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Rainy Day Reading: Bad Contract White Elephant
Dave Cameron’s work on FanGraphs is always a good read. A couple months ago I came across yet another good article from him called, “Bad Contract White Elephant“. In it, he gives a light-hearted suggestion for a bad contract version of the White Elephant gift exchange:
…..the 28 teams that don’t qualify for the World Series send their General Manager to a large conference room, not unlike what the NFL uses for the draft. Each GM brings one contract, places it in a pile, and prepares for Bad Contract White Elephant.
Read the entire article if you have a chance. It’s a funny concept but one that makes you really think….what would’ve the 28 teams not involved in the World Series brought to the table? Here’s some suggestions:
Red Sox – Mike Lowell, David Ortiz – Lowell’s defense has declined and he’s injured.
Rays – Pat Burrell
Blue Jays – Vernon Wells….Duh
Baltimore – Ty Wigginton
Twins – Matt Guerrier – Just arbitration eligible, but they don’t really have a bad contract.
Tigers – Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, etc. – There’s a number of bad contracts, but Willis’ is the worst.
White Sox – Scott Linebrink or Paul Konerko – Neither is awfully bad.
Indians – Travis Hafner, Kerry Wood, Fausto Carmona- Has to be Hafner.
Royals – Jose Guillen
Angels – Gary Mathews Jr.’s remaining salary - Silly Mets took the player and some of his salary already.
Rangers – Michael Young
Mariners – Milton Bradley
Athletics – Eric Chavez
Marlins – Logan Kensing – How can you cut and slash from a team without much for high played players?
Braves – Derek Lowe
Mets – Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo – Oliver Perez, hands down.
Nationals – Christian Guzman
Cardinals – Kyle Lohse
Cubs – Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Silva – Long, expensive contract or batting practice?
Brewers – Jeff Suppan
Reds – Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo – Similar contracts, similar inconsistent pitching.
Astros – Carlos Lee
Pirates – Paul Maholm – Not that bad of a contract, but most of their bad contracts are gone.
Dodgers – Manny Ramirez? – His production has dropped, he’s not worth ~$20 million anymore.
Rockies – Todd Helton
Giants – Barry Zito
Padres – Chris Young – Only because they are cost-cutting and he’s injured too much.
Diamondbacks – Chris Young – Eric Byrnes was DFA’d, so it’s Young, who they’re stuck with for a while.
A few teams don’t have much for bad contracts. I had to pick arbitration eligible players on the Twins and the Marlins that have a chance to be non-tendered. There’s a few teams that you may actually have to think about it a little.
Ben Sheets’ Signing a Calculated Move?
Billy Beane is starting to go wild with this pitching and defense scheme he has this off-season. His recent signing of Coco Crisp setup an outfield of Rajai Davis, Coco, and Ryan Sweeney, three plus defenders. He’s also improved the team’s defense at the hot corner with Kevin Kouzmanoff. With all these moves the Athletics’ pitching staff must be ecstatic.
Now Billy Beane has put the crowning touches on his off-season moves with the signing of Ben Sheets. Ben, sat out all of last season with an elbow injury, impressed numerous scouts in a recent throwing session. It was enough to start a bidding war that ended up with Sheets signing a one-year $10 million contract.
If sheets really is as good as he looked to scouts, the A’s will have a formidable staff. Sheets will join re-sign Justin Duchscherer and the rest of the young, but talented Athletics rotation could have a good season ahead of them.
| ERA | WHIP | ||
| Ben Sheets | 3.09 | 1.15 | (2008) |
| Justin Duchscherer | 2.54 | 1.00 | (2008) |
| Brett Anderson | 3.48 | 1.19 | (After 2009 All-Star Break) |
| Dallas Braden | 3.89 | 1.36 | |
| Trevor Cahill | 4.63 | 1.44 |
Of course there’s a lot of hope in these figures. Hope that Sheets and Duchscherer can return to their 2008 form and hope that Anderson continues to develop into a star pitcher. But it is possible, especially considering the improved defense and the fact that Anderson, Braden, and Cahill are becoming more experienced.
But was this move really about the 2010 season? Sure the defense and pitching look decent, but the offense may be nearly as bad as last season. With the two injury recovery signings being one-year contracts, Beane may be setting up the two pitchers as trade bait. Looking closer at it, they are two pitchers that had very good 2008 seasons, will pitch in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, and will have a plus defense behind them. They are set up to excel and be traded at a premium for pieces that should help the team in the long-term.
You never know, the next Dan Haren could come out of the trade of one of these two.
Rookies to Look For: David Freese
With all the talk about Matt Holliday‘s long term deal and how the Cardinals have little money left to fill the remaining holes in the roster, I felt it was appropriate to discuss in depth one of the spots the team is hoping that they won’t have to find a veteran bat to fill. Third base has been a tough spot for the Cardinals recently as Scott Rolen was shipped to Toronto (and then Cincy), Troy Glaus went down with an injury, and Mark DeRosa played with an injury after he was traded to the team last summer.
But all of those players are now off the roster and the team doesn’t have the financial room to chase a high-dollar free agent to fill the spot (Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins are gone anyway). But they do have a prospect waiting in the wings to take over the hot corner, David Freese.
Freese was drafted in the ninth round by the San Diego Padres. A first baseman in college, the Padres shifted him to third, thinking that he’d be at least average at the position. Freese hit well initially:
2006: Low-A – .379/.465/.776 in 71 PA
2006: A – .299/.371/.510 in 230 PA
2007: High-A – .302/.400/.489 in 592 PA
Although Freese graduated from high school in Wildwood, MO, in St. Louis County, it was his hitting that probably drew the interest of the Cardinals and they traded Jim Edmonds for him in December of 2007. He came over and played well for the Cardinals as well. Freese hit .306 with 26 homers and 91 RBIs at Triple-A in 2008, drawing many to believe that he’d take over for the injured Glaus out of Spring Training. But an ankle injury kept him from completing that task.
It’s of course his hitting skills that have drawn the interest of Cardinals fans. Although his strikeouts have risen to the point that they are a concern, Freese has shown that he can hit for a decent average and power. He’s not going to be a star, but .275 with 20-25 home runs may be his average season if he can control the strikeouts.
Defensively, he’s still a work in progress. He’ll be an improvement over Glaus, but he probably won’t ever obtain a Gold Glove. His arm is decent, hands are average, but his range is lacking. Freese still needs work on his overall technique as well.
Although David Freese won’t be a star, he should be a decent third baseman. He’s cheap too Cardinals fans.
Over Spilled Milk: Russ Ortiz Trade of 2002
On Wednesday I noticed that the San Francisco Giants traded Merkin Valdéz to the Toronto Blue Jays after designating him for assignment last week to make room for Aubrey Huff. That, in itself, is enough to talk about. But it reminded me of how the Giants got Valdéz in the first place.
In 2002 Russ Ortiz of the San Francisco Giants had just come off of a 14-10 season, posting a 3.61 ERA. He pitched so well in fact that the Atlanta Braves, who were in search of a solid young starter after Tom Glavine left for New York and Kevin Millwood was traded to Philadelphia, traded for him to help fill out the rotation. On December 17th the Braves sent pitchers Damian Moss and Valdéz to the Giants for the vaunted starter.
It proved to be the right move for Jon Schuerholz as Ortiz won 21 games in his first season in a Braves uniform while posting a good, but not great, 3.81 ERA. In 2004 Oritz would go 15-9 with a 4.19 ERA. See the trend here?
The Atlanta Braves let him test free agency after the 2004 season, allowing Ortiz to sign a four-year $33 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks. But Ortiz went downhill from there. Russ spent two seasons with the Diamondbacks where he never ended a season with an ERA below 6.89. In his defense, Russ was also dealing with some injuries that limited his effectiveness. With about two and a half years left in his contract (and $22 million) the Diamondbacks released Ortiz. A stunning move by Arizona.
After an impressive 2002 with the Braves, Damian Moss had a mediocre 2003 in San Francisco, posting a 9-7 record with a 4.70 ERA. He was traded at the deadline that summer with Kurt Ainsworth and Ryan Hannaman for Sidney Ponson. Moss then exploded in an Orioles uniform, going 1-5 with a 6.22 ERA after the trade.
But it was Merkin Valdez that many viewed as the potential prize of the trade for the Giants. Though Moss had a good 2002, he was hittable and seen as an innings-eater type. But Valdéz had an arm that dazzled scouts. With youth and mid-90s heat the Giants were originally grooming Valdéz to be a starter.
Before the start of the 2004 season Baseball America ranked Merkin as the #40 overall prospect in baseball. Before the 2005 season, he was ranked #58. Valdéz was switched to relief in 2005, but that didn’t save his arm from Tommy John surgery that became necessary in October of 2006. Although he’s had some decent success in small doses, Merkin still hasn’t succeeded at the major league level since he relies on his fastball too much (approximately 80% of the time).
The Braves clearly won this trade, but were also smart to let Ortiz walk once free agency came around. The Blue Jays were probably enticed by Valdéz’ fastball velocity and may try to stash him away in Triple-A while they try to hone his off-speed stuff.
I thought the Royals were an obvious bet for a trade partner since Dayton Moore has a love of former Braves prospects.
Pineiro Gets His Halo
Interestingly, the market for starter Joel Pineiro has looked somewhat bleak recently. After a 15 win season and a 3.49 ERA, you’d think that suitors would be lining up at his door for him to pitch for their team. But this wasn’t the case.
Maybe teams were put off by the seemingly unsustainably Greg Maddux-esque walk rate (1.14 BB/9), or the amazingly high ground ball ratio (60.%). Whatever it was, the craving for Joel didn’t seem to be there.
The only teams that were truly rumored to be after the right-hander were the Mets, Dodgers, and the Angels. Pineiro settled on the Angels on Thursday, agreeing to a two-year $16 million contract. This is only $1 million more than the two-year deal that Jason Marquis landed with the Washington Nationals. Although Pineiro will likely regress this season (as FanGraphs‘ Dave Allen analyzes), he should still be a decent value for the Angels.
This really seems to hurt the New York Mets, compounding the problems they’ve dealt with in the over the past couple weeks. Recent surgery for Carlos Beltran means that he will likely be out at least the first month of the season. Although they never seemed to be enamored with Adam LaRoche, they certainly could have used him at first base, rather than seeing him in a Diamondback uniform. Benji Molina turned down a two year offer from them earlier this week for a one-year deal with the Giants. Now the last relatively intriguing pitcher on the free agent market has been snatched up.
In another FanGraphsarticle, writer Matt Klaassen talks about “The Contest” where he believes that Mets GM Omar Minaya and Royals GM Dayton Moore are in a contest to see who’s essentially the worst GM in baseball. This article was written immediately after Moore’s signing of Scott Podsednik. At the end of the article Klaassen writes, “Your move, Omar”.
Can the lack of a move be considered a “move”?
Mariners Lock Up Hernandez
Jack keeps impressing.
The Seattle Mariners locked up star pitcher Felix Hernandez with a five year deal worth $78 million. The deal buys out Hernandez’s two remaining years of arbitration and locks him up for his first three free agency years.
Felix, who came out second in the Cy Young voting last season, is still only 23 years old. When the deal is complete, Hernandez will be heading into free agency at 28, near the typical prime of a player’s career and in line for another, much larger contract.
Unless Felix comes down with a major injury over multiple seasons, this deal will make Jack Zdurincik look golden. Jack has made many good moves this off-season so far. Between signing Chone Figgins, trading for Cliff Lee, and locking up two of his young stars, Jack’s moves have been impressive.
Too bad he hasn’t replaced the power the team lost in the off-season.
Interesting Aspects in Recent Contracts
There have been some pretty funky clauses in baseball players’ contracts over time. Check out a few of them over at Jorge Says No! Many of them are personal desires of the player, like Roy Oswalt‘s bulldozer for winning Game 6 of ’05 NLCS, or Daisuke Matsuzaka’s extensive list. But with the recent economic downturn, agents are finding new ways to entice ball clubs to continue to sign large contracts. This off-season we’re seeing a few more creative contracts.
Take for instance, John Lackey’s contract with the Boston Red Sox. If an old elbow injury causes Lackey to miss a significant amount of time over the course of his contract, he’d have to play for the league minimum in 2015. The key word here is “significant” and what that means. But regardless, that’s an interesting clause. There’s been similar clauses that let the team out of the contract if such an injury comes up again, but this one is intriguing. To have Lackey play for the league minimum in 2015 if he lost the 2013 to Tommy John surgery would be nice.
But does this mean that Lackey’s injury history is bad enough that the Red Sox could not get insurance on his contract? Or were they forced to get a “rider” that excluded elbow injuries just to get insurance because his past elbow issues?
Matt Holliday recently signed a seven-year, $120 million deal with the St. Louis Cardinals that had people assuming that he’d be paid $17 million each season throughout his contract. But $2 million will be deferred each year without interest. Depending on if the option for 2017 vests, Holliday will be paid either $1.4 million or $1.6 million on July 15th every year from 2020 to 2029. It’ll be a nice early-retirement fund for him as he’ll be 49 years old when that last payment kicks in (as if he’ll need it!).
The other interesting note about Holliday’s new contract is his vesting option for 2017. I could be worth $17 million if he finishes in the top 10 in MVP voting in 2016. The Cardinals should be ecstatic if he finishes in the top 10 at age 36 and the drop-off between the age 36 and age 37 season wouldn’t be enough to warrant concern that he’d be worth near the $17 million.
Although these aspects may be missed by the average fan, it’s somewhat interesting to baseball nuts like us. I wonder if I can negotiate the purchase of bulldozer as part of my next job. Don’t know what I’d do with it on my urban residential lot of less than 1/4 acre, but it’d be a nice conversation starter of a lawn ornament.
Trade Bait: Athletics get Kouz
The Oakland Athletics have traded outfielders Aaron Cunningham and Scott Hairston to the San Diego Padres for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and second baseman Eric Sogard. It’s a notable trade from many aspects, but the most notable has to be: Is Billy Beane actually looking at his defense?
When Kouzmanoff first came up in the Cleveland Indians’ system, he was known for his bat. But a few seasons of hard work, Kouz is slightly better than average defensively, but his bat is somewhat mediocre now. Playing half his games in Petco doesn’t help though. He’ll drastically improve Oakland’s defense at the hot corner. But it also signals that the team isn’t counting on Eric Chavez to return.
Jake Fox, acquired earlier this off-season, now looks like a man without a position….much like he was in Chicago. It was assumed that he would play an ugly third base for the A’s this season while Chavez spends most of his time in the trainer’s room. He could push Daric Barton from first base, but Barton fields better and everyone knows that Billy Beane likes anyone with a .372 OBP (though with little power). Barton’s line after the All-Star break is nice as well (.287/.386/.434). He could also push aside the recently re-signed Jack Cust in the DH spot. It would be the best position for him to play defensively. Most likely he’ll be the right-handed platoon-mate for Cust, who’s horrid against left-handers (.221/.321/.300).
The Athletics also received second baseman Eric Sogard, who was taken in the second round of the 2007 draft. The infielder’s claim to fame in the minors is that he has walked 162 times, while striking out only 141 times. He has only mild power, marginal in the field, and has troubles with lefties. John Sickels, over at Minor League Ball, lists him as the #20 prospect in the Padres’ system. He may be useful off the bench for Beane in time, but the team already has Adrian Cardenas (lefty hitter) and Jemile Weeks (switch hitter) in the system.
The prize of the trade for the Padres may be outfielder Aaron Cunningham. Depending on who you talk to, Cunningham could be a decent starting outfielder with light power and speed. He could easily snatch up a job in the outfield out of spring training if he hits well enough. Defensively, he should be better than Chase Headley or Kyle Blanks in the outfield.
The Padres also receive old friend Scott Hairston, who they traded away to the Athletics last year. Hairston was pathetic with the A’s, but could take over in center for the Padres if he hits again like he did the last time he was in a Padres uniform.
The other notable impact is that the trade allows Chase Headley to move back to third base, his natural position. Hopefully it will allow him to settle in and hit like scouts thought he would as he rose through the Padres’ minor league system.
Defensively, both teams will benefit from the trade as the Athletics will actually have a natural third baseman now and the Padres get at least one poor defensive outfielder from roaming the corners of Petco Park. I’d give the slight edge to the Padres as Cunningham has more potential than Sogard. I still think he’s a long-term fourth outfielder though.
Has Billy Beane learned something from Jack Zduriencik, or has he just finally realized the need to improve his team’s lackluster defense?
JJ Signed LT
The Florida Marlins have just done something that quite unlike them, especially for the past few years. They have signed a player long term. Yesterday, the Marlins came to terms with right-handed ace Josh Johnson on a four-year contract. The $39 million pact will buy out Josh’s two remaining arbitration seasons and keep him in a Marlins uniform for his first to free agency eligible seasons.
Johnson, who will be 26 on January 31st, went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA last season, while striking out 191 and walking 58 in 209 innings. He also made the All-Star team for the first time. The deal is worth $1 million more than Zack Greinke’s, who was in a similar situation last winter. But I doubt that Johnson will break out in 2010 like Greinke did in 2009. He’ll still be a very good pitcher for the young Marlins team.
The issue about this contract is that it does not have a no-trade clause. After two seasons, if the Marlins want to clear some payroll, they can dish him off for some pretty good prospects considering the talent that he is and the nice contract. Hopefully that won’t happen with a new stadium on the way in a couple years.
But this is the Marlins, you never know.
New Year’s Resolutions
The other day I read a funny post from More Hardball entitled, “New Year’s Resolutions“. The article goes over some New Year’s resolutions that a few baseball players, and a couple teams, should have. When you need a laugh go over to their site and check it out.
But there’s a few others that I thought I would add on some General Mangers:
Padres GM Jed Hoyer
- Send the entire 40-man roster out on the street to ask for donations to sign a free agent.
- Nab a better return for Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline than the Mark Teixeira trade.
Tigers GM Dave Dombroski
- Find a taker for Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Carlos Guillen, etc, etc, etc.
- Develop the farm system beyond just relievers.
Braves GM Frank Wren
- Try not to piss off any more former Braves stars. (at least he’s moved on to current players like Lowe)
- Don’t trade Tommy Hanson for a two year rental on J.D. Drew. (You know what I mean)
Giants GM Brian Sabean
- Try to sign at least one free agent under 35 years old.
- Actually pull off a trade.
Mets GM Omar Minaya
- Do not to sign Joel Piniero to a Oliver Perez-like contract.
- Try not to overpay for Bengie Molina since there really isn’t much of a market out there for him.
Royals GM Dayton Moore:
- Don’t sign Scott Podsednik…..ooops!
- Find players with decent defense and OBP.
Looks like these GMs have their work cut out for them if they are going to meet these resolutions.
