Subcribe to this Feed
Happy New Year!!!
Happy New Year!!!
Every new year is a time to reflect and a time for improvement. Is there an aspect of The Baseball Opinion you’d like to see more of? A new category of articles? In the next year I will attempt to do more “Over a Beer and Peanuts” articles and moree “Over Spilled Milk” writings. Feel free to use the “Contact” page above to send me any requests.
Thank you and here’s wishing that your team will have more Tim Lincecum-like drafting and less Darren Driefort free agent deals in the new year!
Mets Take a Dip in Bay
No, I don’t mean that Jason Bay is a “Dip”, I was just looking for some cheesy eye-catching line and this all that came to mind. The New York Mets certainly won’t see much of a “dip” in their payroll as they hand free agent outfielder Jason Bay a four-year, $66 million agreement with a vesting option for 2014 at $14 million. Bay will play “defense” in left field while adding punch to the middle of the Mets’ lineup that has been missing since Carlos Delgado’s regression.
Bay’s bat will be a welcome addition to the Mets’ lineup, but don’t expect the same numbers you saw in Fenway Park last season. Citi Field is larger and the Mets’ lineup isn’t as stacked as Boston’s, providing less protection to the slugger.
Sure, many critics are going to complain about Bay’s poor defense in left field, a noteworthy aspect of his game. But will he be much worse than the circus that was Daniel Murphy in left field last season? Statically, will he be worse than Gary Sheffield, the player that had the most innings in left field for the Mets last season (-35.4 UZR/150).
The headline would’ve been a whole lot easier if he signed somewhere like Tampa BAY.
DeRo in Frisco
San Francisco Giants Brian Sabean took dip into the free agent pool this off-season to add some offense to his sluggish lineup. Sabean, who has a love affair with aging veteran players, signed Mark DeRosa (35 in February) to a two-year contract. He’ll spend much of his time at third base, but will also likely play around the field in a utility role as well.
Interestingly, DeRosa posted a lower UZR/150 at third base last season (-8.7) than incumbent third baseman Pablo Sandoval (-6.4). But DeRosa also posted the worst range factor of his career at that position last season and his Error Runs Above Average have declined each of the past couple seasons. If the team re-signs Juan Uribe, as rumored, he may become a late-inning defensive substitution at the hot corner if he isn’t playing another position during the game. In DeRosa and Uribe, the Giants would have a two-headed utility monster. Both players could see significant time with the hot corner open with Sandoval’s probable move to first base, Freddy Sanchez’ recent injury history, and question marks in the outfield corners.
There has been rumors that the Giants will still chase after first baseman Adam LaRoche. This would keep Sandoval at third and likely put DeRosa in left or right field. It would be interesting where the team put him then. John Bowker and Fred Lewis had mediocre production, at best, in left and Nate Schierholtz wasn’t exactly a hot hitter in right either. But I’m more for the team slotting him in as a left fielder as I believe Schierholtz has a little more upside than Lewis and definitely Bowker. DeRosa also has put up historically good defensive statistics in the corner outfield positions (albeit in small sample sizes).
Then again, I wouldn’t been too surprised to see Sabean sign 38-year-old Carlos Delgado.
Rookies to Look For: Bud Norris
With the Houston Astros looking for ways to slash payroll, they have started to look towards their meager farm system for some help. Of the few MLB ready prospects they have, Bud Morris is possibly one of the more intriguing options.
Drafted in the sixth round in 2006, Norris has pitched relatively well in the minors. This past season he posted a 2.63 ERA in 120 innings, giving up 104 hits while striking out 112. The Astros called him up after that performance and he pitched to a 6-3 record with a 4.53 ERA in 55.2 innings.
Norris’ arsenal includes a riding mid-90s fastball, a good slider, and a change-up that is a work in progress. Due to an injury history, fatigue issues, command problems and his lack of mastery of the change, there’s the thought that Norris’ long term role will be in the bullpen. He’d thrive in that environment with the two good pitches he has. But with the lack of starting pitching the team has, Norris may spend at least the 2010 season in the rotation.
Ed Wade could’ve taken the $15 million he spent on Brandon Lyon and used it on a starter. Norris could be better than Lyon by 2011 if he’s switched to the pen soon.
Quirky Voting
We all know that Joe Mauer won the AL MVP and Albert Pujols won NL MVP. But do many people look at how all the votes were cast? There were some quirky ballots placed this year, much like other years.
The AL had a trio of more believable players for the 10th spot at the bottom of their voting list. Placido Polanco, Felix Hernandez, and Ian Kinsler. Polanco decent offense and good defense helped the Tigers to a near-miss on a playoff birth, after a horrible 2008. Felix actually should’ve been ranked higher than Polanco as he was clearly dominant on a mediocre team. Kinsler put up good all-around numbers on the season….very good for a second baseman.
Miguel Cabrera received three 10th place votes, a possible fall-out from his domestic issues by some voters. I was actually somewhat surprised that Michael Young actually came out ahead of Zach Greinke and others in the voting.
The National League’s lowest three vote-getters were Brad Hawpe, Chris Coghlan, and Jeremy Affeldt. None of them received votes for higher than 10th place, so their placement is more believable than someone voting for Affeldt to be third in the MVP race. Hawpe had a decent season for a post-season team, but his .903 OPS could be overshadowed by his ugly defense in right field. Coghlan had a great breakout rookie season, but his Marlins weren’t in the playoff hunt that late and he didn’t present the stolen bases or the home runs that usually stand out for a top-10 MVP candidate. Affeldt had a great season, no doubt about it. He was tops in the NL in holds with 33, six more than the next closest. But is he the 10th most valuable player in the NL?
But those three are relatively believable votes for 10th place, especially from writers in their own city. What about elsewhere on the ballot? What three nutcases voted for Prince Fielder as the 10th overall? Someone even voted for Chase Utley in the 10th spot as well.
Was that writer watching him at all in the post-season?!
Trade Bait: Morrow in Toronto
Jack Zdurincik has gotten a bit trade-happy lately. Not only did he trade for Jack Wilson during the season, he’s also been involved in the Big Trade that netted him Cliff Lee, and also traded for Milton Bradley. But he hasn’t stopped just yet, Jack has traded promising young pitcher Brandon Morrow to the Toronto Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League and outfield prospect Johermyn Chavez.
Morrow it a talented righty that has shown occasional indications as to why he was drafted fifth overall in 2006. He has a pretty good fastball, as explained by Jeff at Lookout Landing. But he needs to have better command of his curveball and change-up if he’s going to succeed as a starter as he wants to be. The command issues, combined with numerous injuries over his short career, have caused Morrow to spend a significant amount of time in the bullpen. In order to protect him from further injury, it may be best that Morrow stays in the pen where he could flourish as a setup man or even closer.
League, like Morrow, has an impressive fastball that touches the mid-90s regularly. But he’s been destined for the pen all along. Along with a career K/9 rate of 6.9, League has also managed an impressive 62% ground ball rate in the majors. But his results (ERA-wise) haven’t been that impressive so far. Getting off the turf in Toronto and into the expanses of Safeco may turn him into a solid presence at towards the back end of the Mariners’ bullpen.
Chavez is a young outfielder who hit.283 with 21 HR and 89 RBI in for Class A Lansing last season. Marc Hulet over at FanGraphs has a good article about the prospect the Mariners received in the deal.
I’m not a big fan of this trade from either side of the deal. The Mariners have “lost” Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva, and now Morrow from the rotation. They have made a big addition in Cliff Lee, but there is little behind Felix Hernandez and Lee. Chavez is interesting though, someone to keep an eye on as he develops.
The Blue Jays have another starting pitcher, which they are overloaded with as Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch, and Shaun Marcum all edge their way back. The depth chart on MLB.comhas eight starters right now (not including Marcum). If they do move him to the pen for good, he could emerge as a closer candidate eventually. Maybe GM Alex Anthopoulos is just stockpiling arms in an attempt to lure a trade for a nearly ready third baseman.
Or maybe he’s gather enough arms to offer four decent starting pitchers to any team that will take Vernon Wells and half his contract off the Jays’ hands.
Trade Bait: Vazquez back to the Yankees
It seems like Javier Vazquez has been on the trading block since he was originally traded for last winter. But the Atlanta Braves finally pulled the trigger on a trade that sent him to New York yesterday. In exchange for Vazquez and lefty Boone Logan, the Braves will receive outfielder Melky Cabrera and prospects Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizcaino.
Vazquez went 15-10 last season on an Atlanta Braves team who’s offense struggled mightily in the first half of the season. He had nine quality starts last season that he did not recieve wins for (mostly in the first half). Although every pitcher will go through tough luck, 9 out of 32 is a little harsh. In fact, five of those he gave up less than three earned runs (all in the first half). On a better offensive team, Vazquez may have ranked a little higher than 4th in the NL Cy Young race last season.
Boone Logan was acquired when the Braves traded for Vazquez last winter. He’s been hittable in limited action with the Braves. Boone will likely take over Phil Coke’s spot in the bullpen after Coke was traded to the Tigers.
Although much of the discussion has been around Melky Cabrera heading to Atlanta in return, the biggest prize is young righty Arodys Vizaino. The young righty has a mid-90s fastball that could at a couple mph as he fills out. He also has a plus curveball and a change-up in the works. In 10 starts at Low-A this past season, Vizcaino had a 2.13 ERA with 52 strikeouts in 42.2 innings. He also only gave up 34 hits.
Melky Cabrera has been rumored to go to Atlanta in a few different trade scenarios over the past couple years. Now he’s actually included in one. Although Melky has played above his salary commitment in the past, he is barely above a fourth outfielder. He still has something to prove to me that he’s worth a starting spot on a contending team.
The final player that the Braves receive is Mike Dunn. No he doesn’t have prodigeous home run power like Adam (no relation), but he does have notable strikeout totals. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season Dunn struck out 99 hitters in 73.1 innings. He possesses a fastball that can touch 97mph and a hard slider, a great combination for a lefty reliever. Dunn’s biggest knock though is his lack of control (5.4 BB/9 in Double-A and 6.3 in Triple-A).
The Braves will receive a rumored $500,000 in cash as well.
This is of course a mainly salary dump trade for the Braves as they will clear about $9 million in payroll, freeing them up to get a run-producing power bat. Frank Wren says they are in the running for such a power bat, but hasn’t said who. Who will that be? My vote has been for Adrian Beltre since the off-season started. Chipper Jones’ defense at third has deteriorated to the point that it may be best for him to move to first base, taking some of the strain off his body. Beltre is a right-handed power bat, much like they’ve been looking for.
My initial reaction to the trade was that the Braves got taken. They received a near-fourth outfielder, a lefty reliever with major control problems, and a starting prospect with potential, but he’s in Low-A ball. It’s not that promising of a return. But Vizcaino has more potential than any of the players in the Cliff Lee trade to Seattle. So is this a decent trade? No, Vizcaino has a long ways to go to make this a decent trade for the Braves.
As for the Yankees, Cashman made another shrewd move that makes the Yankees even tougher to beat next season as they go for the repeat of their 2009 title. If you have $200 million to spend a season, why not go after Vazquez? This move, combined with the earlier Granderson trade, definitely makes them the team to beat.
Trade Bait: Lowell a Ranger
12/21/09: The Lowell trade to the Rangers has been called off due to his need for surgery. Mike will have to get his a torn radial collateral ligament on the right thumb fixed before returning to the field. Rob Bradford of WEEI.com has more on Lowell’s situation. Texas will look elsewhere for a right-handed power bat.
Red Sox fans may look back on this as their best chance to nab Ramirez before he broke out for the Rangers (or some other team).
12/11/09: The Boston Red Sox haven’t signed a left fielder yet, but they made a major move at the Winter Meetings anyway. After grabbing reliever Ramon Ramirez from the Rays and Boof Bonser from the Twins, GM Theo Epstein cleared some space by trading the aging Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers yesterday. He sent Lowell and $9 million to the Rangers in exchange for slugging catcher Maximilano Ramirez.
At the $3 million that they will have to pay out of their own pockets on Lowell’s salary, he’s a relatively cheap source of offense at third, first, or DH. His age and recent injuries have diminished his value at the hot corner, but Lowell should still be a decent option at first until Justin Smoak comes along, or DH while they let Chris Davis hit near the Mendoza Line.
For a relatively cheap offensive addition, the Rangers paid dearly. Max Ramirez has destroyed minor league pitching in the past. But in 2009 a wrist injury zapped him of the offensive numbers that he received acclaim for. The Red Sox are hoping that’s behind him now and he’ll return to full health. But returning to full health won’t fix his defense. Ramirez has always been dogged for his lackluster defense.
This is the third time he’s been traded for an aging player with not too much left in the tank. First he was sent to Cleveland by the Atlanta Braves in exchange for closer Bob Wickman. The Indians then flipped him to the Rangers for Kenny Lofton.
Immediately, there’s been speculation that the Red Sox are hot after Adrian Beltre. Signing the still relatively young Beltre would add some offense and vastly improve the defense at third for the Sox. But recent injury issues still have to provide some worry to Red Sox fans.
With Big Pappi entering the last season of his contract, could the Red Sox be preparing to replace him with the defensively hindered Max? We’ll see.
Nationals Sign Jason Marquis
The Washington Nationals made another move to improve their pitching staff this off-season by signing Jason Marquis to a two-year contract yesterday. Marquis will make $15 million over two years while in Washington.
The contract is for a little more than what he is worth, but the Nationals likely had to pay a premium to draw Marquis to the struggling Nationals. He’ll eat innings for the Nationals and keep them in more games than Garrett Mock, Shairon Martis or Livan Hernandez did in 2009.
But don’t expect Marquis to repeat his 2009 stats.
Notes on Misc. Signings – 12/21/09
There have been a number of smaller signings that I haven’t had the ability to give their proper attention to in a single post, so I am going to look back at the past couple weeks and provide an opinion on each.
New York Yankees re-signed Andy Pettitte – Why don’t the Yankees just give him the Tim Wakefield contract? He’s not signing elsewhere, so he should come at more of a discount and they can just make it a continual thing like Wakefield.
Houston Astros signed Pedro Feliz – Reason number 3,453 why I struggle with the concept of why Ed Wade is still a Major League General Manager.
Kansas City Royals signed Jason Kendall- Dayton Moore isn’t that far behind from Wade on many of his moves, but I like this better than Feliz. I just don’t like the price. Is he actually worth as much as Ivan Rodriguez? Still, he’s an improvement defensively over Buck and an improvement over Olivo on patience at the plate.
Houston Astros signed Brandon Lyon- SO UGLY that I didn’t even want to comment on it when the contract was signed. His peripheral stats tell the tale, Minute Maid will not be as kind to him as Comerica was.
Washington Nationals re-signed Scott Olsen – The Nationals need cheap pitching and Olsen needs a make-good contract. Good signing for both sides.
Milwaukee Brewers signed Randy Wolf- They need a solid starter behind Yovanni Gallardo, but Wolf is not it. He’s overpaid for work that he did in San Diego and Los Angeles, two very pitcher friendly ballparks.
Milwaukee Brewers re-signed Craig Counsell – Native of the area performed well for the Brewers last year in the type of role that he should be in. A good signing.
Kansas City Royals signed Philip Humber – Maybe the Royals can get something out of this former prospect….doubtful.
Philadelphia Phillies signed Ross Gload- Nice addition to the bench for the Phillies.
Milwaukee Brewers signed LaTroy Hawkins – $3.25 million isn’t too bad for a veteran towards the back end of your bullpen. I like this signing more than others, even though I’ve never been that high on Hawkins.
Toronto Blue Jays signed John Buck – Buck does have some power and hit for about the same average as many of the other regular catchers in the Majors, so he’s not the offensive hole that many say he is. But it’s his defense that makes you cringe at times.
Cincinnati Reds signed Laynce Nix – Was once the top power hitter in the Reds outfield last season. He’ll get another chance even though he doesn’t hit for much average.
L.A. Dodgers signed Jamey Carroll – Decent utility man signing.
Baltimore Orioles signed Mike Gonzalez- Many are clamoring that the Orioles are still far from contending and that this was unnecessary. But there’s a lot of young pitching on that club and coming up through the minors, they need a stable presence at closer to protect their psyche. Gonzalez was also relatively cheap due to the stockpile of closers on the free agent market.
