Subcribe to this Feed
Rookies to Look For: Ike Davis
The New York Mets, hobbled by the injury to Daniel Murphy and desperate for some good news, have recently called up Ike Davis. The young first baseman has been destroying pitching in the minors and will likely get a long look at first in New York.
Taken with the 18th overall pick in the first round of teh 2008 draft, Ike Davis was already known as a solid hitting talent. He signed quickly and even got in 239 plate appearances with the Mets’ Low-A minor league team that season. There was some initial worry as Ike hadn’t hit a single home run in those 239 plate appearances, not good for a first baseman. But he broke out in a big way in 2009 as he hit 31 doubles and 20 home runs between High-A and Double-A.
After opening eyes in spring training, Ike got in 42 plate appearances at Triple-A, posting a .364/.500/.636 (1.136 OPS) line. The Mets waited with anticipation until he couldn’t amass enough service time in 2010 to become a free agent in 2015. With the additional “seasoning” in the minors, the Mets will have Davis under team control until at least 2016.
Defensively, Davis is an above-average fielder at first base, he’s not a DH-type that is hidden at first. But offensively Ike, a left-handed hitter, still has problems with left-handed pitchers. A platoon with the left-handed hitting Daniel Murphy won’t help that much, but the Mets seem to be willing to put up with two first basemen that can’t lefties. With some additional development time and work with major league coaches, Ike should be able to adjust to left-handed pitching and become a powerful presence in the middle of the Mets’ lineup.
Below is a YouTube video showing freeze frames of the young masher. It’s interesting how low his hands get before he swings.
Over Spilled Milk: Zobrist to the Rays
With Ben Zobrist’s recent extension with the Rays, I felt it was appropriate to do an “Over Spilled Milk” piece on the trade that sent Zobrist to the Rays. After Zobrist’s offensive explosion last season, it looks as if he’s become the biggest part of the trade and has swung the deal in the favor of the Rays. But let’s look at the deal in depth.
In 2006 the Houston Astros felt they were in a race for the NL Central crown. It was going to be the last year that they would have pitching great Roger Clemens around and they wanted to make one last push with the roster they had. The problem was, they were tied for last (at one point) in the National League in batting average. Their offense in general was mediocre at best.
Then GM Tim Papura made a preemptive strike on the trade market by agreeing to a deal with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on July 13th that would send slugger Aubrey Huff to the Astros for two prospects. Huff, who went to high school and junior college in Texas, was hitting .283 with eight home runs and 28 RBI in 63 games for the Devil Rays at the time of the trade. He brought a decent left-handed power bat to the right-handed heavy Astros. They needed a more impact bat if they expected to get into the race, but Huff was assumably the best that Papura could get at the time. In Papura’s defense, Huff was one of only five left-handed hitters to average 100-plus RBI the previous three seasons and the other four (David Ortiz, Carlos Delgado, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu) didn’t seem to be available on the trade market.
Although Huff hit only .250 the rest of the season in Houston, he did slug 13 home runs and drove in 38 RBIs in 68 games. Projected over a about 150 games (to count in off-days etc.), that would relate to nearly 29 home runs and about 84 RBIs. I’d say that’s a pretty nice addition. But it wasn’t enough to get the Astros over the hump and into the playoffs as the team finished 1-1/2 games back from the Cardinals in the NL Central. Huff was a free agent at the end of the season and wasn’t offered arbitration. He would go on to sign a multi-year contract with the Orioles and is now with the San Francisco Giants.
Mitch Talbot, the first player received by Tampa Bay in the trade, was a right-handed starter that was having a decent year with the Astros’ Double-A team. A the time of the trade he was 6-4 with a 3.39 ERA, striking out 96 and walking only 29 in 90 1/3 innings. For the remainder of the season Talbot would go 4-3 with a 1.90 ERA over 10 starts. The next two seasons he spent most of his time in Triple-A, going 13-9 each season, gave up more hits than innings pitched each year. He spent a little time with the big league club in 2008, but was knocked around. He worked his way back from a shoulder injury in 2009 to garner enough interest for the Cleveland Indians to trade catcher Kelly Shoppach for him.
Out of options, the Indians not only kept him on their roster, but they’ve put him in the rotation. So far he is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in three starts, giving up only 14 hits in 20 innings. He’ll eventually come down to earth when the hitters around the league adjust to him, but he’s been a decent find so far for the Indians. Talbot may eventually land in middle-relief, but he could be pretty useful in that spot.
At the time of the trade, Ben Zobrist was regarded by many as a decent future utility infielder. Although it was getting obvious that B.J. Upton wasn’t going to stick at shortstop, Zobrist didn’t look like a long-term option at short. There were thoughts that Zobrist could possibly be a stop-gap until the blossoming Reid Brignac was ready. Zobrist hit relatively well in the minors and was given a 183 AB shot at short in the majors the same year he was traded for. After not hitting well in the majors in 2006, Ben hit even worse there in 2007. But Ben made it back to the majors in 2008 and didn’t fail to impress, producing a .253/.339/.505 line with 10 doubles and 12 home runs in 198 at-bats (consider that production over a full season of at-bats). But his breakout season came last year as he hit .297/.405/.543 in 501 AB, ripping 27 home runs in the process.
The contract that he received recently is a very team-friendly contract that should look good for the Rays.
In the end, it looks as if the the Rays came out as the big winners in this trade. They essentially have the slick-hitting Zobrist and catcher Kelly Shoppach for a few month rental of Aubrey Huff, who wasn’t enough to get the Astros into the playoffs. Richard Justice’s blog on Chron.comnoted that Roger Clemens had gone to Drayton McLane and said: “We have to do something. We need help.” I’m not sure if this happened before or after the trade, but the team did need help, yet it didn’t get enough help and the lack of moves may have shortened Tim Papura’s stay in Houston.
You have to wonder if the Rays’ Senior VP of Baseball Operations, Gerry Hunsicker, pushed for this trade as he saw the potential of the two players they acquired while he was the GM of the Astros. Notch this one in as a win for Tampa.
Rainy Day Reading…Watching: MSG Picks All-Time Best NY Lineup
The Lineupis the new original series on with MSG Network airing on Tuesdays at 10:30 p.m. The show looks at each position around the diamond and will determine NY’s All-Time Best. All-time greats Donnie “Baseball” Mattingly and Alex Rodriguez are already on the list.
They’ve already completed the infield, now they’re into looking at the outfield positions. The next shows airs Tuesday, April 27th at 10:30pm (EST).
Rookies to Look For: Jason Heyward
The title of this article may be a little deceiving when it comes to Atlanta Braves outfielder Jason Heyward. Do you really need to look for Heyward? He’s been the buzz of baseball, even before damaging cars with his mammoth home runs during spring training. There have been numerous articles written on the young slugger the past few months and they aren’t likely to stop soon.
The Braves were heavily interested in Heyward early on as one of their scouts even hid in trees beyond the outfield fence to keep from showing other teams that the Braves were scouting Jason heavily. Seeing his potential, they drafted Heyward out of his Georgia high school with the 14th overall pick of the 2007 draft. Jason proceeded pretty fast through the minors for a player coming out of high school. But I guess at team can push you through the system when you are able to destroy Double-A pitching with a .352/.446/.611 line in Double-A at the ripe old age of 19.
As he started to put on a show in spring training, there was a growing belief that the team would keep Heyward in the minors for at least the first month to push back the arbitration/free agency clocks. But the Braves nixed that idea, believing that they have a shot at contending this season and the outfielder was an integral part to the run for the playoffs. So far he hasn’t disappointed anyone has he clobbered a home run in his first at bat and, as of April 14th, had half of the team’s total home runs (6) on the season. He’s also held onto a decent batting average and on-base percentage so far. Top that off with a two-out, two-run single in the bottom of the 9th that won the April 18th game against the Rockies and it’s clear he’s already paying dividends.
The only concern that I’ve read about so far on Heyward has been his pertinence to chase after breaking balls in the dirt (as analyzed by Dave Allen of FanGraphs), something that immediately reminded me of another Braves outfielder with immense potential when he was called up, Andruw Jones. Andruw’s love to flail wildly at sliders down and away was possibly his biggest weakness. I remember getting up from the couch whenever Jones strode to the plate against a pitcher with a good slider. It’s better to go get a pop and something to snack on rather than watch something so ugly. Hopefully Heyward is more open to adjustment than Jones supposedly was.
So be patient in your expectations of Heyward. It’s his rookie year and he’s still adjusting, don’t expect 30+ home runs…..yet. It is completely possible that Heyward will eventually hit .300/40HR/120RBI in a single season though. The Braves have a real gem in this kid.
Over Spilled Milk: Nelson Cruz to the Brewers
In December of 2004 Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s was looking for some insurance at second base. The 2003 starter at second, Mark Ellis, had just sat out the entire 2004 season with a shoulder injury. The 2004 regular starter at the position, Marco Scutaro, posted a .690 OPS. To get the insurance he needed, Beane looked to the Milwaukee Brewers and Kieth Ginter. On December 16th Beane traded outfielder Nelson Cruz and pitcher Justin Lehr to the Brewers in exchange for Ginter.
Ginter seemed like a pretty good fit at the time. In 2004 Ginter socked 19 home runs and held a .819 OPS for the Brew Crew and his numbers from previous years indicated a possible further upswing in his stats. Kieth’s ability to play second and third also gave the A’s some infield flexibility.
But things didn’t work out that well for Ginter in Oakland. Ellis came back from the shoulder injury and had a very nice year at second for the A’s. Eric Chavez stayed healthy enough to play all season (unbelievable isn’t it?), limiting Ginter’s chances for playing time at the hot corner. And he couldn’t knock Scott Hatteburg (even with Scott’s .677 OPS) out of the DH spot in the order. Ginter would go on to hit .161 in 156 plate appearances that season and never saw the majors again after that.
Justin Lehr was a decent looking middle relief pitcher. He had just finished his rookie season with Oakland and put up somewhat ugly numbers, but the Brewers saw a little more potential to be a dependable middle reliever. In 2005 Lehr would post a 3.89 ERA (albeit with a 1.44 WHIP) for Milwaukee. But he blew up in 2006, posting an 8.62 ERA (1.98 WHIP) in 16 games. He bounced around the minors for a few seasons until showing up in a starting role for the Cincinnati Reds last year. Although Lehr had an ugly 5.37 ERA in 11 starts, he did have a 5-3 record and shutout the Chicago Cubs in August. He may be out of baseball now though as stats are not showing up for him.
Outfielder Nelson Cruz was the diamond in the rough on this trade though. Although there were questions surrounding him at the time of the trade on whether or not he’d be able to hit at the major league level (149K in 536 minor league AB in 2004), the Brewers still liked his bat. Cruz would post a .965 OPS at Double-A in 2005, followed by an .872 OPS at Triple-A later that season. His development continued as he hit .302/.378/.528 (.906 OPS) in Triple-A in 2006 before being traded to the Texas Rangers. Since the trade Cruz has pushed his way onto the major league roster and now resides in the middle of the Rangers’ batting order. With only 41 at-bats into this season, Cruz is hitting .317 with 7 home runs and 15 RBIs.
It looks as though this trade could be called a major win for the Brewers. If you don’t include the later-on trade of Cruz to the Rangers, the Brewers received a little more out of Lehr than Ginter and they also received a future middle-of-the-order bat in Nelson Cruz. It’s just too bad that he’s not in Milwaukee’s batting order in place of Corey Hart.
Limestone and Baseballs
This past weekend I watched a Minnesota Twins game on TV and checked out the new Target Field. The stadium is completely beautiful, yet another great job by Populous (formerly HOK Sport). But it was a design quirk that really caught my eye during the game. Mankato Limestone highlights many areas throughout the ballpark. There is a wall of this limestone to the left of the left field foul pole, it also caps the dugouts and edges the top of the right field fence. This hard surface will have many impacts on a game played there that will make playing a game at Target Field a unique experience occasionally.
John Hickey of FanHouse has talked of how this limestone came into play in just the first game alone. The limestone, which is yellowish in nature, made a fair/foul call tough for umpires on opening day as the color differentiation between the foul pole and the limestone is minimal. Also, foul balls that bounce off the dugout tend to bounce higher, possibly giving fans with seats further back to have more of a chance to catch a ball.
But it was the right field wall limestone that I thought was a game-changer for me. MotownTigers.com has the best image of the overhang that I could find. In the game that I watched, Kansas City Royals first baseman Billy Butler lined a hard-hit ball off the limestone, making a harder ricochet than your typical outfield wall. The ball shot over right fielder Michael Cuddyer’s head and back towards the infield. Luckily for Minnesota, the not-so-fleet-footed Butler decided to try to stretch the hit into a triple and got caught by Cuddyer’s arm after he retreated to get the ball.
It looks as though this feature will make right field interesting for outfielders to play in the future. It kind of reminds me of the Green Monster in Boston. Sure, the dimensions are massively different, but outfielders have to constantly adjust their route to the ball based on where they think the ball will hit on the wall. If you know it will hit high enough to hit the limestone, you better stop early to adjust for the carom. But if you guess incorrectly, the ball may hit lower on the wall and drop near the warning track.
Needless to say, every time that I watch a game that’s played at Target Field, I’ll be watching the balls ripped to right field a little more intently.
The Undervalued Olivo
There was one thing that stuck out in my mind after the Ubaldo Jimenez no-hitter on Saturday night. It was not that Ubaldo Jimenez is a great pitcher (he clearly is), it wasn’t Dexter Fowler’s nice catch that preserved the no-hitter, it wasn’t the fact that it was the first no-hitter for Rockies organization, it was the catcher that was behind the plate that night. Ubaldo Jimenez’ catcher that night was Miguel Olivo.
Who caught most of Kansas City Royals’ ace Zach Greinke’s innings last season? Miguel Olivo. As Troy Renck of the Denver Post reported:
“He was good for me. I liked throwing to him. A lot of the guys did. He worked hard at it,” Greinke said Wednesday. “Last year he started paying more attention to opposing hitters. We wanted him back.”
Greinke has been quoted by others to say that Olivo was one of the people that had a direct impact on his breakout season.
But the Royals and Olivo parted ways during the off-season and the Colorado Rockies picked him up. Now Zach’s off to an 0-2 start with 20 hits given up in 17.2 innings, while Olivo is now teamed with another young arm with great potential in Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez is off to a 3-0 start with a 1.29 ERA……and a no hitter. Is the potential there for a Cy Young? According to Yahoo’s Steve Hens0nMiguel Olivo thinks so.
Olivo may be the final piece to Jimenez’ Cy Young hopes.
Rookies to Look For: Michael Bowden
The Boston Red Sox’ farm system is decently stocked with some interesting pitching prospects. From Jonathan Papelbon to Clay Buchholz, the team has grown some decent pitching talent to help the big league club. But there are also some players on the cusp of the majors that just can’t get their chance. Pitcher Michael Bowden is one of them.
The 23 year old right-hander toes the mound at 6′-3″ and 220 pounds. He features four pitches, a 88-92 mph fastball that can climb as high as 94 mph, a hard 12-6 curve, a very good circle change, and a recently developed low-to-mid 80s slider. His fastball tends to have some good late sink, while his change fades away from lefties. Although his pitching motion is fairly atypical, it gets the job done while causing a little deception. Although Bowden’s received a decent amount of press because he’s in the Red Sox organization, he’s not projected to be a top-tier pitcher in the majors. He’s often looked at as a #3 or a #4 pitcher in a major league rotation.
So, does Michael have a future in the Red Sox organization? It’s doubtful. He’s nearly ready for regular major league duty, but the Red Sox now have three starters locked in to 2014 (Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Jon Lester), Buchholz under team control during that span, Dice-K through at least 2012, and Wakefield’s likely sticking around as long as he wants.
Bowden is often compared to another former Red Sox prospect, Jeff Suppan. Suppan started in Boston, but he had is best years after he left. The same may be in line for Bowden. Born in Aurora, Illinois, Michael may draw some interest from teams near his home town (as some teams try to do in the draft). The trade-happy White Sox GM Kenny Williams may be looking for post-Freddy Garcia options, or Chicago Cubs’ Jim Hendry, who could be looking for cheap help at the back of the rotation at some point. Then again, the seemingly always pitching starved Kansas City Royals may try to get 39 wins out of Bowden as they did in Suppan’s four years in KC. Although Bowden’s not seen as much of a game-changer, he should be a decent innings-eater for a few teams out there.
Here is a short video showing Bowden’s somewhat funky delivery.
Another video featuring an interview with the young pitcher can be seen here on YouTube as well. He seems rather well spoken and intellectual.
Hopefully the Red Sox don’t let him wallow away in the minors much longer and either utilize him or trade him to someplace he has a chance to be a regular.
Will there be Fallout from the Cain Contract?
As discussed earlier on this site, Matt Cain has received a contract extension to pitch for the San Francisco Giants through 2012. It is a decent contract for the team in my eyes, but the contract may have other consequences. Matt Cain’s contract stipulates a salary for 2012 of $15 million. When combined with the team’s existing excruciatingly ugly contract with Barry Zito, the Giants will have roughly $35 million committed to two pitchers for that season. What is the fallout of this extension? Is the future of a certain back-to-back Cy Young award winner up in the air when considering who he’ll pitch for?
Tim Lincecum has been completely dominant over the past couple years, earning two Cy Youngs in his first two 200 innings seasons. He’s also off to a great start on his 2010 campaign as well. His pitching excellence brought out rumors that he would be asking for upwards of $20 million in a historic arbitration request this past off-season. But he and the team settled on a two-year, $23 million contract that would pay him $9 million this season and $14 million in 2011.
Looking forward to 2012, if he continues to dominate opposing hitters, Lincecum could ask for a monumentus figure in arbitration or long-term contract discussions. Even if you were to split his raise from 2010 to 2011 in half and apply it to his 2012 salary, he would be paid $16.5 million. This would mean that the team would have three players earning a total of $51.5 million in 2012. If the team maintained their 2010 opening day payroll of $96,277,833 (Cot’s Baseball Contracts), the three starters would take up over half (53.49%) of the payroll. That would leave roughly $44.8 for the rest of the roster. But if you figure in Brian Wilson’s recent extension, and if Jeremy Affeldt’s option gets picked up, the remaining amount for the rest of the roster would be $31.5 million……ugh!
Unless there are some substantial increases in the team’s payroll over the next couple seasons, someone will likely have to go in order for the team to have ANYassemblance of a offense….or other pitchers for that matter. Although trading Tim Lincecum would be nearly as bad of a PR nightmare as trading Albert Pujols would be to the Cardinals, you have to wonder about GM Brian Sabean’s options. Zito is unmovable and has been since he signed on the dotted line. Cain’s $15 million salary for 2012 does not give much room between his performance and the expected performance of a pitcher earning that figure (FanGraphs gave his production last season a value of $16 million). If Cain regresses, the team may be handcuffed by two large contracts for 2012.
Has Sabean run into a pot o’ gold for the next few seasons?
Rainy Day Reading: Rider, slurve and… Titanic
While perusing through my RSS links one day I came across an interesting article about pitching….more specifically the pitches that are thrown. Max Marchi over at Hardball Times wrote an article entitled Rider, slurve and….Titanic that goes in-depth about the numerous types of pitches that are thrown. It is a very interesting read if you have the time.
In addition to going in-depth about the different types of pitches thrown, Max throws in quotes to further his points. My favorite was from Bob Gibson:
“It was said that I threw, basically, five pitches—fastball, slider, curve, change-up, and knockdown. I don’t believe that assessment did me justice, though. I actually used about nine pitches—two different fastballs, two sliders, a curve, change-up, knockdown, brushback and hit batsman.”
Bob Gibson, Stranger to the Game.
As I was growing up, I only knew of four main pitches. The fastball, curve, slider, and change up was the basic arsenal (though I did occasionally throw a screwball in wiffle-ball). But the vast array of pitches out there is truly interesting once you really break it down. From the basics like the fastball, to the elusive gyro, the list goes on and on. Max categorized all of them into 14 groups:
I especially like his comment about fast/slow curve balls being two different pitches. It’s a totally different experience when stepping into the box against either one of the two.
It’s a good thing that catchers don’t have to use this system though. Imagine the signals that would have to go down for a slurve when there is a man on base.
