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Why Nobody Hires Steve Phillips as GM Anymore
Recently former New York Mets GM Steve Phillips was on a radio talk show stating that he would trade Steven Strasburg for Roy Oswalt. Yes, you’ve read right, the most hyped phenom pitcher for quite a while, a pitcher that has absolutely demolished minor league hitters, Steve is willing to trade him for Oswalt.
After much ridicule in amongst the blogs, Steve Phillips explained and defended his position on MLB FanHouse. Although I side with him that prospects are ‘just that’, prospects, with no guarantee that they’ll live up to the billing placed on them to be starts by the scouts and the media. I also agree that it is unlikely that the Nationals will pursue a Strasburg-centric trade package as he doesn’t believe they are true contenders and Oswalt will likely veto a trade as he wants to go to a solid contender.
But to trade Strasburg for Oswalt is blasphemy. I can see trading an A- graded prospect for an ace pitcher, even a Martin Perez, Jeremy Hellickson, or Madison Bumgarner. But Strasburg is a true A++ prospect. It should also be noted that the Phillies didn’t even give up their top prospect, outfielder Domonic Brown, for Roy Halladay, who is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the best pitcher, in baseball. Domonic was ranked #15 on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects List. Strasburg? Number two, behind that Heyward guy in Atlanta.
Additionally, I truly believe that he will out perform Oswalt from the All-Star break to the end of the season, let alone for the next three years. Oswalt has had a nice resurgent season, but I doubt he could go to Triple-A and dominate like Strasburg has (0.39 ERA). Although I like Oswalt and believe he would be a great addition for any contender, he’s starting to age and outside of this season, his statistics have started to fade.
But I guess the question here is: Met’s fans, who would you rather have as your GM, Omar Minaya or Steve Phillips?
It’s Just Speculation: Roy Oswalt to the Dodgers
Yesterday we listed the potential suitors in the possible upcoming Roy Oswalt derby. But let’s not just stop there, how about full-out speculation? Let’s take some potential suitors and see what they could offer the Astros for Oswalt. For this short series, we’ll take John Sickels’ Top 20 Prospects lists over at Minor League Ball and snatch a few players off that great listing to make up a potential trade package.
As a disclaimer, it’s just speculation, this is not a rumor. We also have to consider that there’s a likelihood that Astros GM Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane will have to kick in some money in the deal. The quality of the prospects that would come back in the trade would likely relate to the amount of money included. Also, Ed Wade’s leverage has been lessened somewhat by Oswalt’s trade demand. He doesn’t have to deal Roy, but it could be a potential negative media storm if he doesn’t.
With all that in mind, let’s look at one of the suitors, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been lingered in 3rd place in the NL West much of the season, but are now in 2nd. Memories of Kevin Malone have an article up on Roy Oswalt and whether or not they need him. Bill Shaikin of the LA Times (MLBTR link) reports that they have at least kicked the tires on him. Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, even rookie Jon Ely have pitched well in the early going. But they have gotten bad performances from Vicente Padilla (6.65 ERA), Ramon Ortiz (6.30 ERA), and Charlie Haeger (8.49 ERA). Adding a fifth solid pitcher and providing insurance against a late-season rookie regression of Ely may push the Dodgers into considering a trade.
What would it take? I imagine that the bidding will likely start with two of the team’s top arms in the system. Likely a combination that includes a couple from a pack of Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, and Scott Elbert. They might then pick an outfielder in the lower levels of the system, but with interesting upside as they prepare for the post-Carlos Lee era in 2013. Power slugging, but strikeout prone Kyle Russell and the toolsy Jonathan Garcia fit the bill.
In the end, I believe that the Astros go after Withrow (B+, Sickels), Miller (B), and a Kyle Russell (C+).
Cliff Lee is the closest comparable that I can find at this time. The Mariners gave up pitchers Phillippe Aumont (B-) and Juan Ramirez (B-), as well as outfielder Tyson Gillies (C+). There were quite a few at the time that mentioned that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t get enough for him.
Is this enough? Is it too much? Who’d you throw in a package for the Astros’ ace?
It’s Just Speculation: Roy Oswalt to the Tigers
Yesterday we listed the potential suitors in the possible upcoming Roy Oswalt derby. But let’s not just stop there, how about full-out speculation? Let’s take some potential suitors and see what they could offer the Astros for Oswalt. For this short series, we’ll take John Sickels’ Top 20 Prospects lists over at Minor League Ball and snatch a few players off that great listing to make up a potential trade package.
As a disclaimer, it’s just speculation, this is not a rumor. We also have to consider that there’s a likelihood that Astros GM Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane will have to kick in some money in the deal. The quality of the prospects that would come back in the trade would likely relate to the amount of money included. Also, Ed Wade’s leverage has been lessened somewhat by Oswalt’s trade demand. He doesn’t have to deal Roy, but it could be a potential negative media storm if he doesn’t.
With all that in mind, let’s look at one of the suitors, the Detroit Tigers. The Detroit Tigers have been at or near the top of the AL Central all season. Although they are currently in second, you’d think that they’d be lower in the standings with Rick Porcello posting an ERA of 5.58 and Max Scherzer running out an ugly 7.29 ERA. Given that Dontrelle Willis‘ WHIP is 1.68, it won’t be long before he joins those two with an ERA above 5.00. The team obviously needs at least a solid #2 behind Justin Verlander.
What would it take? I imagine that the bidding will likely start with one of the team’s top arms in the system. Likely Casey Crosby or Jacob Turner. Then, possibly a near-ready infielder of some type. The Tigers’ system isn’t stuffed with proven prospects in that realm, but two immediately come to mind. Outfielder/first baseman Ryan Strieby may be a potential replacement for Lance Berkman if he’s traded, or second baseman Scott Sizemore could eventually push Jeff Keppinger back to a more appropriate utility role. Brennan Boesch’s emergence and Carlos Guillen’s eventual return from injury have likely made both players expendable. But both players are having significant problems at the plate this season and may make the Astros leery about picking them up.
In the end, I believe that the Astros would sour on Crosby’s elbow history and go after Turner (B+, Sickels), Sizemore (B), and two lower-echelon arms from a pack of Cody Satterwhite (C+), Robbie Weinhardt (C+) or Brayan Villarreal (C+).
Cliff Lee is the closest comparable that I can find at this time. The Mariners gave up pitchers Phillippe Aumont (B-) and Juan Ramirez (B-), as well as outfielder Tyson Gillies (C+). There were quite a few at the time that mentioned that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t get enough for him.
Is this enough? Is it too much? Who’d you throw in a package for the Astros’ ace?
Oswalt on the Block?
The talk of the baseball world recently has been Roy Oswalt‘s request for a trade. MLBTR recently posted this quote out of an interview with Rob Dibble and Jim Memolo on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM.
“When you get to a point where you need to start rebuilding they’re going to start with a guy that’s got a lot of value and I understand that if I’m throwing well that they maybe can get two or three guys that can fill holes that they need. I told them from the very beginning when they get to that point I would be open to [being traded].”
So what are the possible destinations. Roy has a no-trade clause in his contract that essentially gives him the choice on whether or not he’ll go to any team once a deal has been struck. Jayson Stark of ESPN stated in an article that a friend of Oswalt believes the hurler’s preferred destinations are Texas, St. Louis, and Atlanta. This batch of destinations is tough as he doesn’t look like a true fit at any location.
Texas- The team would welcome the addition of an ace pitcher, especially one with fan roots in Texas. But the Rangers are going through an ownership change and their budget is pretty tight as it is. If Astros owner Drayton McLane would be open to eating a large chunk of what’s owed on the Oswalt’s contract, the team may be able to snatch some decent prospects from the Rangers’ deep farm system.
St. Louis- Except for the grossly overpaid Kyle Lohse, the Cardinals rotation looks pretty rock-solid. Their budget looks pretty tight as well, especially if they are trying to lock up Albert Pujols eventually.
Atlanta- About the same situation exists in Atlanta. Derek Lowe‘s contract is immovable, it’s doubtful that they’ll move Kawakami out of a starting role, and they are in need of offense more than another starting pitcher.
So, are there other teams that would benefit enough from adding Oswalt to take on the $31 million that he’s owed over the next couple seasons?
Boston- The Red Sox are 24th in the majors in ERA, but they already have a costly rotation and will likely stick to in-house options regardless.
Cincinnati- With Homer Bailey injured, the Reds could use another arm (who would out-pitch Bailey’s 5.51 ERA). But would the Astros deal within their division?
Detroit- Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello have both struggled this season, could Oswalt somehow fit in their budget?
Los Angeles (Dodgers)- With struggles from a few members of their starting rotation, the Dodgers may be an interesting suitor. Will the McCourt struggles influence things though?
San Diego- The Padres aren’t spending much on their roster now. But they traded away Peavy last season and the team is 2nd in the majors in ERA. They need more hitting than pitching anyway.
Toronto- If the Jays stay in the thick of things, they may be looking to add an ace. If so, it’d definitely be for a smaller package than what they sent Halladay packing with.
Washington- The Nationals are unexpectedly good this season and could use a viable staff ace. But they will soon have Strasburg up and may not want to tear down their rebuilding farm system.
D-Backs Bullpen Woes Fixable?
The Arizona Diamondbacks came into the season with high hopes. Many analysts believed that they were amongst the most improved of the off-season. But those hopes quickly fizzled as Brandon Webb went on the DL and the team’s pitching imploded. The team is currently last amongst all 30 teams in ERA and the bullpen has converted only 8 of the 18 save opportunities handed to them. Aaron Heilman and Billy Buckner (only 5 IP) are the only relievers in the pen with an ERA under 5.00.
There isn’t a whole lot of help down on the farm either. The recently acquired Carlos Rosa has sported a nice 2.76 ERA, but his 1.59 WHIP says that he’ll have problems in the majors. Except for Rosa and Daniel Stange, no other reliever with over 10 innings pitched in Triple-A this season has a WHIP under 1.50. The best relief for the team’s relief woes is probably outside of the organization.
With the team already last place and 6.5 games back of the surprise NL West leading San Diego Padres, it may be best that the team just looks for patch-work options that just makes the pen at least passable so that it doesn’t completely ruin the psyches of the young players throughout the roster.
Chad Gaudin was recently released by the Oakland Athletics. As Ben Nicholson-Smith writes for MLB Trade Rumors, Gaudin’s walk and strikeout rates are pretty good, he’s just been hit harder this season than regularly. The D-Backs may be the latest to give the righty a try.
Going into the season, Brian Bruney was viewed as a potential closer for the Washington Nationals. But he’s walked 20 batters in just 17.2 innings-pitched….needless to say, that’s not a good sign of success. However, he a former Diamondback and the team may be able to get him back on track.
Although neither reliever has been good at all this season, they both have a decent track record and may be salvageable. If the Diamondbacks can stow them away in Triple-A while they try to figure out any flaws, they may be able to at least get some league-average innings out of them.
Something needs to change, or Manager A.J. Hinch may want to replace the boxes of gum in the dugout with antacids.
Salty Can’t Throw?
Recently, Andy Behrens of Yahoo Sportswrote an article about Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Andy says the only thing keeping Salty from the majors isn’t his bat, it’s his arm….or more so, his head.
Jarrod is hitting .329 with a .913 OPS for the Oklahoma City RedHawks. Statistics that have Rangers fans clamoring for the young catcher to be recalled to the majors. Additionally, the hitting performance (or lack thereof) of the team’s catching in Arlington is just another reason why Rangers fans are wanting the call-up. Matt Treanor, the catcher getting most of the at-bats, is hitting .208 with an ugly .557 OPS.
What is holding him back is his ability to throw….to the pitcher. Salty has always been known for his bat. But his arm was thought of as serviceable for the catching position. Even still today he doesn’t have any problems throwing to second base. The problem is throwing to the pitcher. Yes, the pitcher. It’s sort of like Steve Blassdisease, but for catchers. Andy likens it to former Mets catcher Mackey Sasser’s issues. But to me it’s more like Rube Baker disease. You never thought that something you’ve seen on Major League 2 would come to life.
I guess they just need to give Salty some issues of Playboy to read so he can recite the articles while he’s throwing.
Rookies to Look For: Starlin Castro
Recently the Chicago Cubs called up highly touted shortstop prospect Starlin Castro. The 20-year-old Castro was batting .376 Double-A at the time of the call-up. In 26 games at Tennessee this season he had knocked one homer, eight doubles, five triples and 20 RBIs. But can the young infielder handle jump to the majors? A debut game that included a three-run home run and a three-run triple should give you an indication that at least he’s not afraid.
Castro started his professional career with the Cubs in their Arizona League affiliate. As an 18-year-old, Starlin hit .311/.364/.464 in rookie ball. The following season, the Cubs pushed him all the way up to High-A where he hit .302/.340/.391 in 387 plate appearances. He also stole 22 bases, but was caught 11 times in the process. Seeing improvement in his bat, the Cubs pushed him up to Double-A to end the 2009 season. Starlin proceeded to hit .288/.347/.396 in 122 plate appearances. Castro was well on his way, he even stole 6 bases without getting caught.
The Cubs returned Castro to Double-A to start this season. He’s been on a tear since the season started, posting a .376/.421/.569 line in 109 at-bats. He’s been caught stealing (5) more times than he’s stolen a base (4), but you can’t ignore that batting line. Although he displayed some power with a .464 slugging percentage in rookie ball, the .569 line is a major jump.
Here’s a YouTube video of him hitting during Spring Training this season:
Defensively, he’s been praised for having above-average range, soft hands, a strong, accurate arm and very good instincts on the field. He’s still error prone, but Castro’s only 20 and should improve steadily with instruction from major league coaching.
It’ll be interesting to see how he adjusts as the kid only has 57 games of experience above A-ball. But there’s no doubt, the Cubs have a pretty good shortstop on their hands.
Trey Hillman Dismissed
Matt Klaassen over at FanGraphs has a good article up on the release of Trey Hillman from his managerial duties for the Kansas City Royals. It’s an interesting post on Hillman, as well as a commentary on GM Dayton Moore and how his days may be numbered as well.
I was not apprised of the depth of the disdain that Royals players had for Hillman, but it’s not too often that a players-only meeting goes well for a manager, regardless if they specifically discuss the manager or not.
In Hillman’s defense though, he wasn’t really provided with a workable roster. As can be read in previous posts, I have not been a fan of Moore’s ability to build a roster. I liken it to being given an older Monte Carlo to drag race with. Sure, it’s not the best vehicle to drag race with, but if put together properly, it can at least give the other cars a decent race. But someone keeps putting below-average parts on the car, from the economy sedan tires to forgetting to include a radiator. Even the bobble hula dancer on the dash has been replaced with a Mike Jacobs bobble-head.
Hillman’s not the last to go. There’s some more housecleaning ahead.
It’s Time Ken
Ken Griffey Jr. has had an amazing career. A career that had some analysts believing early on that he could surpass Hank Aaron in lifetime home runs. For his career, he’s hit 630 home runs and stolen 184 bases. Ken has averaged a .284/.370/.539 line with a 38 average over a 162-game season. When I was just a kid, his poster adorned the walls of the bedrooms of many of my friends. We all attempted to replicate his sweet swing at one time or another.
The sad aspect is that his career totals should be even higher than the lofty numbers mentioned above. Injuries have plagued the second half of his career. When you look back at his averages before the injuries and calculate what could have happened if injuries didn’t derail his path, the numbers are astronomical. Yet even with those setbacks, Griffey is a surefire Hall of Famer. It will be surprising if he isn’t considered a first-ballot shoe-in.
But the time has come Ken to hang up his spikes. The 2009 season (.214/.324/.411) was an indication that age was creeping up on the former All-Star. Now he’s hitting .200/.264/.225 in 87 plate appearances. The Seattle Mariners are struggling offensively and cannot afford to let Griffey continue to take up roster space.
It’s time, Ken, to spend more time with Trey, Taryn, Tevin and your wife. It’s been a historic career to be proud of.
It’s time to feel free to take a nap while watching a Mariner game on TV.
Neal’s Rebuilding Plan Awry?
Recently I read an article from FoxSports.com’s Jon Paul Morosi about the Pittsburgh Pirates and GM Neal Huntington’s rebuilding plan. Frankly, it was a frustrating article in my eyes as he feels that Huntington’s plan has yet to yield results. Although I haven’t liked certain trades constructed under Huntington’s regime, I will certainly come to his defense on the rebuilding plan.
The article mocks struggling pitcher Charlie Morton after an interview with him. It looks as if he just interviewed Morton for the chance to write the words, “sorry Charlie” in his blog.
He also quips at Huntington’s statement in an interview that he has moved past the “talent accumulation phase.” Through is writing it seems as though Morosi feels that the team should be able to move from the “talent accumulation phase” to a “contending” phase. He even twists statistics in stating:
“Before Wednesday, pitchers acquired since 2008 had accounted for 14 starts this season – and only one win.”
The pitchers acquired during his tenure won 22 games last season. More notably, of the 30 players that the team has traded for since Huntington took over, 19 are still in the minors. Can you really look at results when nearly two-thirds of the acquisitions are in the minors still?
Let’s take a look at the pitchers:
| Pitchers | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Ross Ohlendorf (2009) | 176.2 | 165 | 53 | 109 | 3.92 | 1.23 |
| Jeff Karstens | 17.2 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 4.08 | 1.53 |
| Daniel McCutchen | 12 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 13.50 | 2.17 |
| Bryan Morris (A+) | 40.2 | 34 | 5 | 36 | 0.66 | 0.96 |
| Craig Hansen (2009) | 6.1 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 5.68 | 1.58 |
| Charlie Morton | 25.1 | 39 | 8 | 23 | 10.30 | 1.86 |
| Jeff Locke (A+) | 27.2 | 27 | 7 | 27 | 3.90 | 1.23 |
| Casey Erickson (A+) | 17 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 2.12 | 1.59 |
| Joel Hanrahan | 10.1 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 6.97 | 1.16 |
| Hunter Strickland (A+) | 33 | 41 | 8 | 9 | 5.73 | 1.49 |
| Nathan Adcock (A) | 32.1 | 33 | 7 | 34 | 3.34 | 1.24 |
| Brett Lorin (A-2009) | 123 | 94 | 35 | 116 | 2.20 | 1.05 |
| Aaron Pribanic (A+) | 30 | 41 | 6 | 21 | 4.80 | 1.57 |
| Tim Alderson (AA) | 29.1 | 41 | 8 | 21 | 6.14 | 1.67 |
| Jose Ascanio (AAA-2009) | 58 | 53 | 19 | 56 | 3.10 | 1.24 |
| Kevin Hart (AAA-2009) | 52.1 | 39 | 20 | 57 | 3.10 | 1.13 |
I used 2009 numbers for Ross Ohlendorf, Craig Hansen, Brett Lorin, Jose Ascanio, and Kevin Hart as injuries have delayed their seasons. Sure there’s some ugly pitching in there, but there’s also some decent depth that should help the team. Bryan Morris is the most intriguing of the bunch and I still hold out hope for a Tim Alderson rebound. There may an additional rotation-mate or two in the bunch, but I certainly see at least a couple pitchers that should thrive once switched to a relief role.
Let’s take a look at the hitters acquired:
| AVG | OBP | SLUG | OPS | SB | |
| Jose Tabata (AAA) | 0.345 | 0.414 | 0.454 | 0.867 | 16 |
| Andy LaRoche | 0.307 | 0.384 | 0.432 | 0.816 | 0 |
| Brandon Moss (AAA) | 0.242 | 0.327 | 0.347 | 0.674 | 3 |
| Robinzon Diaz | 0.192 | 0.213 | 0.233 | 0.446 | 0 |
| Jason Jaramillo | 0.280 | 0.308 | 0.440 | 0.748 | 0 |
| Delwyn Young | 0.250 | 0.313 | 0.386 | 0.699 | 0 |
| Gorkys Hernandez (AA) | 0.227 | 0.303 | 0.245 | 0.549 | 5 |
| Eric Fryer (A+) | 0.238 | 0.343 | 0.429 | 0.772 | 1 |
| Lastings Milledge | 0.243 | 0.302 | 0.318 | 0.619 | 3 |
| Argenis Diaz | 0.295 | 0.337 | 0.321 | 0.658 | 0 |
| Ronny Cedeno | 0.238 | 0.26 | 0.327 | 0.586 | 0 |
| Jeff Clement | 0.177 | 0.233 | 0.316 | 0.549 | 0 |
| Akinori Iwamura | 0.187 | 0.290 | 0.271 | 0.561 | 2 |
| Josh Harrison (AA) | 0.333 | 0.404 | 0.409 | 0.812 | 0 |
You can probably forget all the initial talk of Tabata being a power threat from back when he was with the Yankees, but he does have a chance to be a speed threat for the Bucs. Although LaRoche isn’t clubbing home runs like he did in the minors, he’s definitely hitting better this season. I am still a little perplexed by Iwamura’s hitting problems, but it is a relatively small sample size.
Let’s look at the prospects drafted. Below is a list of the players taken in the first three rounds of the two drafts that Huntington’s been at the helm for:
| Draftees | ||||||
| Pitchers | IP | H | BB | K | ERA | WHIP |
| Tanner Scheppers | (Did not sign) | |||||
| Victor Black (A-) | 31.1 | 26 | 15 | 33 | 3.45 | 1.309 |
| Brooks Pounders (Rk) | 23.2 | 19 | 11 | 20 | 3.04 | 1.268 |
| Hitters | AVG | OBP | SLUG | OPS | SB | |
| Pedro Alvarez (AAA) | 0.252 | 0.331 | 0.487 | 0.818 | 2 | |
| Jordy Mercer (AA) | 0.271 | 0.351 | 0.417 | 0.768 | 1 | |
| Tony Sanchez (A+) | 0.312 | 0.426 | 0.527 | 0.953 | 0 | |
| Evan Chambers (A) | 0.217 | 0.405 | 0.337 | 0.742 | 5 | |
The failure to sign Scheppers hurts as he is pitching very well in the Rangers’ minor league system. The other two pitchers have decent strikeout numbers, but the walks might kill their ability to stay in the rotation. The Bucs have been able to draft some interesting hitting talent in Pedro Alvarez and Tony Sanchez.
Then there’s the overall organizational talent rankings, as figured by Baseball America. The organization’s made some notable improvements since Huntington was hired. Not all of it his Neal’s doing, players like top pitching prospect Mike Lincoln are on the doorstep of the majors getting some finish work done in the minors. Even Neil Walker, who has gone from catcher to third base, to 2B/LF, is finally hitting again and may be called up soon.
| 2010 | 16 |
| 2009 | 18 |
| 2008 | 26 |
Now, with all of that said, I am not a fan of all of Huntington’s work. There have been a few moves that have made me shake my head. The trade for Lastings Milledgeclearly didn’t work out. But every GM has bad trades, even John Schuerholz had an occasional gaffe (see Teixeira, Mark). There’s also problems with ownership as the team has one of the lowest payrolls in the game.
Dear Jon, please realize that you can’t go from a “talent accumulation phase” right into a “contention phase” when there’s been so little to start from. It’s going to take some time Pirates fans (and some money from ownership too), be patient.
