Subcribe to this Feed
Rookies to Look For: Brian Matusz
The Baltimore Orioles have done well to rebuild their farm system over the past few years. Through trades and good drafts, there are a few quality prospects that are nearly ready in the minors to go with the budding stars in the majors (Matt Wieters, Adam Jones). Lefty Brian Matusz is another star that is on the verge of playing regularly in the majors.
Matusz, 23, was taken by Baltimore in the first round of the 2008 draft. The Orioles put Brian in High-A ball to start his first full professional season in 2009. He didn’t fail to impress. In 11 starts, Brian pitched to a 4-2 record with a 2.19 ERA. He gave up only 56 hits in 66.2 innings while striking out 75.
Even with a mediocre walk rate, the aggressive Orioles pushed Brian up to Double-A, where he proceeded to get even better. In eight starts, Brian posted a 7-0 record with a 1.55 ERA. He also posted 46 strikeouts in 46.1 innings, while maintaining an impeccable 0.91 WHIP.
With Matusz’ dominance in the minors, the Orioles took it one step further and brought him up for eight more starts as the season wore down. The jump from Double-A to the Majors was a tougher one for him though. Although he had a 5-2 record on a team that was near the back of the pack in the AL, his 52 hits given up in 44.2 innings showed that he wasn’t a flawless phenom. But the jump from Double-A to the Majors can be a big one to overcome for some.
Here’s a YouTube video of Matusz pitching in the majors from different camera angles.
Matusz throws four good pitches; an 88-94mph fastball, a plus curve ball, a slider and a change-up. With some typical adjustments to pitching in the Majors, Matusz ceiling is pretty high. The lefty could end up the team’s ace by the end of the season.
Ed Wade’s Reign of Rediculousness Extended
Honestly, I laughed when I read the news that Houston Astros GM Ed Wade had his contract extended through 2012. This was not a slight against the suffering Astros fans who have watched their team decay under Wade’s reign, it was pure bewilderment over how the team’s ownership could continue to support Wade.
His supporters will point out that he obtained Michael Bourn in a trade for Brad Lidge. But Bourn has had only one good season so far, let’s see how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting to him (Lidge has a ring now by the way). They also point to the signing of LaTroy Hawkins and a mid-season trade for Randy Wolf (the Astros were 10 games back in the NL Central at that point….by the way).
But that’s only part of the picture.
ESPN’s Jason Stark recently polled “20 baseball wisemen” on numerous questions. Guess who’s free agent signing ranked as the worst of the off-season? Yes, Ed Wade’s 3-year, $15-million contract to Brandon Lyon ranked atop the worst. There’s also been these signings in the past year alone:
Kaz Matsui – .302 OBP
Mike Hampton – 5.30 ERA
Darrin Erstad - .194 AVG,
Ivan Rodriguez - .280 OBP, and
Brian Moehler - 5.47 ERA
That’s $13,050,000 in wasted salary last season.
Then there’s Baseball America’s annual organizational rankings…the Astros have been last the past two years. Admittedly, most of that has been due to the scouting of the prior administration, but Ed’s staff hasn’t even moved them up from last in the past two years?
At least he gives me something to write about whenever he pulls off a transaction, but I’ll eventually go bald with all the head-scratching.
Over a Beer and Peanuts: The Friarhood
‘Over a Beer and Peanuts’ is a section on The Baseball Opinion where I have a frank question and answer session with a fellow blogger to get their opinion on issues related to the area of baseball that they cover. Steve Adler, over at The Friarhood, has accepted our most recent installment of this posting. His well designed (and written) blog goes into depth on numerous issues related to the San Diego Padres.
1. What are your thoughts on outfielder Kyle Blanks?
This guy is a monster! The issues with Blanks are, if will able to hit anything other than a fast ball and if manager Bud Black will put him in a position in the line up to see fastballs. If Black hits Blanks in front of Adrian Gonzalez, you can bet that Blanks will see plenty of fast balls, if Blanks is buried (protected) in the six or seven spot if could be a rough year for the youngster.
2. How about prospect Matt Latos?
Latos is an ace waiting to happen, but not yet. It sounds more and more like the Latos is going to have to blow everyone else out of the water to earn the #5 spot. I think that the Padres start Mat in AAA because of factors outside of his ability.
3. In limited time at the hot corner last season, Chase Headley posted a nice 4.4 UZR. With Chase likely heading back to his natural position at the hot corner full time next season, do you see him settling in and taking off offensively? This is a make or break year for Headley. The Padres have a lot of organizational depth at 3B, and it’s time to see if Headley can be the savior as he was advertised to fans. I do think that Headleywill hit better this season, but he won’t remind anyone of Ken Caminitti at the plate. Expect Kouzmanoff type numbers with a slightly higher average and OBP.
4. How do you see the starting rotation filling out?
Jon Garland
Chris Young
Kevin Correia
Clayton Richard
Gallagher or Stauffer (both are out of options)
5. This past year has been tough for Padre faithful. The Padres have decided not to bring back Trevor Hoffman, to trade Jake Peavy, and to replace storied GM Kevin Towers. How do you like new GM Jed Hoyer and his moves so far?
It has been rough on Padres fans, any time you send away players that the fans identify with it hurts. With that said, I think the “Jedi” is doing a great job. The only move that I question is the Yorvit Torrealba move, I would have preferred he went after a better defensive option such as a Rod Barajas. I think I’m nit picking about a back up catcher, otherwise I think Hoyer has done an outstanding job.
6. We can’t have a discussion about the Padres without bringing up Adrian Gonzalez. Do you see him signed long-term or traded? If you see him traded, what team do you believe matches up best with the Padres on such a blockbuster?
This is a question that only Adrian himself can answer. If he is willing to take less than $15M a year, then I do believe something could be worked out, but that’s not what non Padres fans want to hear. How the Padres play will determine if/when AGON is moved, if this team keeps it interesting, which could happen, Adrian will stay the entire season. If not, then he will be moved the team willing to give up the farm, literally! We hear all the chatter from Red Sox fans about how they feel they are entitled to AGON, but sign-ability will not be an issue when the trade happens, I also feel that minor league players from large markets tend to be over hyped. I see the Red Sox, Orioles and Mariners as the strongest candidates at this point. The Padres will be looking for high end arms and major league ready every day players, specifically at Catcher, Shortstop and Center Field.
Thanks to Steve for taking the time to answer some Padres questions today.
Tiger Fans Beware!
Beware Tigers fans! The Johnny Damon that you have recently signed will not put up the offensive numbers that you saw from him in 2009. This, combined with his decaying defensive abilities may make this contract look ugly, even though it’s for a relatively decent $8 million.
Johnny Damon hit a very nice .282/.365/.489 for the Yankees last season, smashing 24 home runs and stealing 12 bases in the process. Typically, a player that hit that well would command an 8-figure, multi-year salary in free agency. But not Johnny Damon, only four teams were interested in Damon when it came down to it, and none of them were interested in him for more than one gauranteed year.
Why? Let’s take a look at his home-away stats. These stats have already been pointed out by some of his detractors:
Home: .279/.382/.533, 17 home runs
Away: .284/.349/.446, 7 home runs
Typically, a player tends to hit better at home than away, but not significantly. In Damon’s case, the launching pad that is the new Yankees Stadium helped him immensely. His OBP was 33 points higher there, his slugging percentage was 87 points higher as well. If you are to double his away line, you’d get the production of a borderline starting outfielder for most teams, not a game-changer.
But let’s look at it another way. Let’s check his stats after the All-Star break.
Before: .276/.362/.510, 16 home runs
After: .290/.369/.462, 8 home runs
Although he hit better, his power took a major drop. There are some that will provide the rebuttal that Damon’s speed is more his game than his power. But Damon stole only 12 bases last season and only four of those were in the second half.
This is just fair warning, don’t expect a .282/.365/.489 line with 24 home runs and 12 stolen bases next season.
USA Today’s List of Names You Need to Know
Each year USA Today puts out a list of the 100 Names You Need to Know, a list of the prospects you should know of going into the upcoming season. It’s not a top-100 list, as many prospects in the top-100 will not be ready during the upcoming season. As I see it, the list is more of a “what rookies will have the most impact” in the upcoming season.
It’s an interesting list that gives you a little background on each of the prospects and when they might start making an impact at the Major League level. But I do have my own opinion on some of the rankings:
Pedro Alvarez(7): Though a great prospect, he still has some work left he needs to do in the minors. Andy LaRoche also took a good step forward (finally) in the second half last season as well. I could see Neal Huntington letting the market develop and see if he can get much for LaRoche (unless he plans on moving him to second, as rumored) before bringing up Alvarez.
Jon Niese(12): Niese is over-ranked in this list. His positive impact on the Mets will be significantly less than some of the others lower on this list. Many media outlets are high on him, but I have my doubts.
Brett Wallace (27): I really think that Brett’s going to force his way into the Jays’ lineup at some point early in the season. He could have a bigger impact than Daniel Hudson or Jeff Clement.
Stephen Stasburg (31): Stephen is underrated at 31. Although the Nationals will have him settle in during a short period in the minors, they’ll likely be itching to bring him up mid-season. He’s good enough to make the jump and possibly pitch as well as Tommy Hanson did last season for the Braves.
Desmond Jennings (59): He’s a little underrated here. If Jennings performs well enough and B.J. Upton continues his sluggish hitting of 2009, the Rays could hook Upton at mid-season.
David Freese(60): Barring a significant change (Like a Felipe Lopez signing), Freese will likely get the majority of the playing time at third base. He could have a bigger impact on the Cardinals’ overall offense than some of the players above him on this list.
These are just the more notable arguements about the rankings in this list. But there’s players that USA Today left off this list that I haven’t mentioned. Who’s been left off that deserves to be on this list more than Allen Craig (100)?
Nationals Pick up Wang, Kennedy
The Washington Nationals have been relatively busy once again. After an early off-season stretch that saw them trade for Brian Bruney and sign Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Marquis, things had settled down somewhat for Rizzo and the Nationals. But they are on the move again with recent signings of Adam Kennedy and Chien-Ming Wang.
The Kennedy signing almost assures that Christian Guzman will continue to be the team’s shortstop, rather sliding over to second base due to his declining range issues. But Kennedy is not a sure lock either. The last time he was in the National League, Kennedy proved to be an ugly signing for the St. Louis Cardinals. He re-established is value with the Oakland Athletics last year, but will a return to the senior league mean a return to prior problems with the bat?
Having Orlando Hudson (who they’d been courting for some time) in place of Adam Kennedy would’ve been a significant upgrade. But Rizzo understands that the team has to take small steps towards respectability and hopefully Kennedy will be a nice, reliable player that should get them by until they find a long-term solution.
Wang has won 19 games twice, sure it was with the Yankees’ offense behind him, but he was one of the team’s best pitchers from 2006-07, throwing up a 3.67 ERA during that span. He is recovering from shoulder surgery and will likely be out until May, but if he is able to return to close to his previous form, Wang should be a good addition to the Nationals’ rotation. More importantly, if his recovery goes as well as the Nationals hope, he could be good trade bait this July.
These are a couple of good, low-risk signings by Mike Rizzo. The team still has a long road ahead of them to climb back into contention, but Mike’s got them on the right path.
Over Spilled Milk: Tyler Colvin
The Chicago Cubs haven’t drafted too well in recent years. Former 1st round pick Tyler Colvin is just one of their head-scratching decisions.
After drafting Colvin out of Clemson University with the 13th overall pick in 2006, the team was high on the young outfielder and expected him to become the starting centerfielder in a few years. But Tyler’s lack of discipline at the plate brought that dream to an end…quickly.
Colvin has consistently put up low walk rates throughout his time in the minors that will significantly affect him as he heads through the upper minors. Although he hit well in a stint at Double-A last season, pitchers facing the outfielder will learn they don’t have to throw him a strike and his overall numbers will suffer. The 2010 will likely be a make-or-break season for him.
Looking back at the remainder of just the first round of the 2006 draft, there are a number of players the Cubs could have had instead of Colvin (who was a surprise pick as many teams didn’t even have him in their top 100):
| Pick | Player | Team |
| 13 | Tyler Colvin | Chicago Cubs |
| 14 | Travis Snider | Toronto Blue Jays |
| 15 | Chris Marrero | Washington Nationals |
| 16 | Jeremy Jeffress | Milwaukee Brewers |
| 17 | Matt Antonelli | San Diego Padres |
| 18 | Kyle Drabek | Philadelphia Phillies |
| 19 | Brett Sinkbeil | Florida Marlins |
| 20 | Chris Parmelee | Minnesota Twins |
| 21 | Ian Kennedy | New York Yankees |
| 22 | Colton Willems | Washington Nationals |
| 23 | Maxwell Sapp | Houston Astros |
| 24 | Cody Johnson | Atlanta Braves |
| 25 | Hank Conger | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim |
| 26 | Bryan Morris | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| 27 | Jason Place | Boston Red Sox |
| 28 | Daniel Bard | Boston Red Sox |
| 29 | Kyle McCulloch | Chicago White Sox |
| 30 | Adam Ottavino | St. Louis Cardinals |
Obviously the Cubs would love to have Travis Snider or Kyle Drabeck instead of Colvin. But I’d drop him in a heartbeat for others like Ian Kennedy, Hank Conger, and Daniel Bard.
But then again, this list is also littered with a few players with just as much or less of a chance to make it in the majors as Colvin will.
Don’t forget, Colvin’s still relatively young, so he could still learn how to take a walk and use his speed to steal more bases….but I’m not betting on it. Sure, the Cubs could have had Travis Snider in right field last season rather than Milton Bradley. But that’s crying Over Spilled Milk….and they now have the Lincecum-like Carlos Silva in the place of Bradley.
Lincecum Gets Two Years
After writing that headline I read back over it and chuckled. It sounds like Cy Young pitcher Tim Lincecum will get locked up for two years. Then again being under contract for a team that is put together by GM Brian Sabean could be loosely related to being locked up. (I’m joking you people with no sense of humor, I and my peg leg would love to be on that field, regardless of who Sabean put around me).
In addition to his salary, Lincecum could earn:
- $500,000 for each Cy Young Award
- $250,000 for second
- $100,000 for third
- $75,000 for fourth
- $50,000 for fifth
- $200,000 for pitching 225 innings
- $100,000 each time he’s an all-star
- $100,000 for NL MVP
- $75,000 for World Series MVP
- $50,000 for league championship series MVP
There’s a few that criticized that he is leaving money on the table with this deal and that it will lessen the amount that he’ll get once this contract is done and he heads back to arbitration again. But he’ll still get more over the next couple seasons than Justin Verlander or Felix Hernandez and if he performs near the level he has played the last couple seasons, the Giants will have to give him an absolute monster of a contract before his next arbitration hearing or trade him.
Tim’s taking a bit of a gamble by agreeing on the two-year contract, rather than something long-term. But the way he’s going, he has nothing to worry about, the jackpot’s on the way, whether it is from the Giants or some other team.
Could we see another Johan Santana-like trade in 2011? For the sake of the Giants fans, I hope not. But with Brian, anything’s possible.
Rainy Day Reading: The Gambler and the Investor…
Nearly every night before I fall asleep I read a few articles from other blogs in glow radiating from my Blackberry. One of the sites that I often head to is FanGraphs, a great site to conduct statistical analysis and to read great commentary from some very good writers.
A little while ago I came across an article entitled, “The Gambler and the Investor: Two Models of Fandom“. Written by Carson Cistulli, this long but very well written article immediately grabbed my attention. He discusses how he used to put “emotional wagers” on a team. Being emotionally connected to a team and how his emotions would change with the team’s fortunes. Now he’s more interested in a variety of players from various organizations. As they come up through the minors and succeed he gets the satisfaction of having followed the player since he was signed. But if they fail and are eventually out of baseball it isn’t as much of a loss as enduring an depressing losing season where your team is at the bottom of the scrap heap.
This immediately sunk in with me as I remember watching Sid Bream sliding across home plate to score the winning run in Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. From that point on I was a die-hard Atlanta Braves fan. Each year I would go from the high points of getting into the playoffs, to the disappointment of not taking home a World Series crown (except for 1995). There were even points where I wouldn’t watch a game after the 7th inning if the Braves were in the lead, thinking it was bad luck as I could possibly see the other team come back to win. This may have been more of a self-preservation thing as I emotionally didn’t want to deal with the possible gut-wrenching late inning loss.
But as time wore on, my interest in other teams grew. Although I still had a love for the Braves, younger teams with low payrolls and prospects on the way drew me in their direction. Through the years, teams like the Athletics, Rays, and Brewers caught my eye as they each had spurts of prospects rising through their system as the Braves once had during the 90s. But it didn’t hurt so much when these teams would fall out of a pennant race late in the season or get knocked out of the playoffs. Really it was more about an interest in rising players. Sure, there was still the interest in how well a team scouted and developed players, but there wasn’t as much of an emotional connection with the team itself.
It hasn’t been the star prospects either that I have followed. The lower ranked prospects with good peripheral stats and decent reports drew my attention. One player that drew my interest that has really blossomed has been Dustin Pedroia. He was never ranked higher than fifth on the Boston Red Sox prospect lists, but his stats initally drew my interest. The fact that he’s short like me and a dirt dog furthered my interest in the scrappy second baseman. But I never thought he’d be the 2008 AL MVP.
Here are some other players that haven’t been top prospects that I have been following a little closer than others over the past couple years:
P Cole Rohrbough
1B Kila Ka’aihue
OF Nelson Cruz
P Blake Hawksworth
1B Rhyne Hughes
3B Andy LaRoche
IF Matt Antonelli
OF Michael Taylor
P Johnny Cueto
P Wade Davis
IF Eric Young Jr.
An odd mix, that’s for sure. But each of these players have piqued my interest over the past couple years for one reason or another.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-gambler-and-the-investor-two-models-of-fandom
Rookies to Look For: Kila Ka’aihue
Isn’t it frustrating when a prospect doesn’t get at least one chance to shine, to flourish under the big lights of a major league ballpark? Yes, Kila Ka’ahiue, you big Hawaiian bear, I’m talking about you. Dayton Moore and the Kansas City Royals front office have essentially overlooked Kila, even after his breakout 2008 season.
Kila Ka’ahiue (pronounced KEY-luh Kuh-eye-HOO-a) was drafted in the 15th round of the 2002 draft. The lumbering 6′-3″ 233 pound Ka’ahiue rose slowly through the minor league ranks, putting up rather lackluster numbers along the way. But he broke out in a big way in 2008. He posted a 1.086 OPS in 376 plate appearances at Double-A that season before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .316/.439/.640 (1.079 OPS) in139 plate appearances. He also hit 38 home runs between Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors that season.
But those types of numbers didn’t impress the Royals front office enough and they traded for Mike Jacobs from the Florida Marlins after the 2008 season. The Royals’ trade for Jacobs was disgusting in itself. But for Kila, it meant that he would toil away in the minors for the 2009 season. Jacobs would go on to hit even worse than expected (.228/.297/.401), yet Kila didn’t get a single at-bat in the Majors in 2009. Although his .252 batting average at Triple-A didn’t impress enough, he still walked 102 times. Marc Hulet of FanGraphs pointed out that it was “…six fewer times than Jacobs has in the last three years combined.”
There’s still doubt out there that Kila will hit for a decent average in the Majors, given an adequate number of at-bats. But there’s no doubting his ability to draw a walk or display a show of power. Defensively, Kila is mediocre at best at first base, but the team is currently playing Billy Butler there and it comes down to who you want to hide at DH more. So Kila isn’t going to be great, but with the high loss total they had last season, they should of at least seen what he could do in August/September.
Kila is a prototypical Billy Beane player (see Jack Cust). Too bad he has too many Cust-like players already, Kila needs to be traded.
