jolbert Cabrera (AAA)
OF: Ambiorix Concepcion (AAA), Victor Diaz (AAA), Dave Krynzel (AAA)
Victor Diaz showed some potential while with the Mets. Krynzel is a former first round pick of the Brewers.
Boston Red Sox (10)
RHP:Charlie Zink (AAA)
Knuckleballer still hanging on.
Chicago White Sox (10)
RHP: John Van Benschoten (AAA)
OF: Michael Restovich (AAA)
John was Pittsburgh’s top prospect for two years straight and in the top five over four years straight. But arm woes stopped his progress to success in the majors. Restovich has always dominated Triple-A, not so much the majors. He’s a great addition to your minor league lineup.
Cleveland Indians (14)
RHP: Jack Cassel (AAA), Blaine Neal+ (AAA), Kirk Saarloos (AAA)
2B: Josh Barfield (AAA)
Barfield hasn’t done much since his breakout 2006 season with the Padres.
Detroit Tigers (10)
RHP: Nate Bump (AAA), Ruddy Lugo (AAA)
LHP: Ryan Ketchner (AAA), Macay McBride++ (AAA)
OF: Brent Clevlen (AAA)
Although the Tigers were enticed by Clevlen’s power, his strikeouts in the minors were a sign of problems to come in the majors.
Kansas City Royals (18)
RHP: Luke Hudson (AAA), Chad Orvella (AA)
C: J.R. House (AAA)
1B: Ryan Shealy+ (AAA)
OF: Cory Aldridge (AAA), Shane Costa+ (AAA), Chris Lubanski+ (AAA), Tim Raines Jr. (AAA)
I honestly thought that Shealy would become a decent first baseman for the Royals after they received him from the Rockies. He even hit well during a stint with the big league club last season. Lubanski was the fifth overall pick in 2003.
Los Angeles Angels (15)
OF: Val Majewski (AA)
Minnesota Twins (8)
2B: Alejandro Machado+ (AA)
3B: Brian Buscher (AAA)
New York Yankees (17)
RHP: Humberto Sanchez (AAA)
3B: Eric Duncan (AAA), Cody Ransom (AAA)
OF: Freddy Guzman (AAA), John Rodriguez (AAA)
Sanchez was the #57 ranked prospect in MLB in 2007, but injuries after a trade to the Yankees derailed his career. Duncan was a first round pick that went late in the round due to signability concerns, he never panned out. Guzman flashed some of his speed on the basepaths for the Yankees this season.
Oakland Athletics (17)
RHP: Shawn Chacon (AAA), Dewon Day (AA), Jerome Williams (AAA)
LHP: Daniel Haigwood (Hi A), Justin Hampson+ (AAA)
OF: Chris Denorfia (AAA)
Chacon had a 6.29 ERA for Sacramento this season. Williams was the Giants’ top prospect for two years straight.
Seattle Mariners (32)
RHP: Chad Cordero+ (SS), Mike Koplove (AAA), Randy Messenger (AAA), Jeff Zimmerman+ (AAA)
1B: Brad Nelson (AAA)
SS: Alex Cintron (AAA)
OF: Bryan LaHair (AAA), Jerry Owens (AAA), Prentice Redman (AAA)
Cordero had an 11.74 ERA for Low-A Everett (in only 7.2 innings). Zimmerman used to close for the Rangers. Cintron had his best season with the Diamondbacks. Owens has blazing speed, but not enough of a bat to stay in the majors.
Tampa Bay Rays (18)
RHP: Winston Abreu (AAA), Jason Childers (AAA), Julio DePaula (AAA)
2B: Henry Mateo (AAA)
SS: Ray Olmedo (AAA)
Texas Rangers (19)
RHP: Josh Rupe (AAA), Mike Wood (AAA)
3B: Adam Fox (AAA)
3B: Travis Metcalf (AAA)
OF: Ryan Freel (AAA), Dustin Majewski (AA)
Wood was once a part of the trade that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros. Freel’s star has fallen fast.
Toronto Blue Jays (16)
LHP: Fabio Castro (AAA), Chris Michalak+ (Hi A)
OF: Buck Coats (AAA), Nick Gorneault (AA), Jason Lane (AAA)
After hitting 26 home runs in 2005, Lane was well on his way to be an integral part of the Astros offense. But he hasn’t hit since.
Let the Free Agent Frenzy Begin!
As of 12:00 Friday morning free agents had the right to sign with other teams, marking when the free agency frenzy really begins. Earlier this week we looked into TBO’s crystal ball to see where the free agents would potentially go. Now some of the bigger names in the baseball writing world have released their list of the top free agents:
ESPN’s Keith Law - Top 50 list.
Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman – Top 50 list.
AOL FanHouse’s Frankie Piliere - Top 50 list.
Yahoo’s Jeff Passan – Top 131 list?
Yes, Jeff Passan had a ranking list of 131 players. Of course, when you rank so many players there is definitely going to be more argument over who ranks where than your typical top 50 list. But Passan’s work is usually an interesting read. Of course I disagree with a few of his picks, even some higher ranked ones.
Jeff said that Aroldis Chapman’s #1 on potential, but #131 on potential for calamity. But wouldn’t that put him near #65? But it’s not clear-cut that Chapman’s a top-of-the-rotation starter.
I agree on his take on Rafael Soriano, but I think the market may be worried about his injury history.
Jermaine Dye is over-ranked. Overall, he put up good numbers last year, but take him out of U.S. Cellular Field and it’ll be downhill. There’s a number of players below Coco Crisp that will hit better than he will and there’s a number of light-hitting outfielders with good defense. Nick Johnson is over-ranked as he brings little power anymore to a power position and his body loves the disabled list.
John Smoltz is under-ranked, he still has plenty left in the tank. Kiko Calero should be further up on the list too, even with his injury issues. Chan Ho Park may be a great addition as a late-inning reliever, if he can let go of his desire to start.
But I wouldn’t rank Joe Crede even in the top 100. His back problems have killed his career and it’s unlikely to be revived.
Troy Glaus (as a first baseman) and Scott Eyre should have received more love.
It took guts to go beyond the typical 50, but Passan did a decent job.
Trade Bait: Heilman to D-Backs
Aaron Heilman’s star has fallen, but he’s still a useful member of a bullpen. At least that’s what the Arizona Diamondbacks think as they traded for him yesterday. The D-Backs sent minor leaguers Scott Maine and Ryne White to the Chicago Cubs.
The 31 year-old right-hander posted a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings last season. The ERA and the 1.41 WHIP aren’t too enticing for a starting pitcher, as he was originally groomed to be, or the setup man that he was in New York. But for a middle-reliever, it’s usable if low-priced.
Maine is a lefty with a low-90s fastball and a slurve. Although he’s posted decent ERAs in the minors, he hasn’t had a WHIP below 1.36 in his professional career. He’s been relatively hittable, but it has been the walks that have hurt his WHIP. He may be eventually be a serviceable lefty specialist in the majors, but the high WHIP will likely catch up to him in the majors.
White is a first baseman with a good eye at the plate. But he definitely doesn’t have a first-baseman’s power. He hit only six home runs and had a .356 slugging percentage in 491 plate appearances last season. The outfield could make him a decent infielder/outfielder substitution off the bench in time. But with OBP about the only offensive trait that the 23 year-old brings to the plate, it’s unlikely that he’ll see much time in the majors.
It’s a decent trade for both sides. Heilman is still relatively cheap and he has decent strikeout rates. The D-Backs traded two players that likely won’t see much time in the majors. The Cubs were likely going to non-tender Heilman anyway, so if they get anything out of the players they received, it’ll be a positive.
Adding More Punch to the Giants’ Offense
There’s no question that the San Francisco Giants need offensive help. The team ended the 2009 season 14th in the National League in slugging percentage and last in on-base percentage. This put them dead last in the National League in OPS with a .699 mark. But what can be done to improve this?
On November 13th Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors continued his great Offseason Outlook series with a review of the Giants. He figured that the Giants have $62 million committed before arbitration raises to Jonathan Sanchez, Brian Wilson, Brandon Medders, Ryan Garko and Tim Lincecum. Tim figured that these raises will push the payroll up to $80 million. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts (another site with a wealth of information), the Giants started the 2009 season with a payroll of $82,616,450. Unless Brian Sabean is given permission to raise payroll back to the $90 million mark they had for 2005-2007, Brian will have little to work with. Tim cited an article from Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News that stated that the Giants have the payroll room to afford “one free agent starting pitcher and one modestly-priced free agent hitter,” so the return to a $90 million payroll may be the case.
IF Brian Sabean has any sense (if you are familiar with this site, you’ll see that I’m not a big fan of his), he’ll make signing Tim Lincecum to a long-term contract his first priority this off-season. This may let him back load the contract to give Sabean a little more flexibility this winter.
The most obvious move would be letting Benji Molina walk and having prospect Buster Posey play regularly. I named Posey the Minor League Player of the Yearin an earlier post, noting that he is essentially ready for regular duty in the majors. He’s not exactly tearing up the AFL right now, but once he settles in behind the plate in Frisco, Posey should definitely carry an OPS above .699. The team can also expect minor rebounds in output from Aaron Rowand and Freddy Sanchez.
The main spots for improvement look to be the corners in the outfield and the infield. Ideally, the addition of a bat like Adam LaRoche would be nice. But payroll issues may limit the team to adding a more affordable slugger like Troy Glaus or Carlos Delgado who both need to re-establish their value after a ’09 season marred by injury.
The team may also look to move Pablo Sandoval over to first and upgrade the defense at third while nabbing another bat. The Giants were interested in Joe Crede last winter, but his continuous injuries might shy the team away from signing him. Sadly, I can see the veteran-minded Sabean signing Melvin Mora for third base.
As for the outfield, Grant over at McCovey Chronicleswrites about a couple rumors that are swirling around that the Giants may be after Jason Bay or Jermaine Dye for an offensive boost. He makes a good argument that the team shouldn’t sign either one. Personally, I feel that there’s more hope for Nate Schierholtz with his modest power potential and plus defense in right field than for Fred Lewis in left. With Lewis’ inefficient base stealing, the only real asset that he brings to the offense is a good on-base percentage and occasional ability to stretch doubles into triples. Adding a Johnny Damon might be nice, but with limited payroll flexibility the team might be inclined to try to sign Xavier Nady and spend their remaining funds on an infield corner. Nady could also be used in either corner of the outfield (unlike Damon), allowing the team to go with whichever outfielder emerges out of what they currently have.
There’s plenty of options out there, some better than others. It’ll be intriguing to see how Sabean reforms this offense.
Rookies to Look For: Scott Elbert
In 2009, Dodgers fans got their second look at one of their top pitching prospects, Scott Elbert. The lefty pitched in 19 MLB games this season, posting a 5.03 ERA, but striking out 21 in 19.2 innings. With a 3.20 BB/9 rate, the rookie still has some work to do on his control. Yet, there’s not denying his stuff.
Elbert throws a low-90s fastball that can occasionally touch the mid-90s. He has problems throwing for strikes though. Same for his hard-cutting curveball. It is his best pitch, when he’s able to throw it for strikes. Scott also has a change-up that he throws occasionally.
Although the Dodgers once had high hopes for Elbert as being an integral part of the upper 2/3 of their rotation, with his control issues he’s looking more and more like pitcher destined for the pen. But with the hook that Scott has, he has a chance to the dominant lefty out of the pen, shutting down left-handed hitters in critical situations.
As I typically do with the Rookies to Look For segment, I tried to find a YouTube clip of Elbert in action. However, there wasn’t much available, except one about his spit cup. It’s sad that a video like this gets 319 views. It’s even worse when some blogger doing a post on Scott Elbert actually links to it….
Reds Re-Sign Ramon
The Cincinnati Reds have done something baffling. They have re-signed free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez to a one-year contract with a vesting option for another year.
Let’s start with the Reds’ payroll concerns as mentioned on MLB Trade Rumors. That alone throws up a red flag when considering this deal, even though GM Walt Jocketty said otherwise to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. If you are considering trading away some of your higher-priced talent this winter, why would you re-sign an aging catcher for $3 million (essentially $4 million with the $1 million buyout on his last contract)?
Secondly, young catcher Ryan Hanigan hit .263/.361/.331 last season, a relatively comparable output than Hernandez’ .258/.336/.362 (some may say better). Sure, Ramon was playing with a bum knee this season, but does knee surgery mean that the problem is completely gone? Does the arthroscopic knee surgery that he had mean that he’ll be able to play 120+ games behind the plate? Highly doubtful, healthy knees are essential to a catcher and once you start messing around with the knee, it’s never the way it was when you were younger. Ryan’s likely to hit as well as Hernandez again next season, possibly posting a better slugging percentage if his physical development continues. He’ll also be better defensively than Hernandez.
Then there’s the vesting option for $3.25 million in 2011. Vesting options are decent for younger players, but they can get ugly for older players (see Magglio Ordonez even after he started hitting again, 2009).
Walt, you’ve made a few of good moves while GM in Cincy and St. Louis, but this is one of your uglier moves.
Where will the Top Free Agents Go? – 2009-2010
About every baseball writer tends to do a piece each year to pick where at least the top few free agents will go. To follow the crowd, TBO will conduct this shot-in-the-dark as well. Feel free to pick some of your own, but you might have a better chance at the lotto.
Hitters
Bengie Molina – Mets. The Mets aren’t truly settled at catcher and Molina gives the team some additional offense, which it needs.
Gregg Zaun – Giants. This is a tough one as I can definitely see the Rays keeping Zaun around at the relatively cheap $2 million option they hold on him. But Giants GM Brian Sabean likes aging players and Zaun helped Matt Wieters settle into Baltimore, he could help another standout catching prospect Buster Posey in San Francisco.
Adam LaRoche – Giants. The Braves are more interested in a righ-handed bat and may not be interested in keeping LaRoche long-term with Freddie Freeman on the way. Although LaRoche may be a little young for Sabean’s taste, he’ll provide some offense at the relative black hole that has been first base over the past few seasons.
Russell Branyan – Mariners. They are both interested in Branyan sticking around. It’s just how long Jack wants to commit to keeping Branyan around that seems like the issue.
Carlos Delgado – Mets. Minaya is interested in bringing Delgado back. But the aging Delgado might have to take a lesser role with left field filled (see Halladay) and the Mets wanting to play Dan Murphy more.
Troy Glaus - Rangers. The Rangers are looking for a right-handed bat. Troy Glaus will provide the team with a DH and a stop-gap at first base if Chris Davis doesn’t work out, while the wait for Justin Smoak‘s arrival.
Chone Figgins – Angels. The Angels would like to keep both Figgins and John Lackey, but they can probably only afford Figgins. I believe there is some concern on their part regarding Lackey’s health anyway.
Orlando Hudson – Nationals. The Nationals have expressed interest in him in the past. He’d be good for their middle infield defense and his .357 OBP would be better for the second spot in the order than Cristian Guzman’s .306.
Placido Polanco – Twins. Alexi Casilla hasn’t impressed and Gardenhire has campaigned for Cabrera to be re-signed for second base. But Cabrera will likely want to stay at short, signing elsewhere. The team might spend some money in their inaugural season in the new stadium to get Polanco’s defense and on-base ability. If the Mets are able to dump Luis Castillo, they might go after Hudson and Nationals would in-turn go after Polanco, changing the entire situation.
Felipe Lopez – Dodgers. Lopez has been pretty good since he’s gotten out of Washington. Hudson wasn’t a fit with Torre’s Dodgers and Belliard isn’t that great to watch defensively. Felipe may find a home in Dodgertown.
Marco Scutaro – Red Sox. Although the Jays would like to get him back, I believe that the Red Sox will spend the money they save by signing Bay over Holliday to grab Scutaro.
Orlando Cabrera – Blue Jays. The Blue Jays will likely not be able to meet Scutaro’s salary demands and will instead go with Cabrera at short. The Twins want him back, but I doubt Cabrera will want to move to second base.
Miguel Tejada – Astros. Keeping Tejada around for another year would give the Astros some insurance in case prospect Tommy Manzella doesn’t pan out. He should be better defensively with a regular starting job at third as well. This would give prospect Chris Johnson more development time in the minors too.
Juan Uribe – Mariners. Uribe came out the depths of ineffectiveness to play relatively well last season. He may be a short-term fit for the Mariners.
Adrian Beltre – Braves. This is where the real craziness starts to factor. Chipper Jones’ defense was ugly this season, a move back to left field or first base may let him concentrate more on hitting. They are also craving a right-handed power bat.
Mark DeRosa – Phillies. I liked the MLBTR pick on this one. Rumors from other sources also point this way. It seems like a good fit.
Mike Cameron – Cubs. The Cubbies are looking to deal away Milton Bradley. If they are able to dump Bradley, they may move Kosuke Fukudome back to right and give Cameron center. He may also go cross-town to the White Sox, moving Alex Rios back to right field.
Matt Holliday – Mets. The Cardinals need to keep Holliday around, but GM John Mozeliak doesn’t seem to mortgage the future of the team to pay Scott Boras’ demands. The Mets will likely step in with a major offer and sway Holliday away from St. Louis.
Jason Bay – Red Sox. Bay’s proven that he can hit in Boston. Although it may be tempting to go after Holliday, the Sox will stick with Bay and look into finding a left-handed first-baseman with the extra money.
Johnny Damon – Yankees. Damon still has decent speed on the base paths. His power numbers have also gone up in New York. He’s a decent fit to stay with the Yankees as they want more flexibility in the DH spot.
Vladimir Guerrero – White Sox. White Sox could go with Vlad as a DH and occasional right fielder, especially if they don’t sign Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.
Marlon Byrd – Rangers. Although the Cubs have been rumored to be interested in Byrd, I believe that they’ll go after Cameron instead. The Rangers are rumored to be wanting to move Josh Hamilton to a corner, letting Byrd play full-time in center.
Xavier Nady – Cardinals. After loosing out on Holliday, the Cardinals will likely sign the cheaper Nady. Nady will need to recoup some value after sitting out the season due to Tommy John surgery. He’ll make Mozeliak look good with a decent rebound season.
Rick Ankiel – Pirates. The Pirates have been rumored to have interest in Ankiel for some time. Although Ankiel was the feel good story of the Cardinals a year ago, it doesn’t seem like they care if he goes elsewhere.
Jermaine Dye – Giants. GM Brian Sabean loves veteran players. The bad side is that he’s expecting better results from a player that is obviously on the decline.
Coco Crisp – Royals. The Royals still need his defense in center and have been open to re-signing him.
Hideki Matsui – Mariners. I discussed this possibility in a previous posting. Since that posting I’ve read that scouts don’t believe he can play left field anymore. With the Griffey re-signing, that gap is filled. Matsui would still be a fit at first base/DH though.
Jim Thome – Athletics. Billy Bean loves big, lumbering, power-hitters with good on-base skills. Thome is a perfect fit and could come relatively cheap.
Pitchers
John Lackey – Brewers. Yes, I am that crazy. Doug Melvin needs an ace to take pressure off of Yovanni Gallardo. Doug’s intent on improving the rotation this off-season. He saved money by not re-signing Mike Cameron, he’s not paying J.J. Hardy anymore, and the team made a healthy deal to C.C. Sabathia last year to stay. If the New York teams get serious, things may change, but I can see Doug going all-out.
Joel Pineiro – Mets. He won’t fare as well without Dave Duncan, but Joel will go where the money is and the Mets are looking for additional pitching behind Santana. If they don’t get Lackey, the Mets will go after Pineiro.
Randy Wolf – Mets. The Mets need to solidify their rotation and they may sign two veteran starters to do it. I’m not too big on Randy Wolf outside of Chavez Ravine, but the Mets may sign him anyway.
Andy Pettitte – Yankees. He’s a Yankee. If he continues his career, he’ll be in a Yankee uniform.
Jarrod Washburn – Mariners. The Mariners need some experience in the rotation and Washburn could go back to the them if Lackey signs with the Brew Crew. If Lackey doesn’t I can see Washburn in Milwaukee.
Jon Garland - Dodgers. Garland had a 2.72 ERA for the Dodgers after the trade (although his peripheral stats weren’t as good). They may be interested in keeping him around for the back of the rotation.
Carl Pavano – Twins. The Twins have shown interest in keeping the veteran around for more after they traded for him last season.
Erik Bedard – Cardinals. Dave Duncan is great at remaking pitchers into great starters. He’s brought Chris Carpenter back from major surgery to become a front-line starter twice, he’ll do the same with Bedard.
Jason Marquis – Mets. He’s friends with Jeff Francoeur and there’s been rumors about his desire to play there.
Rich Harden – Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks may be enticed by Harden’s nice K/9. His injuries may eventually force him to relief though where he could be a dominant presence at the back end.
Doug Davis – Brewers. Signing both Lackey and Doug Davis would admittedly be a stretch. But if they aren’t able to grab Lackey, I believe that Washburn and Davis would be towards the top of their list.
John Smoltz – Cardinals. Smoltz liked his time in St. Louis and it would be cheaper than re-signing Joel Piniero.
Justin Duchscherer – A’s. Justin will sign a one year with the Athletics to re-establish his value to get a larger contract after the 2010 season.
Ben Sheets – Rangers. Although the Brewers may like to have him back, they may be less inclined to sign him due to his injury history with them. Although the Rangers had some decent performance from Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter, they need some veteran leadership in the rotation beyond Kevin Millwood.
Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox. Boston’s been in on Chapman the entire time and they have the ability to spend money on Chapman and hide him in the minors as he develops.
Brad Penny – Giants. Penny performed relatively well in Frisco and they’ve been interested in bringing him back.
Jose Valverde – Yankees. By the end of the post-season, Yankees fans were biting their nails every time Girardi went to the pen (other than for Rivera). They are telling a few of their current bullpen regulars to prepare as they would be starting next season. The Yankees may be preparing to improve their pen. Although Valverde wants to close, a big paycheck from the Yankees could make him into a dominant setup man in front of Rivera.
Mike Gonzalez – Phillies. If Brad Lidge rebounds, Gonzalez will be a shut-down lefty setup man for the Phillies pen. If he doesn’t, Gonzalez can step into the closer spot with ease.
Rafael Soriano – Angels. Although Brian Fuentes racked up the saves, the team may have lost confidence in him. Soriano has electric stuff to step into the closer role if Fuentes falters again.
Billy Wagner – Braves. With Gonzalez and Soriano leaving via free agency, the Braves may be interested in a deal with Billy Wagner.
Fernando Rodney – Orioles. With the plethora of decent closer options on the market, Rodney may become relatively affordable to a team like the Baltimore Orioles.
