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Where will the Top Free Agents Go? – 2009-2010
About every baseball writer tends to do a piece each year to pick where at least the top few free agents will go. To follow the crowd, TBO will conduct this shot-in-the-dark as well. Feel free to pick some of your own, but you might have a better chance at the lotto.
Hitters
Bengie Molina – Mets. The Mets aren’t truly settled at catcher and Molina gives the team some additional offense, which it needs.
Gregg Zaun – Giants. This is a tough one as I can definitely see the Rays keeping Zaun around at the relatively cheap $2 million option they hold on him. But Giants GM Brian Sabean likes aging players and Zaun helped Matt Wieters settle into Baltimore, he could help another standout catching prospect Buster Posey in San Francisco.
Adam LaRoche – Giants. The Braves are more interested in a righ-handed bat and may not be interested in keeping LaRoche long-term with Freddie Freeman on the way. Although LaRoche may be a little young for Sabean’s taste, he’ll provide some offense at the relative black hole that has been first base over the past few seasons.
Russell Branyan – Mariners. They are both interested in Branyan sticking around. It’s just how long Jack wants to commit to keeping Branyan around that seems like the issue.
Carlos Delgado – Mets. Minaya is interested in bringing Delgado back. But the aging Delgado might have to take a lesser role with left field filled (see Halladay) and the Mets wanting to play Dan Murphy more.
Troy Glaus - Rangers. The Rangers are looking for a right-handed bat. Troy Glaus will provide the team with a DH and a stop-gap at first base if Chris Davis doesn’t work out, while the wait for Justin Smoak‘s arrival.
Chone Figgins – Angels. The Angels would like to keep both Figgins and John Lackey, but they can probably only afford Figgins. I believe there is some concern on their part regarding Lackey’s health anyway.
Orlando Hudson – Nationals. The Nationals have expressed interest in him in the past. He’d be good for their middle infield defense and his .357 OBP would be better for the second spot in the order than Cristian Guzman’s .306.
Placido Polanco – Twins. Alexi Casilla hasn’t impressed and Gardenhire has campaigned for Cabrera to be re-signed for second base. But Cabrera will likely want to stay at short, signing elsewhere. The team might spend some money in their inaugural season in the new stadium to get Polanco’s defense and on-base ability. If the Mets are able to dump Luis Castillo, they might go after Hudson and Nationals would in-turn go after Polanco, changing the entire situation.
Felipe Lopez – Dodgers. Lopez has been pretty good since he’s gotten out of Washington. Hudson wasn’t a fit with Torre’s Dodgers and Belliard isn’t that great to watch defensively. Felipe may find a home in Dodgertown.
Marco Scutaro – Red Sox. Although the Jays would like to get him back, I believe that the Red Sox will spend the money they save by signing Bay over Holliday to grab Scutaro.
Orlando Cabrera – Blue Jays. The Blue Jays will likely not be able to meet Scutaro’s salary demands and will instead go with Cabrera at short. The Twins want him back, but I doubt Cabrera will want to move to second base.
Miguel Tejada – Astros. Keeping Tejada around for another year would give the Astros some insurance in case prospect Tommy Manzella doesn’t pan out. He should be better defensively with a regular starting job at third as well. This would give prospect Chris Johnson more development time in the minors too.
Juan Uribe – Mariners. Uribe came out the depths of ineffectiveness to play relatively well last season. He may be a short-term fit for the Mariners.
Adrian Beltre – Braves. This is where the real craziness starts to factor. Chipper Jones’ defense was ugly this season, a move back to left field or first base may let him concentrate more on hitting. They are also craving a right-handed power bat.
Mark DeRosa – Phillies. I liked the MLBTR pick on this one. Rumors from other sources also point this way. It seems like a good fit.
Mike Cameron – Cubs. The Cubbies are looking to deal away Milton Bradley. If they are able to dump Bradley, they may move Kosuke Fukudome back to right and give Cameron center. He may also go cross-town to the White Sox, moving Alex Rios back to right field.
Matt Holliday – Mets. The Cardinals need to keep Holliday around, but GM John Mozeliak doesn’t seem to mortgage the future of the team to pay Scott Boras’ demands. The Mets will likely step in with a major offer and sway Holliday away from St. Louis.
Jason Bay – Red Sox. Bay’s proven that he can hit in Boston. Although it may be tempting to go after Holliday, the Sox will stick with Bay and look into finding a left-handed first-baseman with the extra money.
Johnny Damon – Yankees. Damon still has decent speed on the base paths. His power numbers have also gone up in New York. He’s a decent fit to stay with the Yankees as they want more flexibility in the DH spot.
Vladimir Guerrero – White Sox. White Sox could go with Vlad as a DH and occasional right fielder, especially if they don’t sign Mike Cameron or Marlon Byrd.
Marlon Byrd – Rangers. Although the Cubs have been rumored to be interested in Byrd, I believe that they’ll go after Cameron instead. The Rangers are rumored to be wanting to move Josh Hamilton to a corner, letting Byrd play full-time in center.
Xavier Nady – Cardinals. After loosing out on Holliday, the Cardinals will likely sign the cheaper Nady. Nady will need to recoup some value after sitting out the season due to Tommy John surgery. He’ll make Mozeliak look good with a decent rebound season.
Rick Ankiel – Pirates. The Pirates have been rumored to have interest in Ankiel for some time. Although Ankiel was the feel good story of the Cardinals a year ago, it doesn’t seem like they care if he goes elsewhere.
Jermaine Dye – Giants. GM Brian Sabean loves veteran players. The bad side is that he’s expecting better results from a player that is obviously on the decline.
Coco Crisp – Royals. The Royals still need his defense in center and have been open to re-signing him.
Hideki Matsui – Mariners. I discussed this possibility in a previous posting. Since that posting I’ve read that scouts don’t believe he can play left field anymore. With the Griffey re-signing, that gap is filled. Matsui would still be a fit at first base/DH though.
Jim Thome – Athletics. Billy Bean loves big, lumbering, power-hitters with good on-base skills. Thome is a perfect fit and could come relatively cheap.
Pitchers
John Lackey – Brewers. Yes, I am that crazy. Doug Melvin needs an ace to take pressure off of Yovanni Gallardo. Doug’s intent on improving the rotation this off-season. He saved money by not re-signing Mike Cameron, he’s not paying J.J. Hardy anymore, and the team made a healthy deal to C.C. Sabathia last year to stay. If the New York teams get serious, things may change, but I can see Doug going all-out.
Joel Pineiro – Mets. He won’t fare as well without Dave Duncan, but Joel will go where the money is and the Mets are looking for additional pitching behind Santana. If they don’t get Lackey, the Mets will go after Pineiro.
Randy Wolf – Mets. The Mets need to solidify their rotation and they may sign two veteran starters to do it. I’m not too big on Randy Wolf outside of Chavez Ravine, but the Mets may sign him anyway.
Andy Pettitte – Yankees. He’s a Yankee. If he continues his career, he’ll be in a Yankee uniform.
Jarrod Washburn – Mariners. The Mariners need some experience in the rotation and Washburn could go back to the them if Lackey signs with the Brew Crew. If Lackey doesn’t I can see Washburn in Milwaukee.
Jon Garland - Dodgers. Garland had a 2.72 ERA for the Dodgers after the trade (although his peripheral stats weren’t as good). They may be interested in keeping him around for the back of the rotation.
Carl Pavano – Twins. The Twins have shown interest in keeping the veteran around for more after they traded for him last season.
Erik Bedard – Cardinals. Dave Duncan is great at remaking pitchers into great starters. He’s brought Chris Carpenter back from major surgery to become a front-line starter twice, he’ll do the same with Bedard.
Jason Marquis – Mets. He’s friends with Jeff Francoeur and there’s been rumors about his desire to play there.
Rich Harden – Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks may be enticed by Harden’s nice K/9. His injuries may eventually force him to relief though where he could be a dominant presence at the back end.
Doug Davis – Brewers. Signing both Lackey and Doug Davis would admittedly be a stretch. But if they aren’t able to grab Lackey, I believe that Washburn and Davis would be towards the top of their list.
John Smoltz – Cardinals. Smoltz liked his time in St. Louis and it would be cheaper than re-signing Joel Piniero.
Justin Duchscherer – A’s. Justin will sign a one year with the Athletics to re-establish his value to get a larger contract after the 2010 season.
Ben Sheets – Rangers. Although the Brewers may like to have him back, they may be less inclined to sign him due to his injury history with them. Although the Rangers had some decent performance from Scott Feldman and Tommy Hunter, they need some veteran leadership in the rotation beyond Kevin Millwood.
Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox. Boston’s been in on Chapman the entire time and they have the ability to spend money on Chapman and hide him in the minors as he develops.
Brad Penny – Giants. Penny performed relatively well in Frisco and they’ve been interested in bringing him back.
Jose Valverde – Yankees. By the end of the post-season, Yankees fans were biting their nails every time Girardi went to the pen (other than for Rivera). They are telling a few of their current bullpen regulars to prepare as they would be starting next season. The Yankees may be preparing to improve their pen. Although Valverde wants to close, a big paycheck from the Yankees could make him into a dominant setup man in front of Rivera.
Mike Gonzalez – Phillies. If Brad Lidge rebounds, Gonzalez will be a shut-down lefty setup man for the Phillies pen. If he doesn’t, Gonzalez can step into the closer spot with ease.
Rafael Soriano – Angels. Although Brian Fuentes racked up the saves, the team may have lost confidence in him. Soriano has electric stuff to step into the closer role if Fuentes falters again.
Billy Wagner – Braves. With Gonzalez and Soriano leaving via free agency, the Braves may be interested in a deal with Billy Wagner.
Fernando Rodney – Orioles. With the plethora of decent closer options on the market, Rodney may become relatively affordable to a team like the Baltimore Orioles.
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