It’s Just Speculation: Roy Oswalt to the Dodgers

Yesterday we listed the potential suitors in the possible upcoming Roy Oswalt derby.  But let’s not just stop there, how about full-out speculation?  Let’s take some potential suitors and see what they could offer the Astros for Oswalt.  For this short series, we’ll take John Sickels’ Top 20 Prospects lists over at Minor League Ball and snatch a few players off that great listing to make up a potential trade package.

As a disclaimer, it’s just speculation, this is not a rumor.  We also have to consider that there’s a likelihood that Astros GM Ed Wade and owner Drayton McLane will have to kick in some money in the deal.  The quality of the prospects that would come back in the trade would likely relate to the amount of money included.  Also, Ed Wade’s leverage has been lessened somewhat by Oswalt’s trade demand.  He doesn’t have to deal Roy, but it could be a potential negative media storm if he doesn’t.

With all that in mind, let’s look at one of the suitors, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been lingered in 3rd place in the NL West much of the season, but are now in 2nd.  Memories of Kevin Malone have an article up on Roy Oswalt and whether or not they need him.  Bill Shaikin of the LA Times (MLBTR link) reports that they have at least kicked the tires on him.  Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, even rookie Jon Ely have pitched well in the early going.  But they have gotten bad performances from Vicente Padilla (6.65 ERA), Ramon Ortiz (6.30 ERA), and Charlie Haeger (8.49 ERA).  Adding a fifth solid pitcher and providing insurance against a late-season rookie regression of Ely may push the Dodgers into considering a trade. 

What would it take?  I imagine that the bidding will likely start with two of the team’s top arms in the system.  Likely a combination that includes a couple from a pack of Chris Withrow, Ethan Martin, Aaron Miller, and Scott Elbert.  They might then pick an outfielder in the lower levels of the system, but with interesting upside as they prepare for the post-Carlos Lee era in 2013.  Power slugging, but strikeout prone Kyle Russell and the toolsy Jonathan Garcia fit the bill.

In the end, I believe that the Astros go after Withrow (B+, Sickels), Miller (B), and a Kyle Russell (C+).

Cliff Lee is the closest comparable that I can find at this time.  The Mariners gave up pitchers Phillippe Aumont (B-) and Juan Ramirez (B-), as well as outfielder Tyson Gillies (C+).  There were quite a few at the time that mentioned that Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn’t get enough for him.

Is this enough?  Is it too much?  Who’d you throw in a package for the Astros’ ace?


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